By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is in the True position and the track is currently rated heavy and is expected to stay somewhere around that range.
|Race 1 - 11:30AM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
1. Mr Wong ‘wins now out to 1400m’. That’s how my blackbook notes read for this three-year-old. He gets that here and not about to back down from that statement. Trainer Stephen Jones hasn’t been shy about how highly he rates this galloper either. Last preparation Mr Wong ran second to Frankely Awesome over the Scone mile. He was spelled after that and resumed a gelding over 1000m at Muswellbrook, where he couldn’t have been any more impressive. Out to 1100m second up was the query last start at Randwick in a Highway Handicap and he found it just a touch short. He only just missed, however, slipping up the inside on the inferior ground. Jones said during the week that the horse is much more comfortable racing outside of horses, which he should get having drawn 11 in the capacity field. The wet is no issue and the speed looks to suit. Lumps 58.5kg but is destined for better things than Highways.
Dangers: 5. Onemore Sapphire hasn’t had much luck in his last couple of starts, both in Highways, but continues to be overlooked by the market. He has only has seven starts so there’s still upside there. He’ll be somewhere around the mark again. Matthew Dunn is the ‘Highway King’ but because of that, his horses are always very well found. That’s the case again this week. Mulwala Canal has been scratched which leaves stablemate 9. Rest Of The World. Looked to have his chance at Doomben last start and first and second there have been well beaten since. Gets the blinkers on for the first time.
How to play it: Mr Wong WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
"There is little doubt he is grades better than a Class 2 horse."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) June 27, 2019
|Race 2 - 12:05PM KENSEI HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
6. White Boots will give a sight here with just 50kg on his back. He is a tough, no-nonsense style of horse and should get a relatively soft time in front with only Victorian visitor 5. He Ekscels for company. He needs to turn the tables on 2. So You Win from last start and although the 3kg swing doesn’t hurt, it’s the odds and the way this race is likely to be run which sees me in White Boots’ corner. Last start he was beaten a length after settling fourth. That was four weeks between runs too. The four-year-old is deep into a campaign but appears to be thriving. Looking into his form this preparation he ran second to Supernova (on a Heavy 9 at Rosehill), ran second to Girl Tuesday and first up ran third to Desert Lord and Kolding. There’s certainly nothing wrong with those references.
Dangers: 2. So You Win is hard to beat but leave me out at $1.55. The Chris Waller-trained gelding was truckloaded in betting last start at Rosehill and won well. That’s two on the bounce for the four-year-old so there is no denying he has returned in great order. Possesses a turn of foot so the prospect of a sit and sprint won’t hurt him too much. On paper, 3.Tip Top has an impossible task in turning the tables on So You Win and White Boots but he drops down sharply in weight and will be put into the race here. Wide draws in his last two have seen him give away insurmountable starts. It was inconclusive as to whether he got 1800m last start so we’re none the wiser out to 2000m. 4. Articus also comes out of that same race and is working his way towards another win.
How to play it: White Boots WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
So You Win and White Boots met last start too
|Race 3 - 12:40PM WINTER RACING HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
We still haven’t seen the best of 1. Phaistos . The three-year-old returned a gelding ahead of this preparation and it’s had the desired result. He was powerful late in winning at Scone first up over 1100m before staying at the 1100m, and on the tighter Warwick Farm track, which played against him. Back out to 1200m at Kembla Grange and he trounced his rivals, shouldering 60.5kg. It was provincial level but he beat Rockin’ Ruga and Exceltic. That Exceltic form ties in well with many of his rivals. Where the upside lies with this horse is now as he gets out in trip. The son of Helmet should relish the 1400m journey, and in time, get over even further. His siblings are Paximadia and Lycia, with the former winning Group races out to the mile. Hoping he can settle just off midfield. Hasn’t seen anything worse than a Soft 5.
Dangers: Had Bare Naked Lady, My Demetra and England as the main threats and they have all been scratched. 8. Think Free dashed quickly to win at Newcastle after a seven week freshen. Talented filly but hasn’t really looked comfortable in two attempts on heavy ground. 10. Isilmo pulled up lame two back and has won either side. He is a Kementari relation so there is a bit of quality there. Got through a soft track to win last start at Hawkesbury. Second and third have since won themselves, with Travancore winning in town.
How to play it: Phaistos WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Phaistos bolting in at Kembla last start
|Race 4 - 1:15PM HYLAND EOFY SALE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Time to really let rip on 8. Toryjoy! Would love to see the tactics to be catch me if you can. The mare backs up for the third week in a row so she’s rock hard fit and the regular racing appears to have knocked the freshness out of her which caused her to throw her head around. She finally found a race last start where she could roll to the front and adopt her customary on speed position. That saw her bounce back to form, when collared by co-leader Commander at Randwick over the mile. The heavy track was no issue for her there. She tackles the same grade but significantly, drops back to her own sex. Shouldn’t have too much trouble holding the front again this week. None of her rivals are likely to push the button to eyeball her.
Dangers: 3. Semper Fidelis is a hard mare to get a read on. If she can reproduce the run two starts back when second to So You Win at Rosehill over 1800m, the same assignment she tackles here, she’d be the horse to beat. Since then she knocked up over the Randwick mile on a heavy track, against the boys. The market didn’t like her that day so will be worth monitoring for any confidence this time out. The drop back to the mile certainly didn’t suit her but still expected more. Might pay to be forgiving. 7. Itz Lily appreciated the drop in grade last start to record a tough win over Statuesquely. Boasts an impressive career record and won’t be far away again. 4. Ivy’s Court was much better than it reads last start and can improve sharply third up at bolters odds, just as she did to win last campaign.
How to play it: Toryjoy WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)
Toryjoy giving a sight last week at Randwick
|Race 5 - 1:50PM STAYER'S CUP (3200 METRES)|
We saw Fanciful Toff successfully land a hit and run mission for the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace stable a couple of weeks ago and tipping them to do the same with 5. Azuro. The five-year-old was set a task in the Andrew Ramsden last start when allowed to slide forward well before turning for home. He was exposed but still found a kick only to tire late. Prior to that he didn’t have much luck in the Warrnambool Cup. At the backend of last campaign he ran third to subsequent Sydney Cup winner Shraaoh at Flemington over 2800m on a heavy track before running 0.4L second to Yogi over two miles in the Sandown Cup. That ties the form in neatly to the key Sydney lead up, the Winter Cup won by 1. Destiny’s Kiss. His general style is to get back but hoping he can use the middle draw so settle just off midfield.
Dangers: 2. High Bridge has won five times beyond 3000m, all when trained in the UK and four of those over the hurdles. Ever since the blinkers went on he has been building towards another win and this looks his race. Doesn’t look well weighted having carried 53.5kg in the Winter Cup, however. 9. Terwilliker dodged a Wednesday race in favour of this. The Pierro gelding has never raced better despite failing to reel in Fanciful Toff at Randwick last start over 2400m. Fitness is certainly no issue, nor is the wet track. Only has to hold his form to be thereabouts again. 4. Doukhan drops 5.5kg from last start (meeting Terwilliker a whopping 10kg better off!) and was eight weeks between runs. A wet track and two miles will see him competitive. Just lacks that killer punch to put one of these away.
How to play it: Azuro WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Destiny’s Kiss beating Mazaz and High Bridge in the Winter Cup
|Race 6 - 2:25PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
1. Drachenfels will need the seas to part at the right time but the five-year-old is flying in what is his second campaign for Bjorn Baker. His Hawkesbury trial prior to kicking off his preparation suggested he had come back in great order and his luckless first up effort confirmed as much. Last start he rattled home behind Albumin and despite Jason Collett having to take hold late with a wall of horses in front of him approaching the line, Drachenfels’ last 600m was 33.45 (Punters Intelligence), three lengths quicker than the next best, which was talented filly Sylvia’s Mother. His last 200m (11.22) was also clearly superior to the next best. Should be able to use the inside draw to punch up and at least have a few pairs settle behind him. The wet track is okay and the speed looks genuine enough, pending tactics on 13. Isorich, for him to get his chance.
Dangers: 5. Oxford Tycoon is ready to win now third up. As you’d expect, he improved from first to second up, giving Passage Of Time something to chase down, albeit with a 7.5kg weight advantage. If he makes the same improvement third up, he’ll take pegging back. Yet to prove himself on wet ground. 9. Traumatised finds himself back in Sydney after holding his form in Queensland over the carnival. Didn’t have the best of luck up there either. Can be tardy away but handles wet ground and strikes a winnable race here. Can win at odds. 14. River Bird was ridden with cover last start and got the desired result. Has to reproduce that against more seasoned horses now.
How to play it: Drachenfels WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) and Traumatised WIN ($17)
Drachenfels smashing the line last start
|Race 7 - 3:05PM CIVIC STAKES (1350 METRES)|
5. Seaway has been freshened since a couple of failures but he was an explosive winner first up last time in on a Soft 7 at Rosehill over 1500m. This is 1350m but that shouldn’t be too much of a hurdle for him to overcome. That was his first run as a gelding and the win of a horse destined for Group races. The four-year-old backed that up next start, controlling the race from outside of the lead and never looking like losing. He was disappointing third up with Kerrin McEvoy blaming the heavy track. I’m not so convinced that was the reason. Then fourth up he was equally plain. Suspect something had gone amiss. Eight weeks later here he is again. We didn’t get any guide off his very quiet trial. There is very little speed engaged in this race outside of 1. Deploy so with Seaway a naturally fast gate horse, expect Robbie Dolan to settle in the first couple. That looks a big advantage given the way this race looks set to be run.
Dangers: 9. New Universe’s last two runs have been good as he has ever produced. His get-back style means he teases more than he wins. Two back at Randwick he ripped home in 32.64s for his last 600m. They don’t go much quicker! That was behind Renewal and 8. Organza. Last start he ran on hard behind Star Of The Seas in inferior ground, closer to the fence. The obstacles being the step back to 1350m and the lack of speed hurts given he maps to settle last from the wide draw. Organza, also accepted for Queensland, has been stiff not to win a race this campaign. Looks better suited on top of the ground, however. 4. Firsthand gets the blinkers on for the first time. He didn’t fire a shot at Flemington last start so needs to improve.
How to play it: Seaway WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) and New Universe ($9.50)
Seaway winning well first up last campaign
|Race 8 - 3:45PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HOSPITALITY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
6. Brook Magic doesn’t get the headlines of a couple of her rivals here, but even so, still struggling to work out the disparity in the market between her, 1. Bon Amis and 4. Heart Conquered. The Deprive formline through the June Stakes is the one that leaps off the page. Bon Amis ran second beating Brook Magic by 0.5L with Heart Conquered back in fifth beaten 1.9L. In the latter’s defence he was posted throughout but Brook Magic beat him fair and square the start prior to that over 1000m. Brook Magic meets Bon Amis 4.5kg better off and Heart Conquered 3kg better. Now, weight swings are not the be all and end all for me but that’s hefty, especially on a wet track. There is a lot of speed in this race, much of it drawn wide, so would love to see Robbie Dolan ride Brook Magic with a sit like they did first up. We know she loves the wet so no issues there. At the odds, happy to side with her.
Dangers: Bon Amis rises sharply in weights as mentioned but he is a very talented sprinter. In seven runs over 1100m he hasn’t missed a top two, winning four of them. In eight runs at Rosehill he has won four of them and run second in a further three. He’ll just flop out in behind the speed from the inside draw and won’t spend a penny in the run. He’ll just need a few breaks go his way to find space. Perhaps Plan A for Heart Conquered is to ride him with a sit too here? His best run this campaign was when he settled fourth and let down with Deprive two runs back. The other runner I want to respect is 3. Tonsor for trainer Matt Smith. He didn’t look comfortable down the Flemington straight last start. Yet to race on a heavy track but loves soft ground.
How to play it: Brook Magic EACH WAY ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Bon Amis, Brook Magic and Heart Conquered all chased home Deprive
|Race 9 - 4:25PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
11. Nicochet has run second to Kapajack his two runs back but he’s not here this time! With Kapajack an odds on favourite last start, Nicochet jumped the same odds as he has been posted for this assignment. That seems generous. Out to 1500m third up is a perfect progression for the five-year-old for it is third up in the past when he has found winning form. One of those was his maiden win on a bottomless Heavy 10 track at Goulburn so we know he gets through the ground. He has run top three in his past five starts without winning but won’t get a better chance than this. Should be able to stalk what looks to be good speed on paper and get the opportunity to finish powerfully. All being equal, this looks his race to lose.
Dangers: 4. Destiny’s Own ran third behind Kapajack and Nicochet last start, when he was ridden quietly, but hit the line deceptively well. Punters Intelligence reveals a last 600m of 34.19s, comfortably the quickest in the race. I’d expect similar tactics here given the speed. Can he give Niccochet a start and run him down? Won’t want to be three or four lengths like last start. 15. No Escape handles the wet and on the strength of his last start fourth behind Quackerjack, can get into the money at odds. 10. Clevanicc is another at double figure odds to throw into exotics. As for the other favourites, 5. Love Shack Baby and 7. Pumpkin Pie have claims. Respect the scope of 3. Gayatri but she looks very short in betting.
How to play it: Nicochet WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) and 11,4 QUINELLA
There’s no Kapajack this time for Nicochet