Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is out +6m the entire with the track expected the be Good come Saturday (or the better side of Soft).
|Race 1 - 11:25AM SPRING CARNIVAL ON SALE MONDAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Irish Bet ran third to Santos in the Pierro Plate back in February beating the likes of Legend Of Condor and Tchaikovsky. That run really leaps off the page when assessing the form for this race. On debut he took out the Inglis Nursery. The last time we saw him, which was in the G2 Skyline won again by Santos, he went awful. Happy to put that down to a two-year-old simply having had enough though. Has had a nine week freshen, trialled well at Warwick Farm for Tye Angland and it’s Angland who stays with him. He has got 58kg so he’ll certainly be made to earn the win but he has the class to do just that.
Danger: Galina was a good thing beaten at Warwick Farm last time out. There’s no doubt she should be lining up here with a win in the form guide, not a fourth. Best judge her off her first up effort when she ran second to stablemate Eawase, with that filly since taking out a Listed race in Queensland. Dangerously weighted with 53.5kg. Punters Intel sectionals suggest that River Bird should be at her top now having peaked on her run noticeably first up before sustaining it better second up. No excuse now fitness-wise and she can turn the tables on Ronstar.
How to play it: Irish Bet WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds)
Irish Bet’s third in the Pierro Plate
|Race 2 - 12:00PM WINTER RACING - THE DARK HORSE HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
The form guide reads a big duck egg for Playard last Saturday with the three-year-old finishing 11th but he missed the start by six lengths by turning his head at the wrong time. Given the circumstances his effort to pick himself up and get as close as he did was outstanding. Punters Intel reveals he ran the fastest splits from 1200m all the way through to the 400m. He was entitled to bottom out at the finish but his last 600m was the third quickest in the race. Prior to that he went down narrowly to Savatiano at Scone and we saw what she did last week at Randwick. He has really come on ever since Garry Frazer stepped him up over more ground and on the quick back up here out to 1500m I want to be with him. Thought his run last week (in the same race) was better than Sparky Lad’s who is half his odds.
Danger: Gresham was really impressive at Canterbury last time out. Love the way in which he continued to surge clear of his rivals despite him having the race shot to bits at the 200m. The Sebring gelding has always had ability but now he has his tail in the air, don’t be surprised in the slightest to see him go right on with the job. Keen on Playard at the price but a saver on Gresham is the safest way to play the race. Reflectivity was very game in the Scone Inglis Guineas last time out. Happy to bet around Sparky Lad and Organza.
How to play it: Playard WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Gresham ($2.80)
Playard last week having bombed the start
|Race 3 - 12:35PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Siam has really slipped under the radar in this race with TAB betting $10. There are a few spruik horses lining up here which has allowed for those odds. The Godolphin-trained three-year-old gave his rivals a start and a beating first up at Kembla Grange before running in the same race as Playard at Scone, finishing alongside Savatiano. Punters Intel reveals that he made a big surge from the 400m to the 200m there at Scone clocking 11.05s before peaking on his run the last part. Back to 1200m is in his favour here. He should find himself midfield, or a touch worse, and come with one sweeping run. He is a proven city class horse and don’t think James Cummings has ever had him going better. Big odds.
Danger: Punters Intel also offers great insight Charlayne’s last start effort. She went down to Epidemic but clocked 33.97s for her last 600m and unsurprisingly, covered more distance than any other runner given she had to loop the field from last. This is the perfect race for her now. Maps to give another start but she has the turn of foot to be fighting out the finish again. Now for Brabinger, the little brother to Shamus Award. I am an unabashed fan of the horse having tracked him through the grades but the query, outside of the short price, is that he might want 1400m now. His breeding suggests he’ll be at his best over the mile. No doubting his talent though.
How to play it: Siam EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Siam’s last start third at Scone behind Savatiano
|Race 4 - 1:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Hemmerle looks the one to beat and is certainly a deserved favourite. The Lucas Cranach three-year-old trained by Danny Williams won his first two starts, at Goulburn and Wagga, before Williams ran him in a BM77 at Rosehill. That was presumably to dodge the stablamate Coup De Main who ran in that day’s Highway Handicap (placing second, as it turned out). Although Hemmerle was beaten fair and square, the margin was only 1.7L to Lisdoonvarna with Seaway running second. The fact he wasn’t out of his depth in that Saturday class company bodes well for him now tackling a Highway. Should get every chance from the kind draw too.
Danger: Hermerle’s job looks to have been made a touch easier with the early scratching of Matt Dunn’s untapped colt Cinnamon Missile but the stable still look to have a live threat in the shape of Doctor On Ice. We see the Dunn yard get it right time and time again regarding the type of horses to bring to town so respect that this one is here at just his third start, despite being beaten when odds on in a Class 1 at Ipswich last time out. Radiant Choice next best with the blinkers doing the trick last time out.
How to play it: Hemmerle WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Hemmerle’s last start fifth at Rosehill
|Race 5 - 1:45PM EREMEIN HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Punters are not generally the most forgiving bunch but think we all can agree that Goathland’s last start is a complete pen job. Forget he ever went around. The six-year-old, formerly with Lloyd Williams and now with Kim Waugh, was never on the track at Doomben and to top it off, he was also galloped on. He finished 20 lengths last. It was too bad to be true given what he did prior to that in the Anzac Cup beating Etymology. On that occasion he was really impressive and Waugh has said publicly that she doesn’t believe there is a great deal between him and Our Century. Lubiton will take up the running giving Goathland a perfect tag into the race. He’ll get his chance in what is a very winnable race.
Danger: The obvious danger, and a big one at that, is New Tipperary. The Joe Pride-trained five-year-old is trending very nicely at the moment and there’s a case to be made that he should’ve won the Scone Cup last start. He never really got a crack in the straight with Sedanzer and Ducas Valentiois enjoying uninterrupted runs. The 60kg is a leveller but he is going as well as ever. Would be surprised if the winner didn’t come from those two runners.
How to play it: Goathland WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds)
Goathland winning the Anzac Cup
|Race 6 - 2:25PM PRE-PURCHASE & SAVE IN SPRING HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
La Chica Bella is ready to win third up after a very encouraging second behind I Am Serious last start, who’d be an odds on favourite if she was in this. Her first up run was better than it reads while her aforementioned second was there for all to see. Would’ve preferred to have seen her drawn middle but providing she can still hold the front from the inside, she’ll be hard to run down. She needs to dictate in her races as she hits a flat spot before rallying again. Doing that in among other horses doesn’t often work out very well. Want to see an aggressive ride from Kathy O’Hara to keep Hillary Step from crossing her, even if she has to use some early petrol.
Danger: Princess Posh comes out of the same race as La Chica Bella, where she found herself in limited room. La Chica is the one that should improve again fitness-wise from that outing but certainly don’t want to underestimate the Kris Lees-trained mare. She fits into this well. Inclined to keep Magic Alibi very safe despite the big weight (61.5kg). She was better last start than the form guide suggests and the 1400m looks to suit now third up.
How to play it: La Chica Bella WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
La Chica Bella’s second to I Am Serious last start
|Race 7 - 3:05PM SYDNEY'S WEST APP HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Looked a two horse race between I Am Serious and Seaway, prior to scratchings. Now Seaway has been scratched, that means the race is I Am Serious' to lose. The big weight and wide draw means it is the same set of circumstances she faced second up when a dominant winner over 1400m. The four-year-old mare has won six from nine and although she faces the boys here having beat up the mares last time out, it's not a particularity deep race. Maps to be last but James McDonald rode the mare perfectly last start getting on his bike before turning for home and expect him to do the same again here. She looks destined for black type races from here on in.
Danger: Medaille couldn’t get a crack behind I Am Serious last time out. She'll finish closer than the 4.3L margin last start. Doubt she can turn the tables but there was nothing between them first up prior to that. She is a good mare on her day. Big watch on the resuming King Viv having not been sighted for 36 weeks. In his first trial this time in he nosed out Perast and Dreamforce, both subsequent winners. Kicks off over 1500m suggesting he has done enough work.
How to play it: I Am Serious WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
I Am Serious dominating last start
|Race 8 - 3:45PM OCTAGONAL HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Have lost my first and second elects here due to the scratchings of Noire and Firstand. That sees Godolphin import Beijing Board make the field having been second emergency. The five-year-old won three on the bounce at the end of his last preparation having acclimatized to Australia. All of those wins were over staying trips but it's rare that these profile of horses don't run very well first up for James Cummings. He really caught the eye in a recent trial win so expect him to sprint well fresh, even over 1400m. Although we lost a couple of key hopes, the speed up front looks the same. Crafty Cop, who is vulnerable at 1400m, will speed across to join Special Missile out in front. Note that Kerrin McEvoy, who rode Beijing Board in the trial, switches to ride him now he is in the field, leaving Jason Collett to take the ride on Crafty Cop.
Danger: Sons Of John resumed at Scone in the Luskin Star won by Osborne Bulls. He was chopped out badly trying to duck up the fence there and did remarkably well to pick himself up and still finish off. That was first up for a year. The last time he raced at Rosehill (September 2015) he was beaten 0.2 lengths by… Winx. Grande Rosso is another that should finish much closer second up, coming out of that same Scone race.
How to play it: Beijing Board WIN ($12 TAB Fixed Odds) and Sons Of John ($15)
Beijing Board's Randwick trial - May 15
|Race 9 - 4:25PM ASCOT RESTAURANT SALE SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
Not an easy closer to the day at Rosehill! Bolero King will appreciate the drop back to this class of race and I think also the drop back to 1100m. The month between runs should ensure he is fresh enough given he ran over 1350m the last time we saw him. That was in a race won by Tougherthantherest with Special Missile in second and he was only beaten 3.2 lengths. Three back he ran third in the G3 Star Kingdom behind Spright. He is an honest sort of horse and would be surprised if he didn’t figure somewhere at the finish given he maps to stalk the speed in a race where he has a little fitness edge over a few of his key rivals hard in the market.
Danger: Akasaki was outstanding winning at Scone last time out while prior to that he ran fourth to Glenall in the Hawkesbury Gold Rush. Blaike McDougall has formed a formidable partnership with the four-year-old combining on nine occasions for three wins and three placings. Nictock is undefeated in seven Good track runs. Six of his wins have been by less than a length too! He knows how to stick his neck out when it counts and his recent trial was good. Like that Ozark has been kept fresh since his Randwick win while Difficult To Get is somewhere in the mix too.
How to play it: Bolero King EACH WAY ($11 TAB Fixed Odds)
Bolero King tackled 1350m last start in tougher company