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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 3 $250,000 Richmond Club Hawkesbury Gold Cup (1600m) run at Hawkesbury on Saturday.

1. My Oberon (Annabel & Rob Archibald): We’re over 900 days since his last win and it’s fair to say he’s hard to catch, but he is very good on his day. Last preparation he placed in the 7 Stakes behind Fangirl and ran third in the King Charles III to Ceolwulf and Pride Of Jenni. Even with the 60kg here that sort of form is more than good enough. Didn’t get into the race when he resumed in the All Aged Stakes so probably best to overlook that. He’s very much a take on trust prospect but sting out is good for him and it would be no shock to see him in the finish.

2. Welwal (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): He was one of the hidden runs out of the Benchmark 100 won by Sandpaper at Randwick as he worked home strongly, running race best sectionals, to finish midfield beaten a few lengths. He’ll be a fitter proposition and going to the mile on a wet track is right up his alley. He is generally a backmarker so he won’t want to be giving away as much start as last time and he’s a genuine each-way chance.

3. Mighty Ulysses (Annabel & Rob Archibald): Settled in a close enough position in the Sandpaper race when he resumed a couple of weeks ago and kept coming without looking like the winner. Soft track is no issue for him and it’s noticeable his second-up record reads three wins from four attempts. He’s another that is a bit on the hit or miss side and whether barrier one will help is a query but he’s also capable of showing up under the right circumstances.

Mighty Ulysses (Pic: Bradley Photos).

4. Osipenko (Chris Waller): Hard to miss his outstanding first-up performance in the All Aged Stakes where he showed he’s come back as well as when he went out a winner earlier this year. Came from near last and ran a very fast 400m-200m before just knocking up that last bit. It was a super return in obviously a strong race. So he will be better for the run, he’s well weighted and is adept in all conditions. The mile is a plus, he’s drawn perfectly for the style of horse he is and if he’s not looking for 2000m already he should be right in the finish.

5. Punch Lane (Anthony & Sam Freedman): Backing up for the third week in a row and on the back of that dominant all the way win on testing ground at Randwick last week. He’s going to get relatively similar conditions and from that inside draw you’d imagine he pounces on the lead and looks to get some control. He hasn’t won past 1500m but he hasn’t been tried at it so can’t knock him on that score. You know what you’re going to get with him and he can give a sight.

6. Athabascan (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Right back in trip after running his usual honest race in the Sydney Cup where he finished fifth. This is half that distance and he’s yet to win below 2000m so this race is clearly being used to keep him ticking over before heading onto something else back out in trip. Can’t imagine he will be in the finish at the mile but keep an eye on how he gets home.

7. Alegron (Bjorn Baker): Another two miler who is resuming in this race, as he did last year on his way to winning the Brisbane Cup. He improved second-up then became competitive third-up out further in trip so the stable would be happy with him hitting the line. A win would be surprising.

8. Regal Zeus (John McArdle): Interesting runner who likes to race on speed and he brings successive wins in Victoria into this race. Stepped from 1200m to 1600m and held them off in the Golden Mile at Bendigo last time so will be better for the run at the trip this time around. He has quite a consistent record with eight wins from 23 starts and if he doesn’t get into a tussle with Punch Lane he can be hard to run down.

9. Tavi Time (Kris Lees): Never runs a bad race and was excellent when resuming at Randwick two week ago where he ran on from midfield and failed by less than half a length. He has a great second-up record and the mile is obviously no trouble as he did beat Osipenko in the Summer Cup at 2000m. He’ll look to land midfield somewhere again with some cover and get to the outside and it’d be a surprise if he’s not charging at them at the finish.

10. Strait Acer (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Talented type on his day but it’s now nearly 600 days since his last win. First run for the new stable was below par, he didn’t improve from midfield and wasn’t finishing the race off as you’d like to see. Drops 4kg so that will help and if he can rediscover his best form it’s good enough to be placed here at least.

11. Floating (Matthew Smith): Handy wet tracker and was forgivable in his first-up run behind Sandpaper, he also generally improves with a run or two. Nice weight drop for him and the soft conditions are ideal for him. He improved second-up last prep before winning third-up so expect him to run a nice race here and if they are coming down the middle he can be a player. Each-way.

Matcha Latte (Pic: Bradley Photos).

12. Matcha Latte (Sara Ryan): Goes to a mile now for the first time in two years having contested the Provincial-Midway Championships series at 1400m in three runs this time in. He came from just off the speed to win the Final in a strong performance and he has the draw to get a similar sort of run up in distance here. He doesn’t run bad races, he gets in with a great weight and loves the give in the ground so there’s plenty to recommend him.

13. Honey Girl (Ciaron Maher): Sent out $51 when resuming in the Emancipation and didn’t do such a bad job after racing wide up close to the pace. Will be fitter for that and has to be open to some improvement. That said she’s not yet shown a lot in three other runs since she arrived here. Chance for her to step up with a light weight and handy draw but prefer to see her again.

14. Mare Of Mt Buller (Chris Waller): Very honest mare who was well ridden through the field from a long way back to win the Epona third-up some six weeks ago. She’s fresh for the drop to the mile where she was placed in her first two runs this time in. She’ll likely get back in the second half and look to come to the outside and she’ll be hitting the line, she’s been racing too well not to.

15. Green Fly (Anthony & Sam Freedman): Amazing effort to run Cool Jakey down first-up at Rosehill then made plenty of ground last week in the race dominated by his stablemate Punch Lane. Potentially this race will be run a bit differently and that may allow him to get into the race. As he showed fresh he has a big finish on him and he does love wet ground so you couldn’t leave him out of the chances.

16. Rapt (Jason Deamer): Won a Provincial-Midway Championships qualifier at this track before going into the Final with a six week gap and she ran well but settled way too far back. Was a Midway winner over the mile back in December, her third win at the trip from as many starts, so it’s just a class question with her. She’ll get back and run on.

SPEED MAP: Punch Lane is a noted on pacer and Regal Zeus is a similar type who has drawn out a bit so there should be some good early pressure. Matcha Latte takes the trail behind them, Honey Girl probably looks to be handy as well. Away from them it's left to Osipenko and Mighty Ulysses to use their draws and not be too far away. My Oberon generally settles a lot closer than he did first-up too. Possibly a bit of early pace and they could back off depending on which leader takes it up.

SELECTIONS:
4 OSIPENKO
12 Matcha Latte
9 Tavi Time
2 Welwal

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Hawkesbury meeting