By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a heavy track.
|Race 1 – 1:25PM ATC MEMBER TOURS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Sticking with 3. Entente who started favourite on debut two weeks ago and worked home from worse than midfield into third. Stays at 1400m but blinkers go on and no reason to think he won’t handle a wet track at this stage. Should run well.
Dangers: 2. Promotions finished second in the same race as Entente after sitting right on the speed. He had his chance there but has put two good efforts together and at this stage you’d back him to handle the ground on pedigree. Hard to beat. 4. Dancing Gidget had some support at odds and attacked the line quite well at her debut at Newcastle. Dam won five races on soft and was beaten a nose on a heavy 10 one day so that’s a positive sign for her chances in the wet. Each-way. 8. Palurien is another with no exposed wet form and hard to get a line on her from breeding as well. But she comes through a handy race won by Just Thinkin where she didn't have a lot of luck as favourite. If she handles the ground she's right in it.
How to play it: Entente E/W ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Entente runs third at Kensington on September 4
|Race 2 - 2:00PM BRAZEN BEAU @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
4. Grand Piano probably wants more than 1100m but the wet track is a plus on that score, particularly if he handles it. Hit the line very well first-up over this course three weeks ago, fitter and should be competitive.
Dangers: 5. Hulk has had a few chances to break through and coming back to 1100m is a query. Hard to get a line on his wet track hopes given his dam was a bit 50-50 in the ground. But rather include than dismiss. 11. Sky Diamonds should handle the ground on pedigree and there was a heap to like about her soft track trial win at the Farm recently. Could be a good longshot. 9. Giselle Anne had her chance first-up at Newcastle but has run well on a wet track previously so has to be respected.
How to play it: Grand Piano WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Grand Piano runs fourth at Warwick Farm on August 28
|Race 3 – 2.35PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (2200 METRES)|
4. Agosto is the horse with the most upside but hasn’t struck a wet track as yet. He didn’t beat a lot at Newcastle (Cessnock meeting) third-up off an unlucky defeat but he did stretch away late and looks all stayer. The one to beat with the obvious heavy track query.
Dangers: 1. Fairlight has a heavy track win to his name last preparation and he was given a bit of a test out in a 1200m trial on heavy ground recently. Ran well in a stakes race before the break and is right in this. 3. Penshurst was unlucky not to run second two starts back at Canterbury then perhaps a little close in the run when beaten 1.5 lengths at Kensington. Has a heavy track win overseas and the benefit of a couple of recent runs so he has to be considered. 2. Breakdance has a heavy track placing to his name and wasn’t disgraced in the same race as Penshurst last time out running fourth. He’s a one-paced stayer who should be around the mark again and wouldn’t knock if you like him.
How to play it: Agosto WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Agosto wins at Newcastle on September 5
|Race 4 – 3.10PM PLUCK @ VINERY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Moment of truth time for 6. Erno who was outpointed narrowly first-up then not a lot of luck last week at Canterbury. Won on debut on a heavy track and seems to be looking for 1400m or so now. Entitled to go close here and is worth one more chance.
Dangers: 3. Full Recognition was very well ridden in beating Erno first-up and meets him 1kg worse for that. His soft track placing was on a soft 6 at Kensington four lengths behind Classique Legend in February. Wouldn’t put it past him to repeat the dose but Erno is entitled to turn the tables. 1. Esteem Spirit has trialled twice, albeit fairly, ahead of a first-up run and he’s proven himself on a heavy track a couple of times already. Trip suits fresh and if there’s an upset he wouldn’t shock. 9. Maddi Rocks hasn’t seen a wet track and the jury is out on her a little after her fading sixth at Randwick behind Yao Dash after having the winner’s back in the run. She’s shown plenty of ability and if she does get through the going can feature but she’s under the odds.
How to play it: Erno WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Erno runs fifth at Canterbury on September 11
|Race 5 – 3.45PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Best value of the day here in 11. High Low Bet who is a noted wet tracker and she kept boxing on last start behind Subpeonaed on good ground over this trip. Last win was in July on a heavy 8 over this course and no surprise to see her jump out of the ground.
Dangers: 9. Exotic Ruby ran third in the same race at Kensington and on that would be the horse to beat for mine on good ground. She’s yet to see a wet track but she has run well in two pretty solid races this time in. Her dam did place on a heavy track once, not sure how much of a guide that is. Respect. 15. Avon River ran on well without threatening in the Up and Coming and is right back in class here. Beat Promotions prior to that and she’s been close up in most of her wet track runs. 3. Kedah is flying with two strong finishing wins at the provincials at her last couple so she’s earned a shot in town. Soft track win was on a 5 on debut at Muswellbrook so heavy is a question mark but can’t leave her out.
How to play it: High Low Bet E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
High Low Bet wins on a heavy track at Warwick Farm in July
|Race 6 – 4.20PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
6. Duchess Of Lennox looks the best of the day here even with a small question mark on a heavy. Little doubt she should have won first-up at Kensington and somehow still ran the race's best last 600m of 34.36 (Punter's Intelligence). While she stays at a mile the wet track probably makes it like another 100m or so. Promising mare who should take holding out.
Dangers: 12. He’s A Given is a wet tracker who should always go in the multiples on heavy tracks, particularly at his favourite course. Just missed over a mile on a good track at Wyong last time. While the trip is as far as he wants the conditions make him a must include. 14. The Promise comes back from a few runs in Saturday company and has been close up in all of them. Handled the heavy okay at Rosehill last start so keep in mind. 5. Judge Judi disappointed on a heavy track at Wyong last start as favourite but form prior was very consistent and if she gets a soft lead could take catching.
How to play it: Duchess Of Lennox WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Duchess Of Lennox runs an unlucky fourth at Randwick on September 4
|Race 7 - 4:55PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
6. Colombina has had one heavy track start and that was at the Farm and she scored an easy win. Resumed with an eye-catching third at Kensington two weeks ago to Royal Witness. Rarely far away and a good each-way chance here.
Dangers: 13. Deference led them up and faded in the Up And Coming so overlook that. Too strong for a subsequent winner at Canterbury prior and he has a heavy track placing to his name. Entitled to another chance and should run well. 2. Up Trumpz ran a close third on a heavy track at Warwick Farm in March and he resumed with a tough win here on good ground three weeks back. Consistent type who should be around the mark again. 14. Dunbrody Power won her maiden on a soft 6 first-up and she’s been thereabouts in three runs since then. Not bad in a leader dominated race last time and if she handles the heavy she will be running on strongly.
How to play it: Colombina E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Colombina runs third at Kensington on September 4