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Neil Evans' Tips For Taree (Monday)

By Neil Evans

Track Heavy 9 and rail True::

Race 1 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1900m):

We start over a longer trip with the maidens on a track gradually drying out, and may even get back to Soft 7 range. Provincial-based 13. Oakfield Hawk charged home from the back in heavy ground here third-up, and was further boosted by a rise in distance.

Dangers: Over the odds is 1. Born Conqueror fifth-up, and having won here from the front in similar conditions two starts ago. Gap to the rest headed by honest 6. Highland Raider who draws to get good cover also up in trip, and is very fit; while home tracker 3. Crown'm, and 7. Flyball both coming through similar formlines, can add plenty of value into trifecta and first fours.

How to play it: Oakfield Hawk to win

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1250m):

In a tough and wide race, plenty of value here about ex-Victorian mare 11. Lady Highland who has her first outing for the new local stable off a near 12-month break. Did next to nothing in two runs over the border last year, but did a lot wrong both times, and has been given plenty of time since heading north. Bred to get much further, trialled okay, and will be strong late.

Dangers: Watch the betting on debutant Harry Angel gelding 4. Howzat Harry who has trialled well enough. Provided the inside going is okay, rival first starter 7. Salsero, a son of 2014 Cox Plate winner Adelaide, looks a threat. Local 5. Otium finds a race with a little less depth at his fourth start, with some weight relief. Including third-up improvers 9. Cape Blame with an important gear change; and 10. Durusehvar who gets a key jockey change; in wider exotic plays.

How to play it: Lady Highland each way

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

Provincial-based 2. Exorealm is primed to make a big statement on debut as a gelding. Has progressed through two trials, the latest strong through the line at Gosford in soft ground. Bred to handle the going being by Group 1-winning powerhouse Exosphere, and the jockey booking is significant. The one to beat.

Dangers: Home track filly 5. Floss's One is banging on the door at her fourth start. Has found one better in her last two when rock solid in the market both times, and sneaks down in the weights after the jockey's 2kg allowance. Be surprised if the winner comes outside that pair, but keep safe 7. Grandini who debuts off a nice trial win in heavy ground. Big gap to the rest.

How to play it: Exorealm to win

Race 4 SUPER MAIDEN HCP (1400m):

Progressive 2. Naahro is well suited here fourth-up in a weakened race after two solid closing efforts in superior provincial company, and was preferred here to Sunday's Showcase Gunnedah meeting.

Dangers: Keep very safe lightly raced 1. Ain't She Swell who did her best work late first-up in a tougher line-up at Newcastle, and relishes rain-affected ground. Gap to the rest headed by 9. She's Got Teeth second-up; and 7. Jed deep into his prep.

How to play it: Naahro to win

Race 5 CLASS 2 HCP (1400m):

Handy depth here, and naturally plenty of chances. No reason, though why exciting and lightly raced Scone filly 8. Tornado Express can't make it three wins on the bounce stepping up in class over a furlong further. Has charged home from the second half of the field both times this prep beating handy country fields, and this isn't much tougher. Drawn to park a little bit closer in the run, and typical of the Toronado stock, the extra journey is right up his alley.

Dangers: Provincially filly 2. Bangetta will appreciate a significant drop back from metro opposition third-up. Honest filly 7. Lady Soames has been sparingly raced this year, but now with conditions to suit, backs up in a week after powering home from near last to miss narrowly in heavy ground here in BM 58 company. Watch the market around Gold Coast-based filly 3. Crazy In Love who returns for her first run in 38 weeks since transferring up from Victoria. Drawn the fence, 4. Kaihoho is also in the each way mix, dropping back from tougher Saturday CL2 Highway level.

How to play it: Tornado Express to win

Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1250m):

Provincial filly 10. Yamba's Girl can make it two from two in ideal conditions on a seven day back-up. Tracked the speed before driving home on a Heavy 10 here to win on debut, and looked to have plenty in hand on the line. Staying at this distance is a further pointer.

Dangers: Tough and consistent 1. Twilight Rock was unlucky not to win first-up at Muswellbrook when hitting the line after being forced to change course at the 100m. Despite only one win from 16 starts, has been placed a further 11 times and loves these conditions, but the inside ground may be a concern. Watch the betting on 2. Tiddilywinx who is the best of the rest second-up ahead of 7. Dreams Of Thunder fourth-up.

How to play it: Yamba's Girl to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1250m):

Exciting Wyong four-year-old 5. Oakfield Badger can continue building an impressive record, and take his winning strike rate to better than 50 percent from seven starts. Was too strong late after stalking the speed to win a CL3 here in heavy going when fresh before dropping out in a much deeper Saturday Midway BM 72 when ridden way too close. Regular jockey is back on, and he can settle back around midfield and get to the middle of the track past the 300m.

Dangers: Ultra consistent 1. Reggie's Boy has won two of his last three on heavy ground up to this level, and rarely puts in a bad one, although now asked to carry 60kg. Improving 3. Olivia's Spirit was very strong late third-up in that recent win behind the former when forced to cover plenty of ground from back in the field. Keep very safe progressive and sparingly-raced filly 8. La Boqueria who finished best to win a weaker race at Ipswich 16 days ago. Include 11. Tough Case in all exotic bets.

How to play it: Oakfield Badger to win

Race 8 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Tough home tracker 1. Where's The Fire has been up for a long time, but well placed in this ground to claim a third career win at his 20th start on a seven day back-up. Powered home from the back to win a handy CL1 at Muswellbrook four starts ago before mixing his form in deeper fields. Found his best here last start, surging home late to miss by a half length in a BM 58 with a little more depth. Just needs early cover back in the field before being given his head from the 400m.

Dangers: Plenty of them headed by 8. Cupid's Kiss who also backs up quickly from that same race after motoring home from the back to beat the top selection, but meets him 3kg worse at the weights. Plenty of value around 4. Tarabeau who can improve sharply second-up after a fresh failure. Both 5. Another Balconyboy off a six week freshen-up; and 7. Climate Control resuming behind a dominant trail win in heavy ground; can run into the money.

How to play it: Where's The Fire to win

Race 9 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):

Same trip and grade to close the card, and it shapes best at good odds for underrated mare 10. Cool Fizz fourth-up. Has found one better in her last couple when both leading or coming from midfield, but she hits a fitness peak now staying in conditions she prefers.

Dangers: Another one knocking on the door fourth-up, 3. Toomuchinformation is a serious threat drawn to get cover, and has a solid record on rain-affected ground. Naturally 1. October Revolution has more than enough ability to win this, dropping sharply in grade, but must be under the odds from the inside draw late in the day under a whopping 67kg. Included in trifecta and first four plays, 4. Speedy Target coming off a barrier-to-box CL1 win; 7. Snowdrop who hasn't missed a place in her last five and loves wet ground; and 12. Bad Boy Darby who is hard fit fifth-up.

How to play it: Cool Fizz each way

BEST BETS:
R3 2. EXOREALM
R7 5. OAKFIELD BADGER

BEST VALUE:
R8 1. WHERE'S THE FIRE

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Taree meeting

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