By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and rail out 2m from 1000m to 400m and True the remainder, so on-pace early before trending wider
|Race 1 CLASS 1 HCP (2300m):|
We start with a competitive staying test. Promising Godolphin filly 4. Maia Nebula comes back a long way in grade after chasing home top filly & Saturday's dominant Group 1 Oaks winner Colette in a BM 64 at Kembla, and then again way outclassed behind her at Group 3 level. Had previously charged home to bolt in her maiden at Hawkesbury, and she's the one to beat.
Dangers: Improving Randwick gelding 2. Echo Lad has been steady over the mile in last two, but looking for extra ground fourth-up, and draws to get a handy trail.
How to play it: Maia Nebula to win. Odds and Evens (First 2): Split
Maia Nebula runs third at Kembla on March 21
|Race 2 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1300m):|
That incredible run of six straight seconds - four of them this prep, should be broken here for 4YO Newcastle mare 2. Dreaming Of Gold from the Nathan Doyle stable who looks a good thing. Has powered home from off the speed to miss by a whisker in her last three, and drops in a weight for a race with less depth.
Dangers: Another 4YO mare, Wyong-based 7. Princess Ariana looks the only possible threat from the inside gate after holding her ground behind smart Emanate. Completing the 4YO mare trifecta, expect sharp improvement second-up from 6. Natanya who dropped out resuming in a strong maiden at Warwick Farm.
How to play it: Quinella 2 and 7; & trifecta 2/7/6. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 3 PROV & CTRY MAIDEN PLATE (900m):|
Back to a good quality dash over the scamper trip for a group of smart trial performers all resuming. Keen on Newcastle 3YO 4. From The Hip from the Phillip Atkins stable first-up off two trial wins. Drawn wide, but gets a crucial 2kg claim, and trainer has been very deliberate finding the right return race.
Dangers: Another impressive trial winner resuming, 3YO Hawkesbury filly 10. Jokes draws to get a soft run off the speed, and trainer has removed blinkers. Newcastle 3YO 7. Stooge has been gelded, and draws to be a threat off a freshen-up and dominant soft track trial win, but is yet to run a place from three fresh runs so far; while another Newcastle filly 12. Vinrose is best of the rest resuming off two quiet trials.
How to play it: From The Hip to win; quinella 4 and 10; and trifecta 4,10/4,7,10,12/4,7,10,12. Odds and Evens: Evens
|Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1500m):|
Still with the maidens, but over a middle distance, and like progressive 3YO Hawkesbury gelding 3. Liam's The Boss from the Brad Widdup yard coming back in grade and trip after outclassed in the Group 2 Alister Clark at The Valley. Previously has swept home this track and trip to miss by a long neck, and strong rider gets back on.
Dangers: Watch the betting on 3YO Randwick debutant 1. Reinvest (Redoute's Choice x Invest by Dehere) who has had two recent trials, and draws the inside; while Wyong mare 10. Oakfield Tickets looks better suited here fourth-up and down in weight.
How to play it: Liam's The Boss to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Liam's The Boss runs second at Newcastle on February 29
|Race 5 CLASS 2 HCP (1600m):|
Loved the first-up run here of 4YO staying mare 2. La Grisa from the John O'Shea stable at Randwick who made up plenty of ground from a mile back in a good quality BM 70. Will drift back again from a wide barrier, but will be storming home over this longer trip.
Dangers: Early short-priced favourite 1. Pride Of Adelaide is the obvious threat coming back from the much tougher Group 2 Tulloch Stakes. Previous front-running form up to the mile as a raging fancy had been dominant. Will come across from a wide draw and try to dictate, but has to beat a good horse carrying 59kg. Be surprised if anything else wins, but include in exotics Warwick Farm 3YO 3. Trust The Process who was scratched from Warwick Farm on Monday, drops a long way in class from the Group 2 Phar Lap, and form over the mile in spring was good; while improving 3YO filly 9. Fill Of Fun can be competitive off a nice maiden win second-up at Gosford.
How to play it: La Grisa to win and quinella 1 and 2. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 6 CLASS 2 HCP (1200m):|
Same grade, but back in distance, and it's a more open affair. Smart 3YO gelding 1. Mo's Crown from the Jason Coyle yard at Warwick Farm looks very hard to beat from the draw over this journey, and dropping significantly in grade. Improved to be beaten only 1.4 lengths in Listed company at Rosehill third-up, and is in okay at the weights under 59kg considering his superior black-type form.
Dangers: Improving Wyong 4YO 4. Aytobe is ready for this class after bolting in his maiden at Wyong second-up, and drops in weight for this tougher test. Warwick Farm mare 7. Joy And Mirth has plenty of ability, and can peak second-up despite a wide draw. Finished hard from well back first-up in heavy ground at Wyong, and even better suited on firmer footing.
How to play it: Mo's Crown. Odds and Evens: Split
|Race 7 BM 64 HCP (1400m):|
We save the most open race for last, and there are plenty of chances headed by progressive 3YO 7. Navy Cross from the Waterhouse-Bott stable at Randwick who resumes off two trials, and comes to hand quickly. Chased home a smart one first-up over this trip last spring before scoring back-to-back dominant wins up to this grade. Draws to get a handy trail a few lengths off the speed.
Dangers: Watch the market on Rosehill and former Victorian-based 3. Anubis who resumes for the Chris Waller stable as a gelding. Weighted to his best, but hit the line hard first-up last time in a good quality metro BM 70, and has trialled impressively. Stablemate 3YO 5. Moreno also returns off a more modest trial, and drawn right off the track, but won his maiden in spring beating Zakat who is in terrific form at the moment. Newcastle 4YO 9. Opinions is having a good prep charging home to easily win a CL2 here two runs back before again finishing hard to just miss in tougher company at Wyong. Will need luck to get in from a wide draw, but capable of running a cracking final 400m. Both 6YO Wyong mare 11. City Of Love second-up and Warwick Farm 4YO 12. Big Bad Bruce third-up are capable of driving into the finish.
How to play it: Navy Cross to win. Odds and Evens: Odds.