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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $500,000 The Coast (1600m) at Gosford on Saturday, with the likelihood of at least a soft 6/7 track considered.

1. Lady In Pink (Leon & Troy Corstens & Will Larkin): Clearly the highest rated horse in the race and a last start Group 2 placegetter in Adelaide after doing a power of work in the run. She’s proven at 2000m so a tough mile, if the track does get testing, shouldn’t harm her and she has a favourable racing pattern on her side. Stable won this race last year and reports are this mare is adept in the wet as Magnaspin was a year ago. She’s only third-up and commands plenty of respect.

Depth Of Character (Pic: Trackside)

2. Depth Of Character (Annabel & Rob Archibald): He’s long threatened to be a smart one and he’s heading in that direction after successive wins in Queensland including last week’s Guineas over the mile. He’s taken up a position in both his wins and looked quite strong running out the mile. If there’s a query it’s that he hasn’t raced on anything worse than a soft 5 in his 14 starts. But he’s on the back up which is always a plus and he’s hard to ignore.

3. Townsend (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Shapes as a big improver up to a mile on a soft to heavy track after failing when resuming at Randwick three weeks ago. He went forward fresh at 1400m and was one of the first horses beaten as he dropped away soon after straightening. His form last preparation was far too good to be knocking him on one run and he has a couple of pluses here with a softer track and the likelihood of getting a degree of control in front. So that’s his case to turn it around.

4. Wootton Verni (Chris Waller): A real head scratcher when he made his local debut at Randwick two weeks ago, he was backed like the result was a formality but didn’t attack the line at all. Sure he had a wide run but it was wide with cover so that’s not so much an excuse. You could say the winner did control the race and kick away, and confirm the form by winning the Hawkesbury Cup last week, so hard to condemn on the evidence of one run. He won on a heavy track in France as a two-year-old, safe to say he won’t be favourite here but no surprise if he does improve.

5. Vivy Air (Ciaron Maher): Big Dance runner-up in the spring to Gringotts but her two runs back haven’t been quite as dashing. Settled back and didn’t make a whole lot of ground in the Tamworth Cup but you’d have to say her best runs in recent times have been at the mile and she gets there third-up. She was placed in a Sandown Guineas on a soft 7 at the mile so it’s not like she can’t handle it and if she’s going to find some form she has a good chance to do that.

6. Les Vampires (SCRATCHED).

7. Royal Supremacy (Ciaron Maher): Import first-up in Australia at a trip that should allow him to be competitive. Brings some interesting form with a string of placings at Group level in Europe up to his last start over 2615m. One public trial, imagine being based at Bong Bong he’s had at least one other jump out and he fared well on a heavy track behind the speedy Whinchat. Drawn out, so tactics will be interesting, but any support is significant and you’d have to keep a close eye on him.

8. Mare Of Mt Buller (Chris Waller): Consistent mare who was smartly ridden through the field to win the Epona over the 1900m on Golden Slipper Day and she hasn’t raced or trialled (publicly) since. Form at a mile is sound and a wet track shouldn’t bother her, she did run third on a heavy 10 over 1800m this time last year at the Gold Coast. Likely gets back and will always run on in her races so her chances come down to tempo and pattern.

9. Scarlet Oak (SCRATCHED).

10. Know Thyself (Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich): Country Championships winner who reacted very well to stepping up to the mile at Randwick three weeks after that win and lumped 61kg to win on a soft track. He’s grown flippers whenever he’s seen a wet track, including his romp in the Wild Card on his home track on a heavy 10. Only other run at the mile prior to last time was a third in the Winx Guineas on a heavy track last year and he had excuses beaten a length. He’ll roll forward to some degree and be handy and he’s going to revel in the ground.

Know Thyself (Pic: Bradley Photos).

11. You Wahng (Kris Lees): Lightly raced filly who comes back to the mile after a game third in the Australian Oaks at 2400m a month ago. They went very slowly up front in that race and she sat handy to that pace, boxing on to be beaten under a length by Treasurethe Moment. Perhaps 2400m is at the top of her distance range and she’s more a 2000m horse. If that’s the case she’s in the mix as she is a heavy track winner, so any kind of wet isn’t an issue, and she has a soft run assured from the inside.

12. Raf Attack (Ciaron Maher): Never a chance at his first run for the new stable so it’s hard to get a line on how well he’s going for the moment. He’s been a little on the hit and miss side though showed his ability at three winning a Gloaming. A soft 6 is as deep as he’s gone track wise so there is some query there. What is a plus for him is a much kinder draw so if he does handle the ground we’ll be able to get a better indication going forward.

13. Rapt (Jason Deamer): Backmarker who was six weeks between runs going into the Provincial-Midway Final at Randwick a month ago and she ran a creditable race coming from near last to finish midfield. Mile is no problem, wet is no problem, the draw could see her settle a pair or two closer and she will be running on. If they are swooping she’s not without an each-way chance.

14. Thunderlips (Bjorn Baker): Did a good job to win second-up racing on the speed off a wide gate at Kensington on Anzac Day making it his fourth win on a soft track. From the barrier you’d imagine he will roll forward and look to be in that spot which should be available outside the speed. Drops 7kg so that will give him every chance to be competitive in what is a deeper race.

15. Yankee One (SCRATCHED).

16. Engine Room (SCRATCHED).

SPEED MAP: Some of the pace has come out and it probably leaves Townsend as the leader. Thunderlips likely comes across outside him and brings Know Thyself over somewhere just behind the speed. Lady In Pink and You Wahng drawn inside gates can hold positions not far away and Depth Of Character has been racing in the first five or so at a mile. Question marks over where Royal Supremacy and Raf Attack land.

SELECTIONS:
10 KNOW THYSELF
1 Lady In Pink
2 Depth Of Character
3 Townsend

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Gosford meeting