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Neil Evans' Tips For Kembla Grange (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 5 and rail out 5m so reasonably on or near the speed early before trending wider and deeper

Race 1 2YO MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

The babies get us underway in a tricky and open dash, with nearly all either on debut or resuming. Promising debutant filly 5. Alura (I Am Invincible x Dwindle by Commands) from the John O'Shea stable at Randwick has won both trials comfortably, showing terrific acceleration in her latest after sitting at the back, zooming up the inside in a final 600m of 33.70 secs. Looks a real chaser, and should love the long stretch here.

Dangers: Warwick Farm colt 1. Anders is ready to return with blinkers coming off for leading stable off a smart trial win. Was competitive in tougher company through first prep, and only needs to get in from a wider draw. Godolphin colt 3. Chilliwack has trialled quietly, and draws a low gate. Tackled higher grade 2YO metro company in two runs late last year. Liked the chasing effort of well-bred 12. Zanzidance on debut at Wyong behind a smart one, although likely be forced a long way back from a wide draw. Watch the betting on Waterhouse-Bott filly and first starter 9. Loose Buttons (Zoustar x Sunday Rose by Exceed And Excel) who has been consistently trialling well for some time, and debuts in blinkers; while include debutant Warwick Farm gelding 2. Ballistic Moon (Exosphere x Congenial x Redoute's Choice) in wider exotics after five trials in 19 weeks.

How to play it: Alura each way and first four 1,3,5/1,2,3,5,9,12/1,2,3,5,9,12/1,2,3,5,9,12. Odds and Evens (First 2): Odds

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1400m):

Progressive 3YO Warwick Farm filly 4. Stolen Jade from the Clarry Conners stable has had two solid placings this prep, although a long way from the winner in the heavy at home. Firmer ground will help, and draws to get the ideal trail right behind the speed.

Dangers: Warwick Farm filly 5. So Charming was unwanted on debut at Newcastle, but kept finding the line. Extra trip looks no concern, but up in weight and drawn further out; while include 4YO mare 9. Natanya who has had three improving runs back from a spell.

How to play it: Stolen Jade to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):

Still with the maidens, and going with the Chris Waller-trained 3YO gelding 3. Krameric having his first run in five months as a gelding off a quiet trial. Spent nearly a year off the scene before that after showing plenty of promise as a 2YO in the spring of 2018.

Dangers: Godolphin filly 7. Duenna has shown enough in two runs back to be competitive again.

How to play it: Krameric to win. Odds and Evens: Odds.

Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):

Wide open and good quality tactical battle. Promising 3YO Wyong filly 11. Sarah Elizabeth resumes nearly six months after an impressive debut win at Hawkesbury reeling off her last 600m in 33.44 secs. Has trialled strongly over 1000m, and stable will have her ready.

Dangers: Ultra consistent local gelding 1. Pioneer has fought hard going down narrowly in his last couple, and only time out of a place in six runs this prep was in the much strong Provincial C'ship Qualifier three runs back. Will be tough to run down again if he can dictate in front. Godolphin 3YO 4. Criaderas will need to find some cover from a wide gate, but his debut win at Newcastle was a beauty sweeping home from well off the speed carrying the same weight. Big watch on improving 3YO 9. Bigger Than Thorn, stablemate to top selection, who finished hard in a CL1 here second-up, and the blinkers go on.

How to play it: Sarah Elizabeth to win and trifecta 1,11/1,4,9,11/1,4,9,11. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 BM 64 HCP (2000m):

Now the stayers' turn, and very keen on talented 4YO gelding 2. Succendam from the Kim Waugh yard at Wyong getting to this journey fourth-up. Has kept finding the line under big weights this prep, and didn't get the easiest of runs in a metro BM 74 last start. Will find this easier, and should relish the long straight here.

Dangers: Rosehill filly 6. Buba was a CL1 winner on the Beaumont track three runs ago before only fair in his last couple against deeper opposition. Prefers rain-affected ground. Warwick Farm 4YO 5. Temperate has had four mixed runs this prep, but looking for this longer trip.

How to play it: Succendam to win. Odds and Evens: Split


Succendam's last start at Kensington on April 15

Race 6 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

Back to the maidens over a mile, and there's a stack of chances, with most still early in their prep. Warwick Farm filly 12. Air To Air did her best work late at only second start, and should relish the step up to the mile.

Dangers: Hawkesbury 3YO 8. Stiller was flat third-up at Newcastle after two encouraging runs to start the prep, and drop back to this trip should suit. Randwick 3YO 9. Sun Moon Sky can improve up in trip off a tidy debut effort getting home late at Wyong. Big watch on 4YO imported gelding 1. Alakahan having his first run Down Under and off a lengthy spell. By Montjeu stallion Motivator in the UK, and has had two handy recent trials at Rosehill over 1030m.

How to play it: Air To Air to win and trifecta 8,12/1,8,9,12/1,8,9,12. Odds and Evens: Split.

Race 7 BM 70 HCP (1600m):

We save the best for last over the mile where tempo and pattern will be pivotal. Talented 3YO Wyong filly 5. Trajection from the Waugh stable charged home for a dominant BM 70 win at Newcastle two runs back before didn't get a lot of luck in a similar race on tighter home track. Much prefer back on the bigger track, and draws to get a nice trail just off the speed.

Dangers: Expect sharp improvement second-up from Randwick 3YO 7. Navy Cross who stuck on okay resuming in a strong BM 64 at Newcastle, and both wins so far have come at the mile. Warwick Farm-based filly 3. Ocean Heart has been sparingly raced, campaigning solidly mainly in Victoria. Led all the way this grade at Sandown four runs back, and wasn't beaten far in the Listed Tasmanian Oaks. Draws to take up her favourite role in front.

How to play it: Trajection to win and quinella 5 and 7. Odds and Evens: Odds.


Trajection's last start at Wyong on April 9

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Kembla Grange meeting

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