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Selections by Brad Gray

The rail is out 10m from the 1600m to the winning post and out 7m the remainder, with the track rated a Heavy 9. There is a very high chance of showers today but easing to little or no rain on Saturday with a top of 23 degrees on raceday.

Saturday 24th May – ROYAL RANDWICK

5. AGARWOOD ($2.60 favourite on TAB) couldn’t have been any more impressive on debut at Warwick Farm and it was a win that ticked every box. The daughter of Wooton Bassett jumped on terms but once she was cleared she was happy to settle in behind the speed. She dropped her head and when asked to quicken put a margin on her rivals. She beat second by 2.5 lengths and third by over three lengths. What also stands out is that she clocked a time half a second quicker than the colts and gelding’s 1000m race at the same meeting. That was won by 2. Regulated Affair ($4.60). Her time was even quicker, marginally, than the BM72 won by Pokerjack. Two-year-olds running faster time than the older horses is a big tick. Waterhouse & Bott won that same race 12 months earlier with Clean Energy. How she handles the jump straight out to 1200m on a heavy track is the punt.

Dangers: 3. Sequista ($3.80) has been scratched several times since she tackled the Percy Sykes. That sees her tackle Saturday’s race six weeks between runs. There is no denying her depth of form having come from well back to run third on debut behind Within The Law before finishing two lengths away from Tempted, arguably the season’s best two-year-old. 2. Regulated Affair didn’t run the time Agarwood clocked on debut but he was dominant and started $1.45. The query going into that was whether he was sharp enough for 1000m as his class got him home. Expect further improvement out to 1200m now. 7. Aristocrat ($41) was the best of the closers behind Regulated Affair after being beaten for speed early. He’ll love 1200m too. As will 11. Swift Legend ($41), coming through that same race.

How To Play It: Agarwood WIN

9. FIRST MISSION ($4 fav) returned as a gelding at Canterbury over 1200m and landed confident late bets to win like a horse that should go through his grades. This Midway looks a perfect stepping stone out to 1400m. He still isn’t the finished article but the operation looks to have him on the right path given the way he executed three weeks ago. He settled one out one back, quickened and ran through the line. It’s no easy task winning in any grade first-up on a heavy track and that’s what this three-year-old achieved. He had only one official trial prior too. Zac Wadick takes the ride on Saturday which sees the son of Snitzel carry 53.5kg. It looks a clever claim given the likely conditions come the weekend.

Dangers: 15. Oui Oui Oui ($6) is another untapped three-year-old and he lines up for just his fourth start here. He charged home from a seemingly impossible spot first-up to win his maiden at Kembla Grange before being deep ended in the Hawkesbury Guineas where he was only beaten four lengths. 5. Flying Embers ($4.80) has won three of her past four starts and the defeat was a photo finish. Settled handy at Kembla Grange last start on a heavy track and justified the price to win well. 14. Bend The Knee ($23) made up late ground to run third at the midweeks last start. The run was better than the form guide reads as it wasn’t easy work for backmarkers at that meeting. The wetter the better for the six-year-old given how he won at Wyong on a Heavy 10 two back. 13. Callistemon ($19) raced well last campaign without winning and did enough first-up.

How To Play It: First Mission WIN

If a dry track confronted us ahead of Saturday, you’d be happy to take the short odds about 2. SO YOU PENCE ($2.40 fav). The lightly-raced five-year-old is making up for lost time having spent over two years on the sidelines prior to this campaign. She raced like she needed it first-up, despite beating third by four lengths. Since then she had recorded two wins by a combined margin of 10 lengths. She was sent around $1.35 at Goulburn, winning by near seven lengths before starting a similar price at Wagga. Has good tactical speed, race sense and a turn of foot. The unknown on Saturday is how the daughter of So You Think handles a heavy track. She has only ever raced on good tracks. If Matt Dale is happy to run, that might be a push in itself.

Dangers: 1. My Last Hooray ($18) has improved with each run this time back and has a heavy track already win to his name, albeit in easier grade. He overachieved relative to his starting price at Warwick Farm last start in BM72 company. After settling out the back he made late ground behind Secure. 8. Plenitude ($16) hit the line at Gosford in Highway company two weeks ago. That was as an $8 chance. Failed to muster early which saw him settle further back than expected. 12. Bakhita ($17) comes through that same Mckeon Highway, beaten narrowly. Handles wet ground and that was only her seventh start. 4. Shropshire Lad ($5) scrambled home to win at Scone last Friday. Gets winkers first time. 10. A Pound Of Salt ($13) is the next best.

How To Play It: So You Pence WIN

5. HURSTVILLE ZAGREB ($4.40) was eight weeks between runs when resuming at Gosford. The O’Shea & Charlton-trained galloper had to be stoked up early but kept finding the line to go down in a photo finish. A dropped whip in the straight may have proved costly. The progression out to 1800m looks perfect now as he lopes towards the Queensland Derby. The son of Divine Prophet is an imposing three-year-old but he just needs time to wind up. The Randwick expanses and a heavy track should at least ensure he isn’t outsprinted. He won on a heavy track at Goulburn in maiden grade and looked very comfortable in the going. There is of course more depth here but he should handle the ground. Stayer with huge upside at just start four on Saturday.

Dangers: 4. Duvana ($9) had excuses through that same race at Gosford last start yet was still beaten less than a length and he didn’t get the chance to build into the race. Gosford is a momentum track and he had to make his run underneath the field too. That was inferior ground in the straight. Duvana, out of Stay With Me, has a heavy track win to his name. It was, however, a Goulburn maiden. 9. Sisu Spirit ($4.20 fav) wasn’t given much early peace at Wyong last start but kept running through the line to win well. There were huge gaps throughout the field. He skipped through the Heavy 10 track there too and will have no problem with 1800m off that win. She is out of a Zabeel mare. Kiwi filly 3. She’s A Dealer ($7) is Queensland Oaks bound. Respect the placement of the stable. Socks Nation ran this race last year, before winning the Oaks. 1. Last Command ($11) just needs to stay in touch early.

How To Play It: Hurstville Zagreb WIN

7. AHURIRI ($3.80 fav) relished the conditions at Canterbury Park last start where it turned into a test of stamina on a heavy track. The form through that race hasn’t stacked up and she loses Nash Rawiller. Looks well found but has always promised plenty but could go on with it now.

Dangers: 5. Philipsburg ($34) closed off well at Gosford two weeks ago despite finishing ninth. He had to concede too big of a head start. He still has to win over the 2400m but he’s only had two tries. A trip to Queensland rejuvenated this stayer and he loves heavy tracks. Hard fit and great value. 1. Shahzad ($8.50) was second-up 2200m on a heavy track in Queensland last start yet won well. There was 4.5 lengths back to third. 8. Awesome Wonder ($14) can improve while 10. Wuddzz ($5.50) loves wet ground.

How To Play It: Ahuriri WIN

10. WINNING PROPOSAL ($11) jumped awkwardly at Gosford two weeks ago which saw her settle second last and it proved costly. She fanned widest in the straight, finding the line behind Lulumon. She tackled that race six weeks between runs and it was her first for the Bjorn Baker stable. The filly had trialled well on two occasions prior but there’d be natural improvement to come from that run. Earlier in her career she handled heavy tracks, winning at Warwick Farm having settled handy and Scintilla ran third in that race. She was then beaten two lengths by Brave One and Mayfair at Randwick over 1100m on a Heavy 9. The daughter of Shalaa stays at 1000m but that’s offset by the testing track. A cleaner getaway can see her settle closer and her early price appeals.

Dangers: 13. Miss Jennifer ($14) was luckless in that same Lulumon 1000m race. She attempted to go through the field but struck traffic then zipped home in fast closing splits. That was despite being 38 weeks between runs. Handles wet ground but it dulls her turn of foot. 12. Storm The Ramparts ($8) beat both of those runners home last start. Loves wet ground and Joe Pride elects to put the blinkers on again and he had them on the last time he won. 5. Epic Proportions ($6.50) kept chasing at Hawkesbury first-up when second to Able Willie on a heavy track. The drop back to 1000m from 1100m looks okay given the conditions. Has been freshened three weeks since. 4. Grand Larceny ($4.60 fav) would be top pick on a good track.

How To Play It: Winning Proposal EACH-WAY

2. HOPEFUL ($18 on TAB) hasn’t won for three years, however, he loves heavy tracks. In his five runs in Australian in heavy tracks he has never finished worse than second. The latest three being seconds to Sir Lucan, Eliyass and Circle Of Fire. He arguably should have beaten Eliyass too, if not for being held up in the straight. The eight-year-old failed to let down on a firm track in the Sydney Cup before reappearing four weeks later in the Gosford Cup. His run wasn’t as bad as it appears on paper. He never got the chance to build into the race, shuffled back into an impossible spot. Drops back to BM88 company and gets in well after Braith Nock’s claim. If Hopeful is ever going to break the drought ...

Dangers: 8. Zaphod ($3.90 fav) was seven weeks between runs at Randwick last start when second to Les Vampire, the subsequent Gosford Cup winner. The lightly-raced gelding strips fitter for that and looks perfectly placed out to 2000m now. Handles all going. 5. Bear On The Loose’s ($7.50) four career wins have come on wet tracks. He was impressive in his first Australian start, winning at Rosehill. That is the only time he has raced on a heavy track. Led up the Wagga Cup field before weakening late. 1. Glory Daze ($23) gave away too big of a head start at Randwick a month ago and he raced like he wants 2000m now third-up. Great record this track and over this distance. 6. Collect Your Cash ($6), 9. Jamberoo ($6.50) and 11. Asgoodasobergets ($6) all come into this last start winners.

How To Play It: Hopeful EACH-WAY

3. GREEN FLY ($4.60) didn’t get a lot of room to let down at Randwick last start and once he angled into the clear the race was over. There was no catching Punch Lane regardless but he should have finished closer. The six-year-old brings that upon himself given his lack of tactical speed but he should be able to use the inside draw to settle handier. Drawing barrier 1 at Randwick on a heavy track may pose different problems again, pending on the pattern of the day, but he loves wet ground and well set up out to the mile now third-up. He ran down 6. Cool Jakey ($2.80 favourite) first-up from a seemingly impossible position and he’ll need to do the same again on Saturday. However, Cool Jakey is on trial at the mile, yet Green Fly has won out to 1900m. Will need luck at the right time but if he gets it, he’ll take holding out.

Dangers: The timing is right to find out with Cool Jakey over this trip. Fought back to beat Gallant Star at Hawkesbury last start but may have been a touch flattered by the way the track played but he’s hard fit and you exactly where he’ll be in the run. Have to take a slight set against him over the mile in the context of his price though. 1. Bold Mac ($10) is a magnet for trouble and hasn’t had a clean run all campaign. He is flying without luck and would be more confident on a soft track as opposed to heavy but respect his last start second behind Punch Lane. Forgive the finishing position of 13. Rapt ($10) last start in The Coast as she was forced back to the inside. 12. Hollywood Hero ($8) ran well behind Cool Jakey first-up and can only improve. A heavy track perhaps isn’t ideal for him either though.

How To Play It: Green Fly WIN

5. KING OF ROSEAU ($4.20 fav) is banging door down to win another race. The three-year-old remains stuck on one win from 14 starts but he was tried in better company earlier in his career. He resumed a gelding this time back and has built nicely into his campaign. The son of Capitalist has gone down narrowly in three runs back, the latest was behind Raikkonen at Gosford. The margin flattered King Of Roseau given the winner was throttled down late but the way he ran through the line suggests he wants 1400m now. The Peter Snowden-trained galloper is unknown on heavy ground. He’s run well on soft in the past, including last start, but this is uncharted territory and has the right grounding to find out.

Dangers: 18. Spione ($4.40) is untapped and improving sharply with just the four starts to his name. He won in a busy finish at Pakenham first-up before running a luckless second over this same track and trip a month ago behind Yankee One. He is still doing things wrong yet still fighting out finishes and that suggests there is more to come. 4. Thunderlips ($6.50) dropped back to the midweeks last start and got the job done. He’s a Saturday class horse and has trialled well since to bridge the month between runs. 6. Cruel Summer ($11) chases three straight. Loses Rachel King but he loves heavy ground. As does 11. Margie’s Boy ($19) who was no match for King Of Roseau two starts ago but he wasn’t beaten all that far and has held that form since. 2. Excelladus ($19) dipped second-up but he can do that. Can improve. And 7. Hiyaam Proud ($4.60) has had five jumpouts ahead of his return for Matt Laurie.

How To Play It: King Of Roseau WIN

13. MISS KIM KAR ($5) hasn’t had much luck with barriers in her two runs back. That has seen her get back in the field, setting her a task too big. Despite that she has rattled home into third on both occasions. Again she draws wide on Saturday but that mightn’t be a disadvantage come the last race at Randwick on a deteriorating track, so keep an eye on any patterns. This filly has come back in really good order. Had she drawn better she’d just about have won both first and second-up. This is a filly that has won from in front before and she has tactical speed. The daughter of Pierata has also won out to 1550m so the step out to 1400m suits now and her form lines tie in with the main chances here. Just has to handle a heavy track.

Dangers: 10. She’s Unusual ($4.60) doesn’t have to answer the heavy track query as she loves the ground. Resumed with an eye-catching second to Thunderlips first-up, stays at 1400m but is four weeks between runs. 7. Flying Thinker ($9) was six weeks between runs when fourth at Warwick Farm behind 3. Drift Net ($4.40 fav) last start and comes on from that. She too loves heavy tracks. 5. Hellbent On You ($12) matched motors with Miss Kim Kar at Warwick Farm when beaten by Candlewick, before a winner herself on a heavy track. She has never raced better. If there’s a little niggle with last start winner Drift Net, it’s running out a strong 1400m on a heavy track. Was good to see her put a race away though. 8. Allapercanto’s ($11) form last campaign deserved a win. Not sure about her first-up on a bottomless track though.

How To Play It: Miss Kim Kar WIN

View final fields with full form & race replays for Royal Randwick here