By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s meeting at Rosehill. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 2:20PM TAB LONG MAY WE PLAY PLATE (1200 METRES)|
11. Found Our Thrill has the benefit of race experience and she had no luck at all racing wide without cover on debut at Kembla in Saturday company. She loomed and while no match or the winner was still boxing on strongly at the finish. Drawn nicely and has the chance to show something.
Dangers: 2. Blondeau had two months between trials and he closed off the latest one over 900m nicely enough a bit over a week ago. His dam is a moderately performed daughter of a Group 1 winner and he’s drawn to be giving away a start (watch for any tactic announcement). Must respect the market late. 6. Oregon Trail wasn’t tested in his first trial but was put into it with blinkers on to lead and went under narrowly to Britain who didn’t perform at his debut last week. Happy to keep him safe. 4. Galactic Fury comes through the same race as Found Our Thrill and finished just ahead of her though had a more economical run. Has to be considered if you like the filly.
How to play it: Found Our Thrill E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Found Our Thrill runs fourth at Kembla Grange on November 23
|Race 2 - 2:55PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Sticking with 4. Kateru who was a massive drifter on debut but still ran well, hitting the line okay into third at Warwick Farm two weeks ago running 32.94 for his last 600m (Punter's Intelligence). James McDonald stays on, an extra 100m is a plus and is back to a maiden. No good thing but with likely improvement is hard to beat.
Dangers: 2. Garrison showed promise at his only start back in March where he settled midfield and was charging late behind Cardiff. Had a decent layoff and fitter for two trials, the second easily the best of them, and he should be strong late here fresh. Read co-trainer Peter Snowden's comments here. 7. Pragmatism is a big watch on debut on the back of two trial wins. She’s shown speed to lead or be right there in those trials so expect her to press forward from a wide gate. Betting crucial with her and be guided by that. 9. Tawaret has had plenty of chances and went under again as favourite at Canterbury third-up after sitting handy. Will break through sooner or later and has to be included in multiples.
How to play it: Kateru WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Kateru runs third at Warwick Farm on November 27
|Race 3 – 3.30PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
7. Earth Song on top in a race that’s really anyone’s. She was positively ridden and just got the job done at Canterbury third-up and the form around her isn’t too bad even though she’s up in class now. Expect she’ll again be handy and she has the most upside so is the horse to beat but she’s not over the line.
Dangers: 4. La Grisa hasn’t done anything wrong in four starts though this is her first in metro company. Beaten at odds-on at Wyong last time and seemed to have her chance but she’s had a couple of runs around this distance range and is another still with upside. 1. Remuera backs up after running third at Rosehill on Saturday in similar benchmark but is back against the mares here. She came off the bit before the turn and stayed on okay there and if she backs up well then she’s a definite chance. 3. Etheridge might be a run away from hitting her best form but she returned with a handy effort over 1400m at Newcastle and her second-up form is good. Much better off at this trip so expect improvement.
How to play it: Earth Song WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Earth Song wins at Canterbury on November 29
|Race 4 – 4.05PM ASTERN YEARLINGS @ SALES HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Best longshot of the day here in 8. Living Rocks first-up at a suitable trip with blinkers first time. She sat handy in her trial over 900m and ran on under some urging but the 1300m fresh is the key. She ran well on debut before winning at this trip at Newcastle and can run a cheeky race here.
Dangers: 3. Bullet Master looked very strong in winning first-up at Kembla a couple of weeks back, steaming down the outside to win as he liked. Jumps sharply in weight but back to his own age and wouldn’t surprise to see him swooping again. 2. Captain Stardust may ultimately be the best horse to come out of this race given the promise he showed in his first preparation which ended with that dynamic Canterbury win in August. Nice trial win on the synthetic and he bears close watching. 1. Cock Match has been freshened up since an easy maiden win at the Farm about six weeks ago and fitted with a trial win. Claim and barrier one are big assets and he can’t be left out of the chances.
How to play it: Living Rocks E/W ($21 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Living Rocks runs second in a trial at Rosehill on December 2
|Race 5 – 4.40PM RANVET HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
6. Invinciano is due for a change of luck and if she can run out the 1500m is a very good each-way hope. Chopped out at Canterbury two starts back and last time she was forced to race wide on the speed and weakened. Gets the favours from gate one, needs to do everything right but her best is good enough.
Dangers: 8. Austria proved costly last time in but aside from her last run was competitive on each occasion. Kicking off at this trip suits and she’s had the typical quiet trial or the Waller stable. Wouldn’t shock if she jumps out of the ground this time in. 9. Ons Vier went against the pattern at Canterbury last start and charged into third behind a couple of smart types. Ran okay at a mile two starts back so the trip should be within her range and she’s one to throw into the multiples at least. 4. Vitesse doesn’t win out of turn but is generally around the mark. Had her chance in the same race as Invinciano last time and only beat her home by 1.6 lengths. She’ll be thereabouts again.
How to play it: Invinciano E/W ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Total forgive run from Invinciano at Rosehill on November 30
|Race 6 – 5.15PM MORE THAN READY @ VINERY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
3. Arraignment looks well over the odds and just about ready to win after two runs back. Found the line well fresh just behind the placings then stayed at 1250m, was bailed up at the back and made some late ground without threatening. Blinkers on, drawn well, up to pet trip. Has to show up.
Dangers: 12. Mr Dependable is all promise at the moment and probably holds the key to the race. Had excuses on debut then won easily at Hawkesbury back in February. Run down after leading before a break where he had his chance. Two trials have been okay, he’ll probably lead and could easily win. Just looks unders to me. 14. Moreno was ridden forward to win three back then went hard in front and failed. Reverted to being a backmarker here three weeks ago and ran on well late. Tactics information will be vital with him so note any change. 8. Snippetspeed could run a nice race fresh at this sort of trip. He found the line well in his 1200m trial late last month and he’s generally run well when first-up. Each-way claims.
How to play it: Arraignment E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Arraignment’s last start at Canterbury on November 29
|Race 7 - 5:50PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
1. Destiny’s Own is well enough in after the claim to give him his chance to break through third-up. Tried hard when resuming here behind Outrageous and was beaten less than a length at Kembla last time. Blinkers on, Billy Owen has won on the horse and drawn to be in the finish.
Dangers: 11. Yamazaki is a huge watch at her first run for David Pfieffer. She had a consistent record from Queensland and both trials have had merit. Any support would be encouraging and she has to go in the quaddie at very least. 4. Seeingisbelieving only finished out of the top two once all last preparation and that was his last run before the break. Looked sharp winning his recent trial and while he’ll be more effective second-up and out a bit more in distance he’s still a big chance here. 8. Excellent Proposal looked very promising with two wins at two but wasn’t ever in the hunt first-up when drawing wide and going back to last behind Embracer. Wide gate again but up in trip he should be more competitive this time around.
How to play it: Destiny’s Own WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Destiny’s Own runs fourth at Kembla Grange on November 23