By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Friday’s Newcastle Cup. Selections based on a good to soft track.
|Race 1 – 1:00PM MACCA’S SAND & SOIL HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
1. Mocambo was unsuited when he resumed in a much stronger race at Randwick won by Yao Dash, getting back on a day where you needed to be handy. He held his ground okay and coming back in class and up in tip are pluses. Has a big finish on him when he can use it so look for a big improvement.
Dangers: 2. Colada was taken to the front at Canterbury and never looked like being beaten to post his first win. You’d expect similar tactics here, to go forward at very least, and he has to be respected now he’s shown what he can do. 3. Sirmaze was a big drifter in betting at Hawkesbury but sailed down the outside for an easy maiden win. Lightly raced and on the up and no shock to see him run into the money. 5. Fast Melody was a well supported favourite in the race won by Sirmaze but was very disappointing after leading on the turn. Blinkers come off and drawn a soft gate so improvement wouldn’t surprise here.
How to play it: Mocambo E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Mocambo wins at Warwick Farm in May
|Race 2 - 1:35PM GREENWAY TURF SOLUTIONS PLATE (1200 METRES)|
2. Elgin raced very well without winning last time in, his first prep for Kris Lees, and there’s been plenty to like about his two trials heading into this campaign. Drawn out a bit but is versatile and can go forward if needed. If there’s support for him he should go very close.
Dangers: 1. Canyonero is still a maiden after 12 starts and I don’t think anyone expected that after what he showed early on. Ran on well first-up at Gosford and Newcastle will suit him a lot better. No excuses here from the inside, he is good enough to win if he puts it together. 3. Amiens was a beaten favourite on the synthetic at Canberra on debut and has been freshened up since then. He looked the goods winning a Canterbury trial earlier this month and has strong claims here. 9. Trapassi might not have loved the wet track at Hawkesbury at his debut and he’s a likely improver on a firmer track from an inside gate. Showed enough in his trials prior to warrant another look.
How to play it: Elgin E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Elgin runs second in a Gosford trial on September 2
|Race 3 – 2.10PM NBN NEWS PLATE (1200 METRES)|
5. All Star Rocket had nothing go her way on debut at Hawkesbury as favourite. Drew wide there and was stuck off the track all the way so forgiving that and expecting to see a bit more intent to be handy. If that’s the case she trialled well enough leading into that first start to suggest she can be competitive.
Dangers: 9. Mirra Vision might hold the key here after two impressive enough trials wins and barrier one for the Snowdens. The only query is she has beaten the same horse in both trials but if the support remains there for her then she could be the one. 7. Bright Rubick has been given no favours with the outside gate but will find this a lot easier than her first-up assignment against Libertini. This is the easiest race she’s contested so with a bit of luck she’s a big threat. 2. Joy And Mirth hasn’t done a lot wrong with placings in all three starts, the latest was a strong form race behind Snips and Eleven Eleven. Trialling okay and drawn to get every chance. Each-way.
How to play it: All Star Rocket E/W ($16 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
All Star Rocket’s trial at Randwick on August 12 prior to her debut
|Race 4 – 2.50PM RARITY WHOLESALE HANDICAP (2300 METRES)|
It looks too good to be true on paper but 3. Dambulla should get complete control in front here and take plenty of running down. He is up in grade from his gritty Class 1 win at Canberra last time where he looked gone at the 200m but was drawing clear on the line. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 6. Toulouse has found his form with city placings at two of his last three starts and was game at Kensington last time where the winner took off midrace and put most of them off the bit. Chance to fire here. 4. Equipped coms through the same Kensington race as Toulouse and he was okay finishing midfield. Four runs back from a spell and now he’s unbeaten at this track. Each-way claims. 2. Executive Chairman also contested the race won by Terwilliker where he had some support at odds and was thereabouts. Has claims.
How to play it: Dambulla E/W ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Dambulla comes off the canvas to win at Canberra on September 6
|Race 5 – 3.25PM AUSTRALIAN BLOODSTOCK CAMERON HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
6. Wren’s Day should be a big improver on his Australian debut sixth on the Kensington track a month ago. He was a heavily backed favourite there and didn’t ever get into the race after drawing wide and staying out there. Back to the trials since and blinkers on, he should be handier and harder to beat.
Dangers: 1. Mantastic looks good each-way odds after a midfield finish in the Tramway first-up. He was back and wide and that wasn’t a formula for success on the day so his run was a bit better than it looks. Go well. 14. Rock is probably a little under the odds given the class rise on his two midweek wins this time in but they have be impressive and he looks a horse on the way up. Expect he will run well and has to be thrown in the multiples. 5. Con Te Partiro attacked the line pretty well in the Show County first-up beaten less than a length and while she missed a run since then should be competitive up in distance.
How to play it: Wren’s Day WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Wren’s Day runs second in a Canterbury trial on September 2
|Race 6 – 4.05PM HUNGERFORD HILL WINES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
4. Texas Storm has a good each-way chance here particularly if there’s a bit of speed on early as it appears there could be. His effort to run fourth at Wyong over 1100m first-up was excellent, the ran the fastest last 200m of 11.74 (Punter's Intelligence), and he’ll appreciate Newcastle and 1200m a lot more. One of those horses that needs the breaks in his races but right in this.
Dangers: 2. Hit The Target seemed to have his chance first-up behind Lady Demi in a Highway at Randwick but he will be better for it and can improve. Last time in he won easily here and was placed in a Country Championships qualifier so he has the ability. 16. Head Spins looks a promising type and while out of his grade is worth keeping safe. Well supported to win on debut and he did it easily in country grade. Wouldn’t surprise to see him measure up. 9. Pandano raced on the speed and was just outpointed by Versetto here a couple of weeks ago when heavily backed. Wide gate a minus but probably goes forward and is one of the chances.
How to play it: Texas Storm E/W ($12 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Texas Storm runs fourth at Wyong on September 6
|Race 7 - 4:40PM SHARP ELECTRONICS GROUP NEWCASTLE GOLD CUP (2300 METRES)|
We’ll find out how good 16. Our Candidate is here and if it’s what he’s looked in his couple of city wins on end then he’ll be winning the Cup. He’s been afforded dream inside passages at both Rosehill and Randwick over 2400m but he’s smashed them by the same token. Drawn to get every chance and clearly the horse to beat.
Dangers: 4. Sweet Thomas is a good chance at odds, there was some merit in his Australian debut in the Premier’s Cup on a heavy track where he kept at it. Liked his trial since and has James McDonald to ride on a better surface. Sharp improver. 8. Hush Writer will be right up in or near the lead and he fought on very well in the Wyong Cup beaten only by Wu Gok. Sure to give another good sight here. 1. Red Cardinal is worth keeping safe first-up even though his two wins last time in were on wet tracks. One of those was first-up and he’s trialled well enough to suggest he can run a race fresh.
How to play it: Our Candidate WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Our Candidate wins at Randwick on August 24
|Race 8 - 5:20PM YARRAMAN PARK TIBBIE STAKES (1400 METRES)|
9. Notation can’t miss each-way you’d think from a perfect gate after her brave fourth in the Mona Lisa. She raced wide on the speed there and those that went with her finished out the back while she was beaten a length. Tough mare who will like the big track and should be in the finish. Read trainer Matthew Dale's comments here.
Dangers: 2. Pohutukawa will be the one they have to hold out, she has a big finish on her and while she’s a supreme wet tracker she’s proven she can go pretty well on top of the ground too as her narrow G1 second before a spell illustrates. She’ll be giving a head start but charging at them. 5. Sweet Deal tried to lead all the way at Randwick two weeks ago and was just cut down late over the 1500m. Very consistent on pacer who should be in this for a long way as usual. 4. Foxy Housewife is unbeaten for Joe Pride and she has to be included after swooping on them to win the Mona Lisa at Wyong.
How to play it: Notation E/W ($9.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Notation runs fourth in the Mona Lisa at Wyong on September 6