By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Saturday’s meeting at Rosehill Gardens. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 12:35PM GOLDEN GIFT (1100 METRES)|
5. Tassort is a half-brother to Group 1 winners Astern and Alizee and he might get the last say in what looks an intriguing battle. Bolted away with his first trial then I thought he wasn’t asked for anything serious in running second to Cardiff at Canterbury. He tracks his two main rivals in the betting and if he’s strong late like his siblings then he should go close.
Dangers: 3. Cardiff has been a comfortable winner of both his trials and he did beat Tassort by three in the second of those. He was very green in the latest trial which makes you wonder whether he’ll fall apart on race day when the pressure goes on. That’s always a risk with the two-year-olds and on his trials he’s a big chance. 4. Spaceboy has only been seen once at the trials and he put six lengths on his opposition over 800m at Warwick Farm. He jumped fairly there before mustering pace. Commands some respect. 1. Jonah has the benefit of race experience after running a solid second behind Time To Reign three weeks ago. He loomed up to be a big danger in that race and just levelled out late, so he’s a likely improver fitness wise. No surprise at all if he wins this.
How to play it: Tassort WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Tassort runs second to Cardiff in a Canterbury trial on November 13
|Race 2 - 1:15PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
7. Carillon is worth another chance after finishing just off the placings in a Highway two weeks ago where he was right in the market. Wound up three back on the fence and no gap opened up for us to see what he had under the locker. Showed a good turn of foot to win at Tamworth before that and he’s an each-way chance here at least.
Dangers: 1. Potent Force resumed in the same race after 18 months off the scene and was gallant, running fifth after a three wide run on the pace. Almost certain to get the chance to relax this time from gate four and he’d have to be better for the run as well. Definite chance. 2. Nothin’ Like Harry has a bit of a rap on him from the southern part of the state from three wins from six starts so far. Hit the lead a fair way out at Albury when resuming and staved them off, drops 5.5kg and is fitter. Whether he wants further at this level remains to be seen but is one of the main hopes. 5. Lady Mironton had a bit on her rivals at Corowa second-up, winning easily, but not sure how that form stacks up. Picks up Brenton Avdulla to ride so best include her in the chances.
How to play it: Carillon E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Carillon’s last start effort in a Highway at Rosehill on November 10
|Race 3 – 1:50PM SUMMER HOSPITALITY@ATC SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
10. Sweet Scandal hasn’t done anything wrong in five starts and might have flown a bit under the radar for this race. She’s an on pacer drawn to land in the first few and get a nice run. I thought her trial at Canterbury was sound enough, she wasn’t fully tested and was only beaten under two lengths. Would like to see her stay solid in the market but she’s yet to run a bad race and is unlikely to start now.
Dangers: 5. Slow Burn tackled Group company in all five runs last prep and didn’t place but wasn’t beaten far either. Two trials have been quiet but good enough and she finished alongside Seasons in the latest. Performs fresh and is a good chance. 6. Demerara has also been racing in stakes grade without success. Worst career run at Morphettville at her only run last prep as she failed to beat one home. Her recent trial was okay and if she’s back to her best she’ll be in the finish. 1. Irithea took a couple of runs to hit form last time in but is rarely far from the action. Suited by the weights here and drawn to be on the pace. No surprise to see her run a cheeky race.
How to play it: Sweet Scandal E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Sweet Scandal’s quiet trial at Canterbury on November 13
|Race 4 – 2.25PM 2019 MEMBERSHIP HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
2. Sky Boy chases four straight wins and unless something very strange happens in the run it’ll take a good performance from something else to beat him. Did all the work up front, taken on, and kicked away under 60kg before holding on to win two weeks ago. Back 200m on that run, down 2kg and appears to get a perfect run right behind a noted leader. On paper he looks the winner, best of the day for me.
Dangers: 7. Fierce Impact wasn’t disgraced in the Toorak at G1 level then sent out favourite at 1500m here and ran on without threatening into third. Backmarker who would need the breaks to run them down but he’s still open to some improvement. Each-way. 9. Live And Free ran a handy third behind Savacool at Flemington and it’ll be interesting to see what tactics are adopted. There’s an option to go forward and land outside the lead or he drifts back to near last. Better winning chance for mine if he goes forward but one of the players either way. 13. Nicochet was the one chasing Sky Boy here two weeks ago and meets him a little better at the weights here. Each-way claims.
How to play it: Sky Boy WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Sky Boy makes it three wins on end scoring at Rosehill on November 10
|Race 5 – 3.00PM ATC TIPPING COMPETITION HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
4. Cradle Mountain is difficult to tip against after he proved he’s back with a strong first-up win three weeks ago but I suspect he’s not ‘over the line’ as his price suggests. If they hand him favours in the first 400m then he probably is a good thing but if they don’t then something will have the chance to swamp him. Distance doesn’t look an issue and he’s the one to beat.
Dangers: 9. Smartedge is the one you’d want to be throwing in to guard against an upset. A good fresh performer and drawn to get a smother, he slid home strongly in his trial despite it showing eighth of 10. The knockout chance. 7. Dyslexic was well ridden when leading all the way over this course two weeks ago, defying a betting drift to score. Won’t be forced to lead this time around and should get the run of the race behind the favourite. Entitled to be in the finish. 5. Passage Of Time chased Cradle Mountain home first-up then on the back of that was sent out an easing favourite and had his chance when fourth to Firsthand last week. On the back up and on that fresh run is entitled to another chance.
How to play it: Cradle Mountain WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds).
Cradle Mountain leads all the way first-up at Rosehill on November 3
|Race 6 - 3:40PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
5. Island Missile is a good each-way chance fresh in a race that is really up for grabs. He produced a blinder on a heavy track fresh last prep and again second-up then cantered home over 1400m back to midweek level. Honest type and his second trial behind Ball Of Muscle showed he’s come back in good order. If they are running on then he’ll be finishing hard late and is capable of winning.
Dangers: 2. Redouble has proven a bit costly but always puts in that type of run that entices you to stick with him. Resumes at 1200m this time and after a Monday trial and that gives him a winning chance. What he needs is something to go right for him in the run and he can be in the finish. 10. Deity took a fair while to wind up but she rushed home late and just missed to catch Niccobelle at Randwick when well supported. Down 2.5kg and James McDonald rides so she has to be kept safe. 8. Lisdoonvarna won first-up last time in and comes into this off a trial win a couple of weeks ago. Where she gets to from the wide gate is a query but she’s won five from 10 and is impossible to leave out of the chances.
How to play it: Island Missile E/W ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Island Missile works home down the outside in a Canterbury trial on November 13
|Race 7 - 4:20PM THE COUNTRY CLASSIC (2000 METRES)|
20. Palamedes is a sneaky chance at big odds in a race that is tough to say the least. He’s drawn the outside in the big field and comes off a narrow win at 2000m at Canberra recently. It doesn’t scream ‘back me in town’ but it was a tidy effort after pulling and taking off before the turn. He attacked the line hard ridden quieter at a mile prior to that. No doubt he’ll need a good ride and some luck but peaks at the right time and is still lightly raced.
Dangers: 16. Rapture Miss is a typical product of the Matt Dale stable and she goes to 2000m for the first time after a game effort in midweek benchmark company at Randwick almost a month ago. Seems to have drawn well and is probably the horse to beat. 5. Bezel is fitter for two runs back and he’s the type that would be suited by a big field, he can get a smother and produce a late burst. Drops 6.5kg on his Warren run second-up and is another with each-way claims. 18. Athena’s Voice finished on okay in an 1800m Highway before making her run with the winner when runner-up to Keep Up, who won the Cessnock Cup this week, at Hawkesbury a couple of weeks back. Worth throwing in the chances.
How to play it: Palamedes E/W ($26 TAB Fixed Odds); Save on Rapture Miss E/W ($4.80).
Palamedes holds on for a tough win at Canberra on November 6
|Race 8 - 5:00PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
14. Napoleon Solo is a promising three-year-old taking on older horses here and is shaping as the horse to beat. He might be coming off a maiden win at Randwick but it was a super effort coming from well back in a race controlled by the leader and eventual runner-up. Easily posted the best last 600m of 34.28 (Punters Intel) in rounding them up. Drops 6kg, gets Kerrin McEvoy and a soft gate. With even luck he should go close.
Dangers: 10. Laussel might be one run off a win but her first-up effort at Randwick on the same day in a BM70 showed she’s come back in good order. She’ll likely be ridden negatively from the outside but will be running on strongly. 6. Strome ran some nice sectionals in her first-up ninth over 1100m two weeks ago. Steps straight up to 1500m which she hasn’t been asked to do before but if she finds a good spot from the tricky gate she’ll be right in the finish. 3. Turnberry was put in a perfect spot and ground home just in time to win nicely fresh. Can only be fitter for that and if he doesn’t go to Gosford he can be thereabouts again. 8. Destiny’s Own has been competitive in three runs back and being an on pacer can put himself in the picture and is one to throw in the trifectas.
How to play it: Napoleon Solo E/W ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Napoleon Solo finishes too well from the back to win at Randwick on November 6
|Race 9 - 5:40PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
8. Organza caught the eye with her late dive when resuming at Rosehill three weeks ago and at the rate she finished she’d have won in another few bounds, she ran the last 200m in a race best 11.37 (Punters Intel). She always improves second-up and goes to 1500m from a soft gate which should see her settle around midfield you’d think. There was support for her fresh and on what she produced you’d expect her to attract attention again. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 12. Campari took full advantage of barrier one and scooted along the fence to score nicely at Randwick third-up from a spell. Down in weight here but drawn wide so she’ll need a bit of luck but she’s the logical threat. 7. Zip A Dee Doo Dah is an interesting runner coming off his Kempsey Cup win at his second run since coming from Singapore. Not sure how that measures up but he was strong late under 61kg there so he’s worth throwing in the multiples at least. 6. Ombudsman was only getting warm at the finish first-up at 1400m and while there's only an extra 100m here he had support that day and should be finding the line again.
How to play it: Organza WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Organza makes a late charge to run a close third when resuming at Rosehill on November 3