By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 1:15PM HEADWATER @ VINERY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
1. Montserrat was expected to run well on debut but was beaten 19 lengths back in August, however he pulled up with cardiac arrythmia so forget that. Trialled very well since on two occasions, he should be on the speed and take running down.
Dangers: 4. Harto caught the eye with her only trial this time in, having trialled back in May, hitting the line strongly into third over 895m. Well bred filly, whether she wants further remains to be seen but must respect here. 3. Elegant Grace led all the way to win her trial at Cessnock a couple of weeks ago, her first since June. She’s probably lead based on that and if the support is there she’s a big chance. 5. Solid Foundation is another first starter who has trialled in good order a couple of times recently, particularly her first this prep in September. Wouldn’t shock to see her be competitive.
How to play it: Montserrat WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Montserrat runs third in a trial at Rosehill on October 1
|Race 2 - 1:50PM JUSTIFY @ COOLMORE AUSTRALIA HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
4. Zakat didn’t do a bad job last time in without winning, he contested maidens won by Exceedance and Funstar then chased home Front Sight at Wyong before a break. Trialling well, drawn to get a perfect run and he should be hard to beat.
Dangers: 5. Cubed shows promise and tried to go with the winner when a close third at Kensington two weeks ago. Beaten less than a length there and sure to get another nice run off the speed from the inside gate. Go well. 7. Rockarosa was solid in the market at Newcastle at her second start and she made good ground from the back to run second behind a handy type. Peaked on her run late there so could be fitter. Must be considered. 1. Moreno had good support but was no match for the winner Edison at Hawkesbury first-up. Probably gets back from the outside alley and will be running on again.
How to play it: Zakat E/W ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Zakat runs second in a trial at Warwick Farm on October 8
|Race 3 – 2.25PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
1. High Shine is arguably the most promising horse engaged today and she can kick off with a win. Impressed first-up here last prep and has two quiet trials under the belt. Gets in well after the claim, 1400m suits and should take plenty of beating.
Dangers: 2. Kedah has plenty of race fitness and that could be vital to her chances of toppling the top weight. Forget her run in the heavy two starts back, she tried hard at Newcastle last time and looms as a threat. 6. Vitesse just missed when she resumed at Kensington two weeks ago and while she doesn’t have a great second-up record she’d never placed fresh prior to first-up. So perhaps she’s come back better, if that’s the case she’s a big chance. 4. Black And Tan ran on without threatening behind Alligator Blood at the Sunshine Coast a month ago, that horse has obviously gone on with it since. Doesn’t win often but an each-way chance.
How to play it: High Shine WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
High Shine wins first-up last prep at Warwick Farm in April
|Race 4 – 3.00PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (2200 METRES)|
2. Bajan Gold had his chance win here last time, the same race as He’s Imposing, but he only just went under and he has the blinkers on. Running out of chances if you’re backing him but he has another here.
Dangers: 4. Maybach led all the way to win that race on October 7 and he’ll likely adopt similar tactics. May not get his own way but if he does there’s no reason he couldn’t repeat the dose, though is up 4.5kg. 1. Executive Chairman sat on the speed and proved a bit too strong scoring on the Kensington two weeks ago in this class. He’ll be up there again and shouldn’t be ruled out. 9 Kelvinside has been consistent without winning of late and did get close to Executive Chairman last time out. More an each-way chance though.
How to play it: Bajan Gold E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Bajan Gold runs second at Warwick Farm on October 7
|Race 5 – 3.35PM TERRITORIES @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
2. Tony’s Reward ran right up to his excellent trials with a strong Hawkesbury win first-up and he wasn’t stopping on the line there. Fitter, drawn soft and no reason he won’t be competitive again.
Dangers: 3. Cardiff scrambled in as an odds-on favourite two starts back then not disgraced at Caulfield in open three-year-old grade. Can be a bit hit and miss but should give a good account on his best efforts. 7. Calipari will be on the speed somewhere and he held on well to run third at Gosford over this trip third-up. Down 3kg and if he leads he could take some catching. 1. Paquirri hasn't raced in this sort of class for some time and while he was safely held first-up he has run well at stakes level and with the claim is in only 4kg over the limit. Chance to improve.
How to play it: Tony's Reward WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Tony's Reward wins at Hawkesbury on September 26
|Race 6 – 4.15PM TAB HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
4. Romani Girl is the best horse in the race and she won’t be bothered by stepping from 1250m to the mile second-up. She did get the breaks to win fresh but she’s in her comfort zone now and will take plenty of holding out.
Dangers: 3. Orcein doesn’t win out of turn but there was plenty of merit in his first-up effort at Kensington two weeks ago. Held up until well into the straight then lengthened out nicely to be beaten 1.8 lengths. Fitter and a mile suits. Keep safe. 7. Pancho comes through the same race and was also first-up, he finished third but thought Orcein was the better run. Still, has to be included. Another out of that Kensington event is 5. California Longbow who ran a close fourth at his first run since June. Rarely far away and while probably looking for 2000m wouldn’t be leaving him out.
How to play it: Romani Girl WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Romani Girl wins at Canterbury on September 25
|Race 7 - 4:55PM HYLAND RACING COLOURS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
2. Invinciano is a promising mare who should be in for a good preparation. No luck first-up last prep and put two on end when she finally had a clear run through sitting on the pace. Two trials have been nice, from gate one she won’t be far away and she’s hard to beat.
Dangers: 6. Blazing Miss raced well last time in with a first-up third to Exceedance then a Canterbury maiden win. She was spelled after failing at Rosehill but her two trials suggest she’s in order and if that’s the case she’ll be competitive. Read trainer Mark Newnham's comments here. 4. Taken Everything disappointed first-up but went back to the trials and was sound in the same trial as Invinciano. Entitled to another chance with blinkers on. 3. Super Cyclone is lightly raced and showed ability in three wins in the country last time in. Has trialled well and could be up to this level. Keep safe.
How to play it: Invinciano WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS
Invinciano runs second in a Warwick Farm trial on October 8
|Race 8 - 5:35PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
10. Full Recognition can bounce back from a couple of seemingly below par runs though one was on a heavy track and last start he hit the front 300m out but was swamped late. Better ridden quiet and has found a winnable race.
Dangers: 9. Great Danger will be on the speed if not leading and he was game at Canterbury before battling on okay at a mile at Eagle Farm. Blinkers on and if he gets over without too much effort he’s a good chance. 2. Murillo ran third to Baller second-up then a shade disappointing, may have been outclassed, behind Ranier at Rosehill. Down in grade and if he brings that Baller form here can go close. 7. Adana is one of those horses that will bob up and while a dry track and back to 1300m probably doesn’t look good on paper if he settles he can run on strongly. Each-way.
How to play it: Full Recognition E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Full Recognition’s last start at Kensingon on October 2