Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The current favourite for The TAB Everest Trapeze Artist launches his spring in the Theo Marks Stakes (1300m). The three-year-olds stake their Golden Rose claims in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes (1500m) and G2 The Run To The Rose (1200m) while Champagne Cuddles headlines the G2 Sheraco Stakes (1200m) field. The rail is in the True, the track is likely to be in the soft range come Saturday and the first set to jump at 12:10pm.
|Race 1 - 12:10PM CANADIAN CLUB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
4. Impulsive ran out a very dominant winner at the provincials first up. You often see Chris Waller bring these profile of horses straight to town second up and they make another big leap forward. Expecting the same with this mare. The daughter of So You Think lost her way last campaign but did manage to score a win at the Gold Coast, albeit a Class 1. She was then thrown into the deep end in the Queensland Oaks, finishing down the track. Treating her as a clean slate heading into the spring and off what we saw at Newcastle, she looks set to deliver on her early promise. Hugh Bowman rides and can see her sweeping past the leaders 1. Mandylion and 2. Pandemonium who should set it up for her. Blinkers go on for the first time too.
Danger: Now the track is heavy, Mandylion is just about top pick herself. Want to back both at the odds. The four-year-old was taken on in front last start by Mollyfied and that ruined her winning chances. Still, she was brave to run third with Mollyfied dropping out to run a long last. She makes her own luck, is rock-hard fit now fourth up and was an all-the-way winner of a Provincial Championship qualifier the only time she has raced on heavy ground. Pandemonium has won her last two second up starts when jumping sharply out in trip. She did enough first up behind promising filly Madame Rouge with a big weight.
How to play it: Impulsive WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Mandylion WIN ($5.50)
Impulsive winning at Newcastle first up
|Race 2 - 12:50PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
7. Highway Sixtysix went enormous first up in a Highway Handicap. She flopped out of the barriers and the ear muffs copped the blame for relaxing her too much. They come off here so don’t expect the same again. Punters Intel reveals she ran home in 11.45s, which was the fastest last 200m split of the entire day. That is very rare for a Highway given they are all Class 3 and below horses. Her last 600m was 34.33s which wasn’t far off the split Graff ran in taking out the San Domencio Stakes. The four-year-old has drawn wide but James McDonald gets it right more often than he gets it wrong. Danny Williams is keen for her to get cover so she could drift back but still comfortable in tipping her to pick these up. A wet track is no issue.
Danger: 11. Risk And Reward comes out of the same race as Highway Sixtysix and despite there being 0.6L between the first six across the line, it’s the form line I want to be with. The gelding had every chance to win the race tucking in behind the speed so it’s hard to see her beating Highway Sixtysix home but he’s only lightly raced and has upside himself. 4. My Blue Jeans was a couple of lengths back in seventh but could be a big improver. Kerrin McEvoy sticks. 12. Handle The Truth next best coming off a big win at Goulburn first up.
How to play it: Highway Sixtysix WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
Highway Sixtysix nearly doing the impossible first up
|Race 3 - 1:25PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
5. Renewal made a mess of the start first up before rattling home in one of the fastest last 600m splits of the entire day, with Punters Intel clocking it at 34.32s. It was also two lengths faster than that of 1. Don’t Give A Damn who he’ll need to turn the tables on having been beaten 3.3 lengths. Confident he can though. The track had chopped out by this race favouring those widest but in addition to that, Renewal will settle a lot closer this time and there is a 3kg weight swing with Don’t Give A Damn lumping a whopping 64kg. It’s worth noting that Renewal started shorter than Don’t Give A Damn in the market that day too. As for the rest of the field, he looks to have their measure. Hawkes-trained gallopers improve as they get into their preparation and there is still a lot of upside to this gelding.
Danger: The last horse to carry 64kg to victory in town was 18 years ago (Stanzaic, trained by John Size) so the task ahead of Don’t Give A Damn is a monster one. Can he win, yes. Will I be diving in as the early favourite, no. He did win well first up though and showed again he loves the sting out the track. The five-year-old has won six from nine and Danny Williams is eyeing of the Epsom Handicap with him. 2. Drachenfels keeps bombing the start and ruining his chances. He has the talent though. The best roughie is 13. Golden Hits coming off a luckless Warwick Farm effort. 12. Andaz trialled well.
How to play it: Renewal WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Renewal can turn the tables on Don’t Give A Damn
|Race 4 - 2:00PM THE DAILY TELEGRAPH STAN FOX STAKES (1500 METRES)|
No prizes for finding 1. The Autumn Sun at the price but he should be winning. Having seen him a couple of times at the races recently (firstly for a race day trial and then for a race day jumpout) he is a very fit horse carrying plenty of residual fitness from the Queensland winter carnival. Chris Waller thought the son of Redoute’s Choice was too vulnerable first up in the 1200m of The Run To The Rose so here he is kicking off over 1500m in the Stan Fox Stakes. He is 14 benchmark points higher than the next highest in the race, being a Group One winner already, so is in extremely well under the set weight conditions. Tipping this colt proves here why he is at the point end of pretty much every three-year-old spring feature. That unbeaten record isn’t going anywhere just yet.
Danger: 5. Master Ash was outstanding winning the Up And Coming last start where the three-year-olds ran 3.5L quicker than the older mares in the Toy Show on the same day. Punters Intel reveals Master Ash slipped home his last 200m in 10.99s. He beat 6. Danawi who has since come out and won the Ming Dynasty. Master Ash will likely hold the front from the inside draw, depending on how aggressive the tactics on Danawi and 11. Mizzi are from wide draws. 10. Dealmaker probably wants further now but was great first up.
How to play it: The Autumn Sun WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Autumn Sun’s latest trial at Rosehill (look for Zousain too)
|Race 5 - 2:35PM THEO MARKS STAKES (1300 METRES)|
If 8. Siege Of Quebec is ever going to beat 1. Trapeze Artist and 4. D’argento, this will be the race. The Fastnet Rock colt, trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, was heavily backed first up in the Show County but was forced to travel wide the trip. He was beaten by Le Romain, who gave him 8kg, but there is no shame in that. They ran fast time and back in a distant third was Boss Lane who subsequently ran a corker behind Redzel in the Concorde Stakes. Siege Of Quebec, who did mix it with this strong four-year-old crop last season, will bounce out to put himself in the race. He has a run under his belt unlike Trapeze Artist, who also has an impost of 61kg. The case against D’argento is 1400m back to 1300m when the mile looks his best trip.
Danger: D’argento covered a stack of ground in the Winx Stakes first up but still found the line to finish third, beating home Kementari. He is a star himself and will go right to the top in time but this is a stepping stone to keep him sharp for the Epsom Handicap, hence back in trip. The prospect of a wet track enhances his claims as it wouldn’t allow the speedier types to pinch a break on him and make it impossible for him to run them down. He can win but I’m a touch wary. Trapeze Artist is all class and Gerald Ryan will have The Everest favourite ready to fire fresh. 2. Home Of The Brave rounds out the winning hopes.
How to play it: Siege Of Quebec WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Siege Of Quebec covering ground in the Show Country
|Race 6 - 3:10PM THE RUN TO THE ROSE (1200 METRES)|
The covers come off 1. Zousain and the rumblings are that he is flying. From what we’ve seen of him since he ran second to The Autumn Sun in the JJ Atkins over the mile, that certainly looks to be the case. The Zoustar colt looked very sharp in his race day trial at Rosehill recently. Chris Waller has maintained all along how much this youngster reminds him of his old man and he was a machine as a spring three-year-old taking out the Golden Rose, Roman Consul and the Coolmore. Funnily enough, Zoustar was beaten in The Run To The Rose but not expecting that to be the case with Zousain. Imagine James McDonald will ride a patient race on him from a tricky draw but there looks genuine enough speed for him to get his chance.
Danger: 13. Graff was outstanding winning the San Domenico first up. He ran 5.5 lengths quicker than the older horses on the same day and 9.5 lengths quicker for his final 600m split! He should get a very similar racing surface on Saturday but the one key difference is the map. He box seated first up. Where does he get to from the wide draw here? If Jason Collett pushes the button early there is every chance he is posted. 4. Performer ran the fastest 400-200m in that same race before topping out late, having covered plenty of ground. He’ll get the same run Graff did last time and could easily turn the tables. Hugh Bowman sticks.
How to play it: Zousain WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)
Graff winning the San Domencio Stakes
|Race 7 - 3:50PM IRRESISTIBLE POOLS SHERACO STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Looking forward to seeing the return of 6. Champagne Cuddles. Her record is already very good but still doesn’t do her justice. The Bjorn Baker-trained mare was brilliant winning at the Gold Coast first up last campaign breaking the 1200m track record running past the speedy Whypeeo. After that she matched it in Group One open age company running third to Impending and Le Romain in the Kingsford Smith Cup and then running third again in the Stradbroke behind Santa Ana Lane, where she started favourite. She disappointed in the Tiara but had enough by then. As an early three-year-old she ran second in a Golden Rose to Trapeze Artist, with Menari third, and in that same preparation ran second twice to Alizee. Point taken? She has mixed it with the best. Two nice trials. Handles the wet. Expect her to resume a winner.
Danger: 2. Formality didn’t fire a shot at her last two starts but they were in the G1 Lightning, where she pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia, and then in the G1 Sangster. She started hard in the market in both of those races. Off two stylish trials in Sydney, she can bounce back to her best. It was only in November she ran third in the G1 Coolmore behind Merchant Navy and Invincible Star. Draws soft and has Kerrin McEvoy steering. The wetter the better for 5. Raiment. She is 8:4-2-0 on wet tracks and it would take her wide draw out of play. 1. Daysee Doom is too honest to discount in any mares race.
How to play it: Champagne Cuddles WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Champagne Cuddles trialling behind Redzel – August 20
|Race 8 - 4:30PM ZYRTEC SPRING SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
Surprised about the monster odd on offer for 15. Argent D’Or! He is a very hard horse to catch, make no mistake about that, but expect him to run a big race. All of the stars have aligned in that he gets a wet track, draws to not giving away an impossible start and gets in with just 52.5kg having carried 58kg or higher in his last four starts. Sure, he is up in grade but he is the type of horse that runs equally well no matter the grade. Punters Intel reveals that last start he closed off in the fastest last 600m split of the entire day at Rosehill behind Za Zi Ba (34.28s). He was only beaten 0.2L by 4. She Knows, who did lump 63.5kg, but she is hard in the market. You certainly wouldn’t want to have your last on Argent D’Or, but he’s worth an each way ticket.
Danger: 11. Soothing gave her rivals a galloping lesson at Randwick last start over the 1000m, stopping the clock in a very sharp 56.23s. She won’t be putting this much deeper field away by five lengths but she does look destined for black type. James Cummings has seen enough of this mare to know she is at her most dynamic when kept fresh hence the month between runs and a tickover trial in between. She is the horse to beat, and a deserved favourite, but playing Argent D’or at the odds. Godolphin have a strong hand in this race with 17. Jorda, a Group Three winner from last preparation, and 5. Dissolute not without winning hopes either.
How to play it: Argent D’Or EACH WAY ($51 TAB Fixed Odds)
Look for the runs of She Knows and Argent D’Or
|Race 9 - 5:10PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
This is the perfect race for former Kiwi 3. Eagle Bay to win his first race in Australia for Chris Waller. First up he savaged the line over 1400m running 11s flat for his last 200m. Second up he didn’t get a great deal of room in the straight so should have finished much closer but suspect he was looking for further anyways. Out to 1800m and with the cut out of the track is ideal for him third up. Three of his wins in NZ came over the mile, and two of those on soft tracks. Gun apprentice Sam Weatherley takes a couple of kilos off his back and he draws a middle gate to settle within striking distance. Might look a tricky way to close the meeting but he looks the one to beat for me and want to play at the each way price. He might not be so generously priced come jump.
Danger: Favourites have won the last on race in Sydney Saturday metro for the last six weeks running. Good luck working out who will jump favourite here though! Waller has won three of those and looks to have a very strong hand again this week. Now emergencies 16. Keep Up and 18. Excelsior have made the field, they are right in this. Keep Up looks ready third up and likes the wet. Excelsior bolted in at Warwick Farm last start and gives the impression she'll love the wet. Can't see her starting double figure odds. British import 9. Opposition really caught the eye first up. He ran well second up for Waller last preparation but was straight out to 2400m on that occasion. The 1800m mightn’t be far enough. 1. High Mist grows a leg in the wet.
How to play it: Eagle Bay EACH WAY ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Excelsior WIN ($12)
Eagle Bay’s last start effort behind Paret