Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The $1m Group One Golden Rose Stakes (1400m) highlights the day's racing at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday where Graff is the early TAB favourite in front of The Autumn Sun and Lean Mean Machine. The rail is out 3m, the track should stay in the good range and the first set to jump at 12:10pm.
|Race 1 - 12:10PM CABRA-VALE DIGGERS CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
3. Quackerjack is an unassuming sort of horse that just goes about his business. He has found the perfect race to bring up win number three in his career. He never got a crack at his rivals first up. Despite an interrupted run in the straight, before Josh Parr had to throw the handbrake on at the 150m, Quackerjack still produced the second best last 600m split in the race (Punters Intel). The last 200m he went to the line untested but still clocked the third fastest late split. There was money for him that day too, suggesting he’d run well. Brenton Avdulla rides here, he maps settle a lot closer than first up from the wide draw and there’s a query on early favourite 1. Gem Song wanting further than 1300m now.
Danger: The knock on Gem Song is staying at 1300m but don’t rule him out as he has a touch of class. He was pinned on the inside first up at the midweekers against older horses and although had time to chase down Tip Top, he is a horse that takes winding up so it was a forgivable effort. Suspect he’ll come into his own once he tackles the mile. 2.Cristobal was trapped wide first up in the G2 Furious Stakes and dropped out to finish a well beaten ninth. She is better than that and drop back sharply in grade. 5. Royal Celebration wasn’t beaten far by The Autumn Sun the last time we saw him, the trick is where he lands from the tricky draw.
How to play it: Quackerjack WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Quackerjack had no luck at all first up
|Race 2 - 12:50PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
1. My Blue Jeans gets out to a more suitable trip now third up having run well enough in two runs back over the sprint trips. He already has a 1500m Highway win to his name from last campaign. Kerrin McEvoy rides the four-year-old for the third consecutive time and should be able to settle a pair or two closer than we’ve seen from him over the shorter journeys. He has got 2.5L to make up on 2. Risk And Reward, who is the early race favourite, from last start but the 1500m looks a big query for that runner. As we know, Danny Williams has mastered placing his horses in this weekly country series.
Danger: Even Risk And Reward's pedigree says no. The horse is going super but leave me out at the price. Respect 3. Seeblume with Hugh Bowman on. She’s a patchy mare but her best is good enough. Williams' stablemate 11. Think Like A Fox having run home strongly at Goulburn last start over 1300m. That was behind unbeaten filly The Soloist from the Richard Freedman yard. The 1500m looks a nice progression now and she'll carry 53.5kg after the claim of Sam Weatherley. Drawn wide imagine she'll press forward with Weatherley looking to slot in somewhere.
How to play it: My Blue Jeans EACH WAY ($8 TAB Fixed Odds)
Rapture Miss hitting the line last start in a Highway
|Race 3 - 1:25PM 360DMG GLOAMING STAKES (1800 METRES)|
It’s not the most conventional preparation for 3. Thinkin’ Big, resuming here over 1800m having last raced back in late July, however like what we’ve seen from the colt so far. The last time we saw him he won at Rosehill over 1500m but was only getting warm across the line. Being a brother to Stampede, this is the trip he is looking for. He maps to dictate this small field and if they leave him alone in front he has shown in the past he can quicken and prove hard to run down. He has trialled twice and the latest of those was particularly strong at Wyong where he held off stablemate Cabeza de Vaca who has been knocking around in weight for age races. You’ve just got to put your faith in Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott that they’ve got him fit enough.
Danger: 3. Tarka held off Dealmaker last start in the Stan Fox Stakes which looks the most obvious form reference for this. James McDonald said post race that the bump he copped from the luckless The Autumn Sun actually kicked him into another gear. That’s three on the trot for the All Too Hard colt and he is certainly in the right hands with David Payne when it comes to three-year-old staying races. 2. Irkandji was beaten near three lengths by Tarka in the Stan Fox but is trending the right way. Don’t expect the margin to be that big this time. 4. Tavirun brings a different form line having won at Moonee Valley last start at double figure odds for co-trainers Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young.
How to play it: Thinkin’ Big WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
The last time we saw Thinkin’ Big at the races
|Race 4 - 2:00PM JRA TROPHY (2400 METRES)|
6. Sin To Win is up from Melbourne and with this race exempt from ballot in next week’s Group One Metrop, the Hayes and Dabernig yard look to be trying to sneak this six-year-old into the race through the back door. He was first up over 1700m in the Heatherlie and kept closing to run fifth. Straight out to 2400m second up is a big ask but it looks to have been a planned preparation. The horse won the Andrew Ramsden over two miles last preparation at Flemington so there is no doubt that he stays. Kerrin McEvoy rides too. There wasn’t much between him and fellow Melbourne raider 7. Miss Admiration last start but Sin To Win is the one that will take more improvement from the outing.
Danger: The Victorians obviously smell blood in the water here, with Matt Cumani’s 3. Etah James joining the other two in travelling up the Hume. It’s a very winnable race and this mare isn’t without a hope either. Forget her last start run when posted throughout. She’ll keep getting better as the distances increase. Discount the old warhorse 1. Destiny’s Kiss at your peril. His run in the Newcastle Cup wasn’t as bad as it reads on paper. He just gets a long way out of his ground in big fields. The smaller field here plays right into his hands.
How to play it: Sin To Win WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Destiny’s Kiss Newcastle Cup effort
|Race 5 - 2:35PM SCHWEPPES SHANNON STAKES (1500 METRES)|
6. Youngstar was outstanding first up in the Tramway Stakes. Where was the customary flat spot we are used to seeing from her? She motored to the line clocking a very slick last 600m, with Punters Intel revealing a 32.97s. That was significantly faster than Lanciato, a horse we know can run big late sectionals. She was really warming up the last 200m too, running 11.02s. The knock is she’ll be looking for further than 1500m second up having tackled 1400m fresh. That’s true, however, tipping her class still gets her home and the three weeks between runs helps keep her sharp. With 2. Arbeitsam and 3. Cabeza De Vaca rolling along, she’ll get her chance to let rip over the top with just 53.5kg on her back. Follow her all spring, she’s very good.
Danger: If Youngstar is found out, it’ll likely be by the stablemate 5. Noire. This five-year-old mare announced she had come back in brilliant order this time in running second in the Sheraco first up. Her run had more merit than that of the winner Invincibella after she was shuffled back before turning for home. From there she rattled home in a last 600m split of 35.14s which was the quickest across the entire day. The opposite to Youngstar, the query is whether she can handle the step from 1200m straight out to 1500m. Throw into the mix that it was on a heavy track, which we know she loves. Cabeza De Vaca has been well beaten by Winx first up and then Unforgotten second up. Over to you Youngstar? The horse will certainly appreciate coming back from weight for age though, dropping to 54.5kg here.
How to play it: Youngstar WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
It was hard to miss this first up run!@BradJGray expects Youngstar to shine in the Shannon Stakes and puts the mare under the Punters Intel Spotlight @tabcomau @rosehillgardens pic.twitter.com/kJHZFTMzJy
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 20, 2018
|Race 6 - 3:10PM JHB SYNDICATIONS GOLDEN PENDANT (1400 METRES)|
Want to give 6. Champagne Cuddles another chance. She travelled into the straight like the winner in the Sheraco first up but never really looked comfortable on the wet ground. She was very heavily backed too. Perhaps her previous form on wet ground was deceptive. Tipping her to bounce back on top of the ground. She has drawn barrier 1 again (like last start) so will be able to stalk the leaders. From what we’ve seen of this familiar bunch of mares in the past – Prompt Response, Daysee Doom, Dixie Blossoms etc – is that there’s rarely much between them and the run of the race dictates the finishing spots. That’ll give Champagne Cuddles every chance. The 1400m poses no problems either – that Golden Rose she finished second in was brutally run.
Danger: 10. Shumookh was a huge drifter first up in the Mona Lisa at Wyong but still ran a big race, being claimed late by the flying Savatiano. Her three-year-old form through Alizee, Shoals and D’argento reads well for this. Remember, Alizee did towel up this group of mares in the Queen Of The Turf over the autumn. 3. Dixie Blossoms ran super in the Tramway against the boys first up. She is such a consistent mare and will be thereabouts again. 1. Prompt Response was a dominant last start winner of the Tiara. Has trialled well and won first up last preparation.
How to play it: Champagne Cuddles ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Sheraco Stakes is a key form reference
|Race 7 - 3:50PM DE BORTOLI WINES GOLDEN ROSE STAKES (1400 METRES)|
No matter how you dissect this race 4. Graff is the horse with the runs already on the board. The Star Witness colt was outstanding winning the San Domenico first up, clocking slick time with Punters Intel revealing his last 600m was 9.5L superior to the other 1100m race on the day. He then chased bravely behind 1. Lean Mean Machine in The Run To The Rose despite being trapped wide the trip. He made a dash from the 400-200m but his run petered out the last 200m, as you would expect. He is on trial at 1400m but given the ground he covered on a heavy track over 1200m last start, and that he won over 1300m at Hawkesbury last preparation, he should have the stamina to see it out strongly. Drawn barrier 4, he’ll park in behind the speed and get the run of the race.
Danger: Lean Mean Machine was a dominant winner of The Run To The Rose, there’s no denying that. His last 200m split was a whopping 3.5L superior to anything else in the race. That win was on a heavy track but doubt getting back on top of the ground will be an excuse. 2. The Autumn Sun should’ve won the Stan Fox Stakes and be unbeaten coming into this. He gets the blinkers on to sharpen him up back to 1400m. He’ll be savaging the line from last. 3. Zousain can improve back on top of the ground but taking a step back, is still being priced on hype. 10. Tchaikovsky the best roughie and is a must for multiples.
How to play it: Graff WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Graff will be out to turn the tables on Lean Mean Machine
|Race 8 - 4:30PM GOW-GATES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
2. Astoria got out to 2800m over the autumn but he sprints well fresh. That was evident last preparation when third to Holy Snow in the G2 Autumn Stakes first up. In fact, he is three time Group placed over 1400m. The four-year-old resumes a gelding this time in and his recent Rosehill trial win was impressive. It’s the best trial I’ve seen from him. From barrier 4, James McDonald will have a few options. Doubt he’d want to waste the draw so can see Astoria settling midfield. That’ll give him his chance to win. Fifteen of his 16 runs have been in Group and Listed company so he won’t know himself back to BM88 grade. The one that wasn’t black type? He won on debut as a two-year-old at Warwick Farm over 1100m.
Danger: 5. Mandylion is a very good wet tracker. That was evident last start when she never looked like losing at Rosehill on a heavy track. Punters Intel reveals she ran her first 500m in really quick time. Can she back that up now on top of the ground. She certainly isn’t as effective but she’s rock hard fit, down in the weights and will give cheek again. 8. Tip Topbounced back at the midweeks last start. He finds the right kind of race to transfer that form to a Saturday-class race. 9. Fierce Impact wasted no time in settling into life with Matthew Smith. He’ll spot a start though and they might be a touch sharp over 1400m. Has the class to win with the right breaks.
How to play it: Astoria WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Astoria’s latest trial at Rosehill – September 3
|Race 9 - 5:10PM FUGEN HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Right down the bottom in this field is Melbourne visitor 15. Romanesque. This six-year-old trained by Jarrod McLean gets in very light. Like the way he is trending this preparation out to 2000m fourth up after two great runs at the mile (carrying 58kg and 58.5kg). Two back he closed well to run second at Moonee Valley before last start he settled out the back from a wide draw and speared through the pack late to finish fifth. He has been such a consistent horse all through his Australian career. Last preparation he ran a narrow third in the Listed Warrnambool Cup behind Gallic Chieftain and Yogi. Master Of Arts was back in fifth and we’ve seen that horse run well in Sydney before. Doubt he starts double figure odds come jump.
Danger: 4. The Lord Mayor has a sense of timing about him. He can only improve on what he did last start, which was win at Randwick. Love the way he dug in on the line and he was going away again at the finish. That was 1400m straight out to 2000m. Get the impression Chris Waller is desperate to sneak this former Kiwi trained four-year-old into next week’s G1 Metrop. Tactics will play a big role in finding the winner as there doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed.
How to play it: Romanesque EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Lord Mayor digging in to win last start