By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 12:50PM EXCEEDANCE @ VINERY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
4. Acrophobic is a half-brother to ATC Oaks placegetter Quintessa and has looked promising in his recent trials. Asked to do a bit in his latest which sets him up well for a 1400m debut. Sure to be strong at the finish.
Dangers: 1. Hinchbeast is the likely leader and could have a chance to control the speed which would be his best chance of winning. Blew the start first-up so his effort wasn’t bad and the extra trip looks a plus. Entitled to run well. Read trainer Bjorn Baker's comments here. 2. Macleay kicked off with a strong win at Kembla over this trip. The Kembla form of late has been holding up in town in two-year-old races and with the run under his belt and a soft draw has to be included. 6. Yangtze Rapids is a well bred Frankel colt on debut and hasn’t been asked for a lot in his two trials, particularly the latest of them. Would like to see some support for him but have to keep him safe at a suitable trip from an inside gate.
How to play it: Acrophobic WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Acrophobic runs second in a Randwick trial on May 5
|Race 2 – 1.25PM DRINKWISE MILE (1600 METRES)|
5. Big Bad Bruce is on the back up after an excellent effort last week and strikes a race that looks no harder. He was able to settle midfield at Canterbury and has the chance to find a similar or better spot in a race that lacks tempo. Chance to go one better.
Dangers: 2. Regal Stage was unlucky two starts back at Kensington when slowly out then couldn’t sustain the run in a very fast run Soldier’s Saddle at Bathurst. Steadier tempo suits here and could bounce back. 6. Song And A Prayer is fitter for two runs back, wasn’t far off Regal Stage when resuming then another even effort over this course two weeks ago. Won over this course last prep and is an each-way chance. 4. Herzegovina has been solid in both attempts at the mile recently and generally races in the first half so should get a nice passage. Well worth throwing in again.
How to play it: Big Bad Bruce WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Big Bad Bruce runs second at Canterbury on May 6
|Race 3 – 2:00PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
3. Aussie won very well first-up at this trip then led and probably didn’t run out the 1200m here last time. Only beaten a couple of lengths there so coming back to the short course suits. Blinkers on and worth another chance in a race with less depth.
Dangers: 6. Hibiscus Lady only had the one run last prep and was spelled again after a fair effort over this course in January. Trialling well and should have an easy passage from the inside gate. Must be respected. 9. Ballista wasn’t disgraced when resuming at Canberra with 61kg. Raced consistently last time in and from a better gate it wouldn’t surprise to see her improve into the placings. 4. San Marco produced a big finish from the back to win a 900m scamper at Newcastle when resuming. His best form is good enough and if they overdo it up front he will be strong late.
How to play it: Aussie WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Aussie wins at Gosford on April 2
|Race 4 – 2:35PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (2110 METRES)|
6. Tampering is flying this time in with three wins from as many starts. Sits on the pace and was a bit too tough over the mile at Kembla last time, steps to the middle distance now and given he has the upside he could keep it up.
Dangers: 7. Maybach backs up after carrying 66kg to a close up fourth at Canberra at his third run back. Drops 8.5kg and the back up is a good sign to say he’s hard fit now and can run his best race this time in. 3. Poulton Le Sands made a bit of late ground in a stronger race at Rosehill third-up and while he probably gives away a start isn’t out of this. His two runs prior were sound and can show up. 4. Loves To Rock was right in the market in the same race but only battled at best finishing midfield. Winnable race so worth another look.
How to play it: Tampering WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Tampering wins at Kemble Grange on April 28
|Race 5 – 3:10PM BLUE POINT @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
8. Madam Legend showed promise in her first prep then delivered on it with two easy provincial wins in April. Dominant on both occasions and drawn nicely to be right on the back of the speed. Has to step up but looks capable of it.
Dangers: 5. Broadside Armour sat outside the lead on debut back in January and did the job well. Hasn’t been asked for a whole lot in his two recent trials so betting probably significant as he was solid on debut in the market. Keep in mind. 2. Battleground was badly tightened as the gates opened in the Hawkesbury Guineas so overlook that run. Romped away with his maiden at Kembla beating a subsequent winner and coming back in grade suits. Can bounce back. 1. Ulysses is hard to leave out, he’s done little wrong to date and resumed with a game on pace win at Newcastle. Up 3kg on that but gets every chance from the gate.
How to play it: Madam Legend E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Madam Legend wins at Newcastle on April 23
|Race 6 – 3:45PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
6. Jetski has the wide gate to contend with again but it’s not as big a deal at the Farm as it was at Rosehill last time where he hit the line well from last in a much stronger race, running 33.84 for the race's second best last 600m (Punter's Intelligence). Looks enough speed on paper for him to be effective and he’s due for a change of luck.
Dangers: 11. My Demetra has been racing very well without winning this time in. Drops in class on a solid effort at Kensington on May 2 where she hit the front at the 200m but was swamped. Only has to hold form to be in the finish. 8. Petronius tried hard with 61kg first-up at this track when narrowly beaten. Just the one win to date but hasn’t run a bad race and with that extra fitness here could go one better. 3. Bigboyroy is ultra consistent and has trialled up quite well for his return. Didn’t finish worse than third in eight starts last time in and with gate one he should be somewhere in the finish again.
How to play it: Jetski WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Jetski runs seventh at Rosehill on April 25
|Race 7 – 4:20PM RANVET POWER FORMULA HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
5. Bound To Win did enough first-up to suggest with the run under the belt and the blinkers on she can improve into the finish. Drifter in betting fresh but worked home okay after drifting a fair way back. Good chance.
Dangers: 10. Lillemor resumed in the same race and she sat on the speed but was under pressure before the turn and just battled, with Bound To Win picking her up late. Can do better with the added fitness so worth another chance. 11. Joy And Mirth will likely get back from the wide gate but she’s close to a win after two eye-catching efforts at the provincials this time in. If the race is run to suit he’s capable of running over them. 4. Feather is another who might get back from the wide gate, as she did fresh when drawing out, but she hit the line well last time and will likely to so again. Probably wants 1400m to win a race but she’s tracking towards it.
How to play it: Bound To Win E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Bound To Win’s first-up run at Warwick Farm on April 29