By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Thursday’s Kembla Grange meeting. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 12:30PM CORDEAUX HEIGHTS PLATE (1500 METRES)|
1. Agosto will either be too classy for his four rivals or will be outsprinted at the trip short of his best. He’s only had the two starts in France over staying trips but he trialled quite well last week at 1030m albeit punched along. Bowman going to Kembla to ride could be a pointer.
Dangers: 3. Deelbraka made it five second placings from eight starts when safely held here two weeks ago. Did have to check across heels but I reckon he had his chance. Costly to follow but if Agosto isn’t quite sharp enough this is his race to lose. 5. Disco Mo had every chance as a short priced favourite at his past two starts. Maybe a firmer track will help him but unless he gets a soft lead he’s playing for minor money. 6. Street Rogue could well take it up as he did at Wyong last time but he’s a 10 start maiden now with only one placing so he’s hard to get too keen on.
How to play it: Agosto WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Agosto runs second in a trial at Rosehill on July 19
|Race 2 - 1:05PM MOUNT KEIRA HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Two horse race for mine. 2. Emergent disappointed first-up but found his form at Warwick Farm last time with a determined second on a heavy track. No worries 1400m on a good track and he’s entitled to go close.
Dangers: 3. Proud Tradition gave away a huge start fresh at Newcastle and found the line stylishly into third. That was 1300m but may be able to settle a little closer from a soft gate here. If that’s the case he’s a decent threat to the favourite. 10. Girl You Want raced wide when resuming at this track at 1000m and stuck on pretty well under the circumstances. Fitter and up to a more suitable trip could see sharp improvement. 6. Design Ahead has put three thirds together and while he had his chance last start he’s a local and should run well again.
How to play it: Emergent WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Emergent runs second at Warwick Farm on July 10
|Race 3 – 1.40PM MOUNT KEMBLA HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
6. Eleven Eleven had a perfect run and broke well clear for an easy maiden win here two weeks ago. He’s against older horses and drawn awkwardly but should still be able to race in the first half and if he produces the same effort as last time can repeat. Read trainer Greg Hickman's comments here.
Dangers: 2. Aloneinabaa pulled off a magic trip to get up on the line and score at $1.35 at Newcastle over 900m after getting a lot further back than expected. Better for that run and drawn well again so commands some respect. 9. Starry will appreciate getting back onto a good track after a couple of even efforts on soft ground of late. Placed both runs at this track and has each-way claims. 1. Evict sat handy and stuck on well second-up at Goulburn on a soft track and drops 4kg here with the claim. If the 1000m isn’t too sharp for him he can be in the finish.
How to play it: Eleven Eleven WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Eleven Eleven wins at Kembla Grange on July 11
|Race 4 – 2.20PM FIGTREE PLATE (1000 METRES)|
14. You Rang has been trialling outstandingly in the lead up to her debut and imagine she will go forward from the wide gate. Had she drawn well she’d likely be favourite given her pedigree and trials. Any luck and she goes close.
Dangers: 1. Covert Ops blew the start and that was the end of him at Hawkesbury when beaten favourite there three weeks ago. City form is good enough to see him home and he will have every chance assuming he jumps with them. 4. Leo settled well back and attacked the line nicely on debut at 900m at Newcastle. Probably goes back again from the wide gate but expect he will be finishing on again here. 10. Press Week comes back 100m on a handy enough resumption at Gosford. Can see her getting a nice sit from barrier one and a good track looks a plus. Can improve.
How to play it: You Rang WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
You Rang wins a trial at Randwick on July 12
|Race 5 – 2.55PM FARMBOROUGH HEIGHTS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
6. Subedar is a big watch on debut with two quiet trials under his belt this time in. Bred to be very good by a Slipper winner out of a fast G1 winning mare and drawn the rails. Any support would be encouraging but expect him to run well.
Dangers: 1. Caesura had every chance in front at Hawkesbury last start and was run down. She’s been costly with her three placings this time in and will again be well found in the market. Can win but running out of chances. 5. Uprise hit the line well on debut over the short trip then closer to the speed at Hawkesbury and went down narrowly. At peak now and he’s one of the major players. 7. War Deck resumed in the same race as Caesura at Hawkesbury and held his found then ran on without threatening at Gosford. Soft draw, good track and another 100m all help so he has the chance to improve.
How to play it: Subedar E/W ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Subedar’s latest trial at Randwick on July 12
|Race 6 – 3.35PM MOUNT SAINT THOMAS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
3. Holy Reign raced wide throughout when resuming at Newcastle and did a great job to run second there. Fitter and while he’ll again need a bit of luck he won second-up over this course last prep and could very well repeat it.
Dangers: 1. Toroso is a big watch a probably over the odds for his first-up run. Given a quiet trial as he was last prep where he resumed with a nice second to Fuchu and was then placed in town. Keep very safe. 4. Quick Finance rarely runs a bad race though is creeping down in distance on recent starts. Led and boxed on well at Warwick Farm last time, this is easier and he shouldn’t be too far away as usual. 8. Kentucky Wildcat did quite a big job to win on debut at Newcastle, skips a grade here but shapes as though 1300m will suit and is well worth including.
How to play it: Holy Reign WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Holy Reign runs second at Newcastle on July 9
|Race 7 - 4:10PM CONISTON HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
8. Chosen Prince looks over the odds, he’s been racing well in solid form races and getting out to 2000m is right up his alley. Won’t be too far away from barrier one and while he needs everything to go his way to win he is a great each-way chance.
Dangers: 6. Ritmico appreciated getting back onto a firmer track as he hit the line strongly at Newcastle after a heavy track flop. Won well on good ground three back and expect him to be competitive again. 3. Castel Sant’angelo had been threatening to win one leading up to finally getting the maiden out of the way at Hawkesbury. Beaten favourite over this course two starts back on a heavy track but sets up better for him here. Can give a sight. 1. Decroux will find this a lot easier than last time out at Randwick on a heavy track. Up 9.5kg for the big class drop and up to 2000m but drawn well and can’t be left out.
How to play it: Chosen Prince E/W ($15 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Chosen Prince runs third at Scone over a mile on July 12
|Race 8 - 4:45PM CRINGILA HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
8. Carambola was a beaten favourite here two weeks ago but it was a huge performance getting back in a slowly run race and only failing narrowly. Ran 35.45 for her last 600m, some two and a half lengths faster than any other in the race, last start (Punter's Intelligence). Fourth-up and looks well placed to break through.
Dangers: 9. Neshmiya has battled on soft tracks at her last couple but her form on good ground prior was strong around Pop Girl. She has her chance to be in the finish. 10. Betty Blooms fought hard to win on a heavy track here last month and she’ll be just as effective on top of the ground. Goes forward and will give herself a fighting chance. 3. Miss Jenny was probably out of her depth at Warwick Farm last start but races well at her home track and is entitled to another chance.
How to play it: Carambola WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Carambola runs second at Kembla Grange on July 11