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Neil Evans' Tips For Kembla Grange (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track likely Soft 7 and rail out 2m from 1100m to WP so fairly even before trending away from the fence

Race 1 2YO MAIDEN PLATE (1000m):

The babies get first use of an improving track, and there are plenty of chances. Smart Godolphin filly 10. In Flanders is primed to break through off a freshen-up after game effort in Group 3 company behind Magic Millions winner and subsequent Golden Slipper place-getter. Kept ticking over with a sharp trial win at Hawkesbury when coasting home under a good hold.

Dangers: Watch the betting on Randwick colt 4. Write On (Written Tycoon x Off The Planet by Fusaichi Pegasus) who showed impressive acceleration to win a trial at Hawkesbury after sitting well away from the fence, and debuts for strong juvenile stable with the blinkers on. Well over the odds. Expect Warwick Farm colt 1. Already Blessed to be stronger this time in after over-run on debut late last year in much stronger company, and has trialled well in soft ground. Another first starter, Warwick filly 11. Macroura (Snitzel x Zenaida by Zabeel) has also trialled well for leading stable, but has a tough draw to overcome.

How to play it: In Flanders to win and Write On each way. Odds and Evens (First 2): Evens

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):

Still with the maidens over longer journey, and high class colt 2. Battleground from the Snowden stable at Randwick can go one better here despite an awkward draw, although comes in a crucial few spots after final scratchings. Was run down late resuming at Warwick Farm, but trainer has replaced blinkers with winkers, and if he runs anywhere near his big closing effort at second start in the Listed Gosford Guineas, should have them covered.

Dangers: Warwick Farm gelding 3. Blueant has plenty of ability, and hit the line hard on debut at the Kensington track after a string of winning trial runs. Extra ground ideal, just needs to find some cover from a wide barrier. Watch the betting on Waterhouse-Bott debutant 3YO 6. The First Ring (Olympic Glory x Ballet Blue by Stravinsky) who won a recent trial at Gosford; while Hawkesbury gelding 7. Uprise is the best of the long-shots.

How to play it: Battleground to win. Odds and Evens: Split.

Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):

Even and tricky race. Got a lot of time for US-bred 4YO gelding 5. Tapiconic who resumes off a near six month break for leading Maher-Eustace stable at Warwick Farm. Was wayward across three runs in first prep last autumn before a one-off maiden win in spring as a hot favourite at Cessnock when he exploded home from midfield. Has been given two trials, and with more maturity on his side, will love the long stretch here.

Dangers: Local 5YO gelding 3. Pioneer felt the extra pressure leading the Provincial C'ship qualifying field this track, and wilted early in the straight, but scored a dominant front-running maiden win here two runs back. Obvious drop in grade and trip augurs well. Progressive Warwick Farm 3YO 2. Jacquine Reward led all the way two back beating Pioneer to win his maiden before run down in the last few strides by a smart one in a BM 64. Treated okay at the top of the weights with only a 4kg spread to the bottom, and only needs to get over from a wide draw to be in the finish. Include Godolphin 3YO 7. Shaibanat in exotics resuming off a useful trial.

How to play it: Tapiconic each way and box trifecta 2,3,5,7. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 4 CLASS 2 HCP (1600m):

Up to the mile where emerging 3YO colt 1. Creator from the Snowden yard at Randwick looks very hard to beat second-up. Did his best work late resuming in a metro BM 70 behind Two Big Fari who then won the Country C'ship Wildcard before beaten only half length in last Sat's Country Final at Randwick. Took on Group company in spring after being beaten only a long head by Group 1 winner Shadow Hero at Doomben last winter.

Dangers: Talented Hawkesbury 4YO 3. Karmazone has taken big strides this prep, charging home late in consecutive Provincial C'ship Qualifiers. Will again drift back, but less depth here. Decent gap to the rest headed by Godolphin 3YO 4. Camp Rifle who has progressed okay in three runs this prep.

How to play it: Creator to win and quinella 1 and 3. Odds and Evens: Odds

Creator runs sixth at Warwick Farm on March 11

Race 5 BM 64 HCP (2000m):

Good race over the longer trip, with plenty of chances. It's been a while since lightly raced and promising 5YO Japanese-sired mare 5. Wild Impact from the John Thompson yard at Randwick won her maiden, but she looks ready third-up on the big track. Finished hard late just behind the place-getters this grade at Hawkesbury, and hits peak fitness now.

Dangers: Progressive 3YO Rosehill filly 3. Buba stalked the speed and won accordingly on the Beaumont track before always well back in much stronger Group 3 Classic this track. Back to right class and bred to get the distance, but has to overcome a wide gate. Randwick 5YO 1. Think Straight was disappointing this grade at Newcastle after charging through the line at Wyong in similar company resuming off a long break. Looking for further, but sharp 600m rise in distance is a tough task. Similarly, improving Warwick Farm 5YO 4. Colesberg finished strong to score a long overdue and deserved BM 58 win at Muswellbrook, but this is harder and also has an awkward draw.

How to play it: Wild Impact to win. Odds and Evens: Odds

Wild Impact runs fifth at Hawkesbury on March 17

Race 6 MAIDEN HCP (1400m):

Back we come in trip for the maidens, and looms as the most open race on the card. Hard fit and improving 3YO filly 11. Benoni from the Clarry Conners yard at Warwick Farm can finally break through fifth-up, and at 10th career start. Came from a long way back at Goulburn two starts ago before again finishing hard in a deeper maiden at Canterbury. Suited on the long stretch here, and will be charging home.

Dangers: Resuming Randwick 4YO 2. Costa Zou will be fit and ready for this journey fresh having trialled well up to 1250m, and his best form is around the mile. Watch the market on stablemate 3YO 3. Lando Bay who resumes as a gelding with the blinkers off, and has had two trials up to 1200m; while didn't mind the second-up run of Godolphin filly 10. History who will also enjoy the longer trip, but will need to slot in somewhere from a wide barrier.

How to play it: Benoni each way and box trifecta 2,3,10,11. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1400m):

Tough challenge to finish. Warwick Farm 4YO mare 7. Menagerie was very good winning her maiden second-up from the front at Newcastle after not having much luck in the previous, and the winner there has since won again at BM 64 level.

Dangers: Progressive 3YO Godolphin gelding 1. Montserrat will be hard to hold out third-up from the inside draw after charging home to miss by a neck in a handy CL2 at Newcastle. Rising Randwick filly 8. Alchermes looks well capable of taking the next step after a dominant maiden win at Gosford at only second career start.

How to play it: Menagerie each way and quinella 1 and 7. Odds and Evens: Split

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Kembla Grange meeting

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