By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a soft to heavy track.
|Race 1 – 12:35PM TAB VENUE MODE PLATE (1200 METRES)|
7. Elizabeel has looked the goods in her recent trials and if she brings that to the races she’ll take beating. Too slick for race fit Stellar Pauline in her latest, drawn well enough and holds the key to this race.
Dangers: 9. Shivani is a nicely bred filly who trialled back in December then resurfaced in mid-March where she found the line from the back without any pressure. In good hands and best to keep her on side. 1. Codebreaker led them up on debut and was no match for Damaged on a good track here two weeks ago but stayed on for second. Likely to be okay in the wet and he should be forward again. No surprise to see him take some running down. 2. Formentera contested the same race as Codebreaker and was only half a length behind him in third. Trialled okay in soft ground and open to improvement. Each-way.
How to play it: Elizabeel WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Elizabeel wins a trial at Kensington on March 31
|Race 2 – 1.10PM DARLEY STALLIONS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
2. Flinders arguably should have gone close first-up at 1300m two weeks ago, he was held up then ran onto heels when charging at them late. He ran 11.72 (Punter's Intelligence) for his last 200m there. Fitter for that, mile suits and he’s shown he is okay in the wet. Only has to run up to that fresh effort to go close.
Dangers: 4. Significance went way too hard in front at Kensington last time and not surprisingly weakened right out of it. Forgive that, first-up run was sound. He’ll go forward again and if he can set a controlled gallop he can be hard to run down. 3. Lanu Moana has the blinkers on after she ran on without threatening at Hawkesbury at her third up for another placing. The first two home from that race have since run well in much better company. Drop in distance not ideal but she has to be in the mix. 1. Activation hit the line well in the same race as Flinders but did have a clear passage home. Expect he will settle back again and be running on and his chances probably dictated by the tempo.
How to play it: Flinders WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Flinders runs third at Warwick Farm on March 25
|Race 3 – 1:45PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
10. Instant Attraction was a beaten favourite first-up at Newcastle with some excuses though hard to argue she would have won. We know she’s got talent, she has a win over Electric Girl three runs back, and the blinkers go on. No wet track exposure either, but there’s nothing to say she won’t handle it. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 2. Disruptor could potentially be the best horse in the race but the negative is he’s first-up on a wet track, which he does handle, after 10 months off. He trialled well and if he is solid in the market then he might just win. Query is he might be in need of it so playing him conservatively but expecting him to run well all the same. Read trainer Gary Portelli's comments here. 9. Lancer has been runner-up in lesser races in two runs back from a spell but he attacked the line last time at Newcastle with plenty of purpose to just fail. If they are running on he could surprise. 12. Special Snap has trialled well twice on synthetic tracks and her only win to date was on a soft 6 at this track. On her best efforts she's in the mix.
How to play it: Instant Attraction WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Instant Attraction's first-up run at Newcastle on March 19
|Race 4 – 2:20PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
7. Nordicus only has to run up to his super first-up effort, when just failing to nab Indy Car, at Kensington to be a big chance. He ran the fastest last 200m of 11.64 fresh (Punter's Intelligence). Looks to get a genuine tempo here and if they can run on he’ll be hitting the line strongly.
Dangers: 2. Witherspoon only knows one way and that’s to put the foot down and while that always leaves her vulnerable she often fights on. It took Grand Piano to run her down over 1100m last time, will give a sight if she finds the lead. 5. Burning Crown is another who races best when allowed to stride freely and he has the fence to aid that pattern if he gets away cleanly. Raced consistently last time in before a miss at his latest when an odds-on favourite. Not exposed in heavy ground but have to include. 14. Gimme Shelter is worth some thought at big odds fresh. Last heavy run she chased home Sir Elton at Randwick when that horse was flying. Fitter for a trial win and could show up without shocking.
How to play it: Nordicus E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Nordicus runs second at Kensington on March 18
|Race 5 – 3:00PM RANVET SALKAVITE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
9. My Demetra rarely runs a bad race and she kept up that trend with a nice first-up effort at Kensington a few weeks back. An extra 100m is a plus and she seems to handle most conditions so far. Can be closer to the pace up in trip and sure to run well again.
Dangers: 4. Tricky Gal probably gets back here from a middle gate fresh at 1200m but she is trialling so well coming into this preparation a big finish is expected. Yet to wind up worse than second in her six starts and can’t be overlooked. 1. Sakura hasn’t finished worse than fourth in her nine starts and one of those was a heavy track so it’s not as though she couldn’t handle it. Two trials have been on the synthetic and performed well there. Commands respect. 7. Dunbrody Power is back in class after a respectable effort in Group 3 company second-up and that followed a luckless fresh run. More than capable of showing up here if she gets the race run to suit.
How to play it: My Demetra E/W ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
My Demetra runs second at Kensington on March 18
|Race 6 – 3:40PM ALL TOO HARD @ VINERY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Might be going a run early but 1. Surrey Thunder couldn’t have been missed with his first-up effort at Rosehill at 1400m, which was short of his best, where he surged nicely late and ran the fastest last 200m of 11.99 (Punter's Intelligence). Fitter for that, trip suits and similar opposition here. He’ll run well and no surprise if he wins.
Dangers: 5. Rainbow Thief stepped up in class into the Doncaster Prelude and performed very well on a soft 7 and with two heavy track wins to his name is the logical threat. Only has to run up to that last effort and he will go close. 13. Kaapfever loves Warwick Farm and has had a tickover trial since his strong win over this course a month ago. Handles all conditions and it’s impossible to leave him out at odds. 3. Royal Celebration posted an overdue win when scoring at Rosehill, same race as Surrey Thunder, and given his penchant for the wet and consistent nature it’s hard to ignore him even though others appear better suited to a mile. But who knows, he may relish it.
How to play it: Surrey Thunder E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Surrey Thunder runs fourth at Rosehill on March 28
|Race 7 – 4:20PM YARRAMAN PARK STUD HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
4. Black Magnum ticks plenty of boxes and while he’s been beaten in three starts since a first-up win he has had genuine excuses for each, including very wide runs at his last couple. Loves the wet, drawn well and if he jumps with them should be in the finish.
Dangers: 13. Segalas is another consistent Godolphin mare and she’s suited back to 1100m on the fresh side after being run down by McCormack over 1200m here last time. She handles all conditions and can be expected to run well. 8. Lisdoonvarna is often underestimated but she always runs well fresh and appears to be set up to do that here. Nice trial behind Standout recently and she was placed with 61kg fresh last prep. Good each-way hope. 2. Improvement is well up to this and there was nothing wrong with her recent trial. Stakes placed before a spell and ran well fresh last time in on a soft 7.
How to play it: Black Magnum E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Black Magnum runs second at Muswellbrook on March 27
|Race 8 – 5:00PM TAB HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
4. Mr Wong might be looking for a mile and drawing wide isn’t an issue for a horse like him who likes his space. Should have won here two starts back on a soft 6 then back in trip didn’t suit in the Wild Card. More than capable and a good each-way hope.
Dangers: 1. On The White Turf hasn’t raced for a month now after last week’s washout and she stays at a mile. Huge effort to run third over this course four weeks ago and she could easily settle closer from the inside gate. Handles the wet and is a definite chance. 13. Foxborough finally cracked it for a maiden win at Canberra then not disgraced at all in the Canberra Guineas. No issues with the mile and seems to be fine in the wet. Can see her running well. 2. Poulton Le Sands looked very sharp winning first-up at 1400m at Newcastle and that suggests he’s come back in super order. Three wins at a mile and though he hasn’t won second-up he’d never won fresh before last time. Could surprise.
How to play it: Mr Wong E/W ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Mr Wong runs second at Warwick Farm on March 11