Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The track is in the Soft range as of Friday morning but with fine weather forecasted expect the track to be rated Good 4 come race day. The first event is set to jump at 11:40am.
|Race 1 - 11:40AM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Confident we can start the day off on a winning note with Roosevelt in the opener. Seances has been a great mare for Godolphin and think she has another good one here. Roosevelt won impressively at the midweeks on debut. He looked like he was really going to put them away when he popped out but just peaked on his run the last 200m, with Punters’ Intel confirming as much. He ran home in 12.52s, which was bettered by six other runners in the race. He’ll come on from that. He was freshened up immediately after that which suggests the stable are eyeing off Queensland. Has trialled nicely on two occasions and maps to get a lovely trail. He’s the horse to beat.
Danger: Gem Song looked very new on debut but still won, which bodes well for his future. He’s a two-year-old with plenty of improvement in him. The knocks on him are 1200m back to 1100m and where he lands from the draw with a few certain to kick up inside of him. Imagine they have to ride him more conservatively or risk being posted. River Bird next best off her form behind Estijaab and Fiesta. Gives the impression she’ll appreciate 1400m in time.
How to play it: Roosevelt WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Roosevelt's winning debut back in March
Animalia is not without a hope if they ride him to lead (has won both career starts by dictating).
|Race 2 - 12:15PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Think Regimen is a stakes-winning filly in waiting so banking on her class to get her home in this BM77. She trialled brilliantly before kicking off her campaign in a Group Three at Moonee Valley where the barrier beat her. Nothing has gone right at all the entire prep. She then bumped into a good one at Flemington before racing wide the trip at Caulfield. Her latest flop was explained after she pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia. She is deep into her preparation which is some query but she wouldn’t be here if she was showing James Cummings any signs of training off.
Danger: The stablemate Intuition certainly can’t be ignored on the back of winning three straight last preparation before running fourth behind D’argento in what turned out to be a very deep BM76! Tye Angland knows this horse very well and his trial was strong. If Regimen doesn’t show up for whatever reason, he’s the clear second pick. It’s a small field but with Goldfinch and Sedition engaged it gives Star Sensation the chance to rattle home first up from off the speed.
How to play it: Regimen WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
Intuition's trial behind Alassio who has won at Wyong since
|Race 3 - 12:50PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Want to see Animalia ridden positively. He can win if that’s the case as outside of Joyfilly Ours there isn’t a lot of obvious tempo, and he has drawn barrier 2. In both of his career wins to date, he has either led or sat outside the leader. Like the progression he has made this preparation and his closing third at Warwick Farm last start behind Higher Ground – the subsequent winner of the Frank Packer Plate which ties in Primitivo’s form – said he was cherry ripe now for 2000m. His final 600m there (35s flat) was bettered by only the winner (Punters' Intel). When he got out to 1800m and beyond over the spring he ran fourth to Main Stage in the UCI and then fifth in the Geelong Classic.
Danger: Primitivo (he is still a maiden!) but he finally gets the blinkers on. That, fingers crossed, will iron out the kink of him losing touch in the first half of the race. If he can settle closer, his finish should be too strong for these. Last start, Punters' Intel reveals he ran the fastest splits in the race from the 1200m all the way to the 200m. Just a shame about the first 800m! The fact that Merovee kicks off over 1800m is a tip in itself. He is a blueblood colt (Frankel x More Strawberries) so they can’t afford to waste too many bullets when chasing a career as a stallion. Augustus returns a gelding having last been seen a month ago in the Tulloch.
How to play it: Animalia EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Animalia's last start effort at Warwick Farm
|Race 4 - 1:25PM FLEXI 6 MEMBERSHIP SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
Yep, four races down and four Godolphin horses… thankfully the next race is a Highway Handicap so the stable is ineligible! Epidemic is a pretty handy filly and was rewarded with a stakes placing when a luckless third in the Gosford Guineas at her latest outing before spelling. She won two and finished third on three occasions last preparation and has found the right race to maintain that level of consistency. Her one trial was outstanding and she has to speed to cross and sit somewhere on pace, pending on how aggressive Zonk and She Knows are ridden.
Danger: Zonk is also a very consistent filly but feel her reputation precedes her a little when it comes to markets. She is always very well found. That’s no fault of hers but it rarely makes her a betting proposition. She does get all the favours from the inside draw though, mapping to control the front. First up 1100m was the formula that saw her win well fresh last time in, albeit in softer grade. Magic Alibi will be the one roaring home late if the leaders overcook things in front. She is at her best when kept fresh, which she is here.
How to play it: Epidemic WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Epidemic's Warwick Farm trial - April 20
|Race 5 - 2:05PM TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1500 METRES)|
Valree has no shortage of talent but has a horrible habit of missing the kick. She made a real mess of the start at Newcastle last start but still managed to run a closing fourth. It was an enormous effort. If she jumps, she’s the horse to beat. You are playing with fire backing her though. She won her two starts prior to that. Has only run once beyond 1400m, when tackling 1500m at Muswellbrook and she was beaten less than a length by handy galloper Chilly Cha Cha.
Danger: Northern River ran third behind Nic’ Vendetta and Ori On Fire in a Highway two weeks ago which was run in very fast time. That stacks up well for this. The fourth horse Fermanagh Lad has since won at Wagga. It was a much stronger Highway than this one. Include Volpe in multiples.
How to play it: Valree WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Red Captain's last start Hawkesbury run
|Race 6 - 2:45PM LORD MAYORS CUP (2000 METRES)|
Our Century is set to run a big race at odds in the Lord Mayors Cup for new trainer Kim Waugh. The seven-year-old – formerly with Lloyd Williams – resumed at Randwick over 1400m and despite it being far too short, there was plenty to like about the way he warmed up late. Punters' Intel reveals a final 600m of 33.27s. That was behind Tribal Wisdom and Osborne Bulls. That’ll blow out the cobwebs. This time last year this horse missed out to Big Duke in a bob of the heads in a Manion Cup when $3.10 favourite. He hasn’t done a great deal wrong since either, including running a luckless fourth in the Cranbourne Cup behind Folkswood. The wide draw poses a few queries but if positive tactics are adopted, on class alone, he’s right in this.
Danger: Ecuador will get his chance again. The older her gets the more dour he becomes so 2000m is the right trip now. He’ll need a perfectly judged ride from Adam Hyeronimus – go too slow and he doesn’t have a turn of foot to hold off the chasing pack, but go too hard and he’ll be swallowed up late. Ecuador won this race two years ago. Alward is a 2000m horse. That was confirmed over the autumn. Like the month between runs, a quiet trial and back in trip. Nettoyer is knocking on the door for another win but is unbelievably skinny at $2.50! Destiny’s Kiss thrives on quick back ups. Throw him into wider multiples.
How to play it: Our Century EACH WAY ($19 TAB Fixed Odds)
Our Century warming up last first up at Randwick (look for Special Missile for R7 too)
|Race 7 - 3:25PM RYGATE RACECOURSE DESIGN HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
I know, I know… how many more chances can you give this horse? I still keep going to the fact that Special Missile hasn’t been able to dictate any of his races this preparation yet, which is how he has won all five of his career wins. With Crafty Cop scratched it should allow Blaike McDougall to boss this race from the outset. He’s hard fit now, will be relieved to see the back of Osborne Bulls and loves Rosehill (3:2-0-1). This is the easiest race he has contested this preparation and it sets up for him to be in the finish with only Peacock for company out in front.
Danger: Serene Miss has won six of her seven starts, with one of those being the Provincial Championships Qualifier last start. There is no knock on her consistency – how could you! – but her price here is the sticking point. She won last start at $6. Here she is at even money is an open field of handy Saturday performers. Betting around her at those odds. Peacock can turn the tables on Veladero from Warwick Farm last start with a positive ride. He won well, beating Tribal Wisdom, two back over this same track and trip. He looks over the odds at $9.
How to play it: Special Missile WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Peacock ($9 TAB)
A reminder of what Peacock is capable of
|Race 8 - 4:05PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
They should hum along in this with five possible leaders engaged. Expect them to run along early which will set it up nicely for Kool Vinnie to charge home over the top. He had no luck at all in the Provincial Championships Final running into dead ends while his run in the qualifier prior to that was very good too. We know he gets back and needs some luck and the right shape of race, but everything points to him getting that here. The wide draw ensures he’ll see plenty of daylight and be allowed to let rip down the middle of the track.
Danger: Awoke is another that will appreciate the quick speed. She got a long way back first up on the Kensington track but she kept finding the line there over 1300m. Out to 1500m and with the run under her belt, she’ll run well here. All three of her wins have been on soft ground. Won’t get that on Saturday but there’ll still be some juice in the track. Bastia was another hard luck story from the Provincial Championships Final. He had to check off heels and peel wide. Arancini is a fighter and could be the best of the on pace options.
How to play it: Kool Vinnie WIN ($7.50TAB Fixed Odds)
Kool Vinnie and Bastia had no luck in the Provincial Championships Final
|Race 9 - 4:45PM ASCOT RESTAURANT SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
Mana always tends to slip under the radar. He’s just that kind of horse. He is seven weeks between runs but historically, has run very well of these sorts of freshen ups in the past so don’t hold that against him. He’ll come into his own over the winter as he loves the wet but he still goes on dry and tipping he can pinch this on the way through. He was heavily backed at Warwick Farm when we saw him last and thought the jockey went a touch early turning for home which might have proved the difference at the finish. It was a handy midweek race there with Bolero King winning it, Selita in second and Beau Geste running third. There looks to be a spot outside of Crafty Cop with positive tactics.
Danger: Bon Amis will appreciate getting back to 1200m. Jason Deamer certainly had to try to stretch him out in the Provincial Championships, where he wasn’t disgraced. His second to Test The World last campaign says he is right up to winning this but can’t get him as short as $2.90 coming out of what was his grand final. Gets the map favours tucking in behind the speed. The 1200m is as short as I Am Serious wants it but her trial was particularly strong and if she gets the breaks from the inside gate, will be finishing hard.
How to play it: Mana EACH WAY ($14 TAB Fixed Odds)
Mana running fourth at Warwick Farm last start