Tips by Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Wednesday’s meeting at Warwick Farm. The track is expected to be good and the rail is out +5m 1000m to the winning post and +3m the remainder.
|Race 1 - 12:50PM #THERACES PLATE (1200 METRES)|
Tried to find something to beat Sir Owen conceding that he is very well found as even money favourite but came back to him in the end. He doesn’t look the most naturally brilliant two-year-old off his trials but quite simply, he looks to have the talent to beat these. In two of his three trials he has come up against The Autumn Sun and coincidentally, looks a similar type of horse. He takes winding to click through his gears and will probably come into their own at three. All that said, this half brother to Criterion (and full bro to Comin' Through) is in the right camp with the Snowdens to live up to his pedigree. He is the one you want to be with here and into the future.
Dangers: Looking at another first starter in Irish Songs as the danger simply due to the unknown factor. Only had the one trial and responded well enough to the urgings of Blake Shinn, who sticks here for the Shamus Award colt’s debut. Sunsuzie looks the best of the raced, as the market suggests, having run sixth on debut in a reasonable two-year-old race behind I Like It Easy where Galina was luckless.
How to play it: Sir Owen WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds)
Sir Owen’s latest trial where he was slow away – Randwick May 15
|Race 2 - 1:25PM TAB.COM.AU PLATE (1200 METRES)|
No prizes for finding Seasons at the short odds. She was a good thing beaten first up, which we’re well aware of and sometimes that profile of runner can go around under the odds next time. This filly is deserving of her quote though. Something would have to go wrong again for her to be rolled and tipping Tim Clark won’t be leaving anything to chance this time. Wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see her lead. She has trialled since the well-documented first up run and looked outstanding surging through the field despite Clark sitting as still as a statue. Could be a black type filly in time. Just got to convince TAB to put the $1.90 back up which was the price they offered when markets first came out…
Dangers: Mascot is an honest sort of horse. He has had three trials and been gelded since we last saw him. He’ll be on pace making his own luck so if it deserts Seasons again he looks the most likely. Baanone steps out on debut for Bjorn Baker having trialled well. He’ll get out over a trip, being by Shocking, so expect him to be doing his best work late. He is a half brother to Sir Barb.
How to play it: Seasons WIN ($1.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
The trial of Seasons since her luckless first up effort - Randwick May 15
|Race 3 - 2:00PM CASINO PRINCE@VINERY HANDICAP (2200 METRES)|
Want to forgive the underwhelming second up effort from Solo Mission having been so good on his Aussie debut for Chris Waller. He never really travelled in the run boxing on to finish midfield. Perhaps that was due to stablemate Naval Warfare charging along in front and turning it into a staying contest he simply wasn’t yet ready for, or maybe he was a touch flat after sprinting so brilliantly first up. That’s not an uncommon pattern for stayers. Punters Intel reveals he ran home first up in 11.76s to chase down subsequent Saturday winner Bastia. Solo Mission has a lot less convictions than most of his rivals at this stage.
Dangers: Spooky Wooky isn’t far away from another win. Like the way he found the line at Rosehill last start. He wasn’t the best behaved in the yard prior to the race, burning nervous energy, so keep an eye on him there before investing. Mazaz has found another suitable race and will run well again – just wouldn’t be rushing to take $3.30. Mornington gets the blinkers on for the first time.
How to play it: Solo Mission WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Solo Mission winning on his Australian debut
|Race 4 - 2:35PM TAB HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Sweet Victory hasn’t got many blots on her copybook to date. In her six starts she has won two, run second in two and her two misses come with genuine excuses. One of them was first up over 1200m this preparation and she was luckless having got back in the run while she finished down the track at Flemington in Listed company at the backend of her first racing preparation, with that jump in grade coming too soon for the Smart Missile three-year-old. She made amends for that luckless first up run at Hawkesbury last start where she won with authority despite sitting wide the trip. She must have been a late nomination for the race, otherwise you’d have thought Tim Clark would have maintained his association with her. Either way, Josh Parr can get it done, tucking in behind the leaders from the cosy draw.
Dangers: Verlan finds herself hard in the market having belted her rivals at Newcastle last start. She went around $1.40 having run an eye-catching second first up behind Brabinger who has since won again, while Blazeray, who finished third there, subsequently won at Hawkesbury. She maps to give these a start from the wide draw but there looks to be good speed in the race with Cormac and Kurnel Jackson wanting to hold the fence from inside draws while Surjin is likely to shoot across from wider.
How to play it: Sweet Victory WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds).
Sweet Victory’s brave Hawkesbury win
|Race 5 - 3:10PM RANVET NEUTROLENE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
This is a perfect race for Desert Lord. He is the most lightly-raced galloper in the field which could count against him given his waywardness but happy to back his talent to get him home. He surged clear to win a Wyong maiden two back before the wide draw cost him over the Warwick Farm mile last time out. He was last in the run and rattled home down the middle of the track. He wobbled his way down the straight in a slick 10.90s (400-200m) and 11.12s (last 200m), according to Punters Intel. With the Hawkes polish, expect him to keep progressing through the grades. Another couple of pluses to throw into the mix are the good draw so he can settle midfield and the engagement of Brenton Avdulla. Best bet of the day.
Dangers: Choice Larga being scratched does change the map as now Penske should get his own way in front. That boosts his claims enormously. Nathula who finds himself in town second up after running a luckless fourth at Kembla Grange when heavily supported late. The Godolphin gelding has always possessed city class talent and now a late three-year-old, he might finally start showing it.
How to play it: Desert Lord WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Desert Lord’s last start Warwick Farm effort
|Race 6 - 3:45PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Ready For Love gets the nod in a very tricky race, resuming on her home deck for Joe Pride. The three-year-old Pluck filly hasn’t really put a foot wrong in her four-race career to date with a win and three placings. She always gave the impression she was a work in progress too. In her two trials she finished 7 of 9 and 9 of 10 but she was given a very easy time on both occasions so don’t read into the finishing positions as an indication of how she is going. The last time we saw her she tackled the Warwick Farm 1100m and was beaten by Sheikha and Tarabai. That reads well for a race like this. She’s the play at double figure odds.
Dangers: Soothing has claims as on her day she can be explosive but she has disappointed punters more than she has thrilled them to date. Her Wyong win last campaign was outstanding but her two subsequent runs were disappointing. Has only had one trial as suspect she does her best racing kept fresh. I am not willing to take $3 to find out if that’s the case though, especially drawn out there. Inclined to keep Empress Matilda safe.
How to play it: Ready For Love EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Ready For Love at Warwick Farm over 1100m back in February
|Race 7 - 4:20PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Bombardier looks to be a bit of a project horse for Mark Newnham but like what we’ve seen from him to date. He has won two of his three outings despite not having any idea what he was doing. We haven’t seen him at the track for 10 months which suggests he’s had a setback along the way but reckon the time away might be exactly what this horse needed. He has trialled twice this time in, at Rosehill and then Warwick Farm, and looked good on both occasions. The 1300m is perfect first up and the draw gives Blake Shinn a number of options, which is important for a horse like him. He can ride him where he is comfortable yet still have him in a winning position. Happy to spec him at double figure odds and suspect he might creep out even further closer to jump.
Dangers: Think two roughies are poised to run well here in Dashley Dubh and He’s A Given. Dashley Dub for Michael Tubman resumed with a strong win over Nonpareil at Kembla Grange first up. Amazingly, her last nine starts have been at Kembla! One win from last preparation that stands out is a victory over Moss Trip. He's A Given meanwhile will love the sting out of the track. Inquiry led first up at Hawkesbury and never gave his rivals a look in. It was a strong win but won't be going near him at $2.40.
How to play it: Bombardier WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds).
Bombardier winning the last time we saw him, despite his greenness