By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a Soft track.
|Race 1 - 12:30PM SCHWEPPES DARBY MUNRO STAKES (1200 METRES)|
6. California Zimbol didn’t look at home on the Soft 7 in the Fireball. Gets a marginally better surface this week but it certainly helps. Second up out to 1200m last campaign she beat Loving Gaby at Caulfield, and comfortably! That was from the front and with plenty of the speed horses scratched from thus race, expect Brenton Avdulla to park this filly right on top of the pace. Doesn't have to worry about stablemate Cosmic Force (scratched to run in the G1 Galaxy) either. Banking on the Fireball form to stack up over the next few weeks. It certainly looks a stronger reference than the midweek form 8. Hilo and 12. Mirra Vision bring to the table.
Dangers: 3. Dawn Dawn ran home in sharp time from the tail of the field first up last preparation in the Rosebud beating Let It Pour and Lucicello. There's a query over that form now but then wasn't disgraced in the Run To The Rose and Goldn Rose behind the best colts in the country. Is undefeated in two fresh runs having also won on debut. 9. Dirty Work looks ready now third up. Had his chance at Flemington last start but improved into his campaign last time in and was competitive with Cosmic Force and Standout over the spring.
How to play it: How to play it: California Zimbol WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
California Zimbol first up in the Fireball
|Race 2 - 1:10PM IRON JACK N E MANION CUP (2400 METRES)|
7. Mugatoo is ripping through the grades and shouldn’t have too much trouble maintaining his picket fence, despite now finding himself in a Group Three. The five-year-old possesses a lethal turn of foot for a stayer as evidenced by his first and second up wins over the mile and 1800m in slowly run races. He overcame that by rattling off last 600m splits of 33.54 and 33.43. Last start he won the Canberra Cup despite wanting to go keenly in the early stages but once Kerrin McEvoy put him to sleep before angling out, the race was over. Didn’t look all that comfortable on the Soft 7 surface dulling his electric turn of foot so will be hoping the track dries out. His two wins overseas, prior to finding a home with Kris Lees, were over this trip and then 3000m. Scary thought to think only now is he getting out to his best distance.
Dangers: 9. Supernova did more than enough first up over 2000m behind Shared Ambition. It was a slowly run race so his closing splits were deceptively strong with a last 600m of 34.07s, only a half a length inferior to the winner and a near identical last 200m (11.71 vs 11.74). That was on the back of one 900m trial. 4. The Chosen One was disappointing last start but improved sharply to win out to 2400m third up over the spring which catapulted him into Caulfield Cup contention. 2. Red Cardinal didn’t have the clearest passage first up and should get the sting out again, which he needs. International 1. Young Rascal is here targeting the Sydney Cup – want to have a look at him in this first up. 8. Sweet Thomas isn’t hopeless at monster odds.
How to play it: Mugatoo WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Mugatoo winning the Canberra Cup
|Race 3 - 1:45PM CELLARBRATIONS EPONA STAKES (1900 METRES)|
7. Gayatri was throttled down over the concluding stages of the Aspiration Quality first up with her eighth in the form guide not doing her justice. We’ll never know but having made her run with the winner Nettoyer I’d suggest that with clear air she’d have run third ahead of the pack that finished two lengths away from the quinella. In that event, she’s half the odds she is here. Something clicked for this mare last preparation after two poor runs which saw her run second to Our Candidate before then comfortably stablemate beating Dabiyr. They were both over 2400m and in benchmark grade but against her own sex, this task is no harder and she carries 53kg. The five-year-old has drawn perfectly to flop out and settle midfield without having to do any work. Has handled wet in the past but the drier the better.
Dangers: 1. Luvaluva gets into this race so well at the weights with 56.5kg despite being eight rating points clear of 2. Greysful Glamour. Broke a run of outs back in December with back-to-back wins. Forgive her failure in a Group One in a New Zealand, as there was a tearaway leader and she reportedly felt the firmer track. As is the theme with many of these mares, 4. Aliferous at her best can win this. Loved her first up run behind Master Of Wine before flattening off a touch second up. Victorian horses have won this race three of the past five years hence the market respect form 3. Paint The Town Two and 14. Cryptic Jewel.
How to play it: Gayatri EACH WAY ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Gayatri was luckless first up
|Race 4 - 2:25PM RANVET STAKES (2000 METRES)|
What leads this field? It’s a very hard race to map. Don’t think we got much of a line on 1. Avilus in the Australian Cup when he was jagged back to last before hunting up the fence. He is now winless in his last five Melbourne runs despite starting $3.20 or shorter in three of them. In Sydney, he has won six from nine overall (and three from three at Rosehill). He bounced off being beaten at $1.65 in last year’s Australian Cup to win the Ranvet and here he is defending his title. That was on a heavy track and he faces a classier international than He’s Eminent this time, with 2. Addeybb brining superior form, but thought his two runs prior to last start were excellent. Particularly loved how he closed off in the Chipping Norton behind Te Akau Shark. Convinced he is going as well as ever so at the odds, lean his way. The bonus is Hugh Bowman aboard in a tactical affair.
Dangers: Now more on Addeybb. The biggest knock on him, and it’s no fault of his own, is his price. The other thing worth noting is he just might need the run ahead of his main target the $4m Queen Elizabeth. His form reads exceptionally well having recently easily beaten Mackinnon Stakes winner Magic Wand while at his most recent run he chased home Magical, a mare that gave Enable a fright mid last year. This six-year-old loves wet ground and is very tough. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him lead this field. 5. Verry Elleegant put the writing on the wall in the Chipping Norton that is ready to peak now third up out to 2000m. Tricky draw in this small field as although she is settling better, doubt they’ll want to chance their hand leading.
How to play it: Avilus WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Avilius two back in the Chipping Norton
|Race 5 - 3:05PM THE AGENCY GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500 METRES)|
2. Te Akau Shark was breathtaking in the Chipping Norton last start. The five-year-old found himself in a very deep Group One but delivered in a manner which proved he is every bit as good as his reputation suggested. 4. Dreamforce led at a moderate clip, backing off in the middle stages before dashing home. Punters Intelligence shows Te Akau Shark rattled home in an incredible 32.59s at the end of the mile, clocking 200m increments of 10.93, 10.62 and 11.04. That is freakish. It’s not a field of 13 he’ll need to give a head start to this time with eight rivals at acceptance time. Like the wide draw allowing Opie Bosson to wind into the race down the outside. Back 100m is a slight negative but with the juice still out of the ground, even with fine weather forecast ahead of Saturday, that won’t be an excuse.
Dangers: Kiwis have already won three Group Ones over the Sydney autumn carnival and the chunk of the $1m prizemoney here also looks set to head across the ditch with three-time Group One winner 3. The Bostonian shaping as Te Akau Shark’s main threat. He peeled off Savatiano’s back to win the Canterbury Stakes in emphatic fashion. 7. Super Seth is one of the best three-year-old milers in the country having nabbed Alligator Blood in the Caulfield Guineas last campaign. Had his chance in the G1 Futurity last start but certainly measured up against the older horses. 4. Dreamforce is much better suited back to 1500m and on a drier surface. He’ll bounce back. A very aggressive ride on 1. Happy Clapper would be needed for him to figure.
How to play it: Te Akau Shark WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
BEST BET 🚨
"There's no Winx this carnival but Te Akau Shark did his best impersonation last start."@BradJGray says black odds look good odds about the Kiwi star in the George Ryder Stakes @rosehillgardens @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/V3pByzJQbX
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) March 19, 2020
|Race 6 - 3:45PM SKY RACING ACTIVE ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000 METRES)|
2. Shadow Hero quickened brilliantly to win the Randwick Guineas and those that finished behind him face one heck of a task in turning the tables. Punters Intelligence shows that, after settling midfield in a very slowly run race, Shadow Hero produced a race quickest last 600m of 33.73s. He made his run with 3. Warning at the top of the straight but Shadow Hero had far superior acceleration. Mark Newnham’s Pierro gelding won third up out to the mile last preparation, holding off 1. Castelvecchio in the G1 Spring Champion. He started $1.90 on that day and strikes this off the same projection. Looking at the history of Randwick Guineas winners in this race, 34 have run in it for eight wins and eight seconds. No matter how you cut this race up, Shadow Hero has to figure in the finish. His opening odds were generous.
Dangers: Nash Rawiller is a significant booking for 9. The Holy One. He was very good in the Randwick Guineas having again blown the start. Punters Intelligence shows his last 600m last start ranked only second to Shadow Hero. It’s a good draw for him out in 11. Pen Castelvecchio’s Randwick Guineas failure when he was asked to quicken at the 800m just as the speed came back into the race. Shadow Hero holds a damning 4-0 record against him though. 10. Chenier brings Australian Guineas form which looks stronger than the Randwick Guineas line. Alligator Blood subsequently started favourite in the All Star Mile while Superstorm ran second. Respect Warning but probably needs 2400m to beat Shadow Hero while the two Kiwis profile similarly, in wanting the Derby trip.
How to play it: Shadow Hero WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Shadow Hero winning the Randwick Guineas
|Race 7 - 4:30PM LONGINES GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200 METRES)|
1. Tagaloa was an outstanding winner of the Blue Diamond two runs back having been posted three wide in the worst going at Caulfield. The favourite 2. Hanseatic peeled off his back but Tagaloa simply refused to lose. Having poured over the replays, am now comfortable in saying it has been the best two-year-old performance of the season. The challenge is getting the son of Lord Kanaloa to peak again but like that he has had a run in Sydney when allowed to balance up and hit the line strongly behind Farnan in the Todman when clearly in need of the run. Showed in the Diamond that he relishes a fast tempo, and a scrap, with the decisive factor hearing that the tactics will be to make Farnan work early. That could be the winning move.
Dangers: 3. Farnan won the Silver Slipper by 3.3 lengths and then the Todman by 1.8 lengths. That’s a fair Slipper profile! Curiously, the last two Slipper winners in Kiamichi and Estijaab both jumped from 14, led and won. Like this colt’s ability to quicken from on speed, pinching a break on his rivals when let go. Handles all surfaces, makes his own luck and probably doesn’t have to improve much on what he produced in the Todman. Five of the past seven Slippers have been won by fillies. 9. Dame Giselle looks the pick of them. Her big Golden Gift win gave the Snowdens the luxury of plotting a path to the Slipper without any pressure. Was her scrambling Reisling win good enough to win a Slipper? No, but we saw it with Capitalist and we saw it with Sepoy. There is a sense of timing about her and she maps beautifully. Tipping 14. Hungry Heart to run a huge race and put her name in lights heading into the Sires and Champagne.
How to play it: Tagaloa WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and 3,9,1,14 BOX TRIFECTA Odds & Evens: ODDS
Farnan and Tagaloa in the Todman
|Race 8 - 5:10PM CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB GALAXY (1100 METRES)|
Love the way 15. Cosmic Force savaged the line first up in the Fireball behind impressive all-the-way winner Villami. Punters Intelligence shows he ran 33.09s for his last 600m, only a fraction outside of the quickest of the day (clocked by I Am Excited and Deprive). That was on the back of one 900m trial. Second up last preparation Cosmic Force was taken straight to the front and comfortably held off Standout. Second up as a two-year-old he split Microphone and Castelvecchio in the Skyline. Plummets to 50.5kg in this Group One handicap with big time rider Glen Boss steering. Brings a similar profile to 2017 Galaxy winner Russian Revolution for the ssame stable. Expect him to start a firm favourite now he has made the field.
Dangers: 2. In Her Time profiles as the forgotten runner in this year’s Galaxy. She won this race two years ago beating English, carrying 55kg and here she is 24 months later carrying the same weight despite adding a G1 Lightning to her CV. No horse has ever carried 59kg to win a Galaxy. 1. Pierata will be out to change that. This will tighten him up for the TJ Smith but don’t forget his first up run in the Concorde where he savaged the line in 31.61s for his last 600m. The weight is the leveller. It’s not a conventional set up for 4. Savatiano but she has responded well to distance drips in the past. Could even say she thrives off them. 5. Deprive did more than enough first up over 1000m behind Nature Strip. Big hope.
How to play it: Cosmic Force WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
In Her Time trialling at Wyong – March 2
|Race 9 - 5:45PM TAB BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200 METRES)|
7. Bangkok wasn’t suited first up in a race where Fasika got complete control in front. The race turned into a sprint home and after being held up for most of the straight, Bangkok let down powerfully but the bird had flown by then. She wouldn’t have beaten the winner but convinced she’s have finished alongside the runner up. That was I Am Excited and she clocked the fastest last 600m across the entire day (33.04s) as revealed by Punters Intelligence. The five-year-old took giant leaps at the back end of last preparation ending it in Group and Listed company. She was brilliant beating Fortensky and Haunted at Randwick back in August last year. Looking at her record, whatever she did first up was just a bonus (4:0-0-0) as second up she finds her form (3:1-2-0). Better than a knockout hope.
Dangers: 13. Yamazaki wasn’t flash first up but it was a slowly run race, and she covered ground in the run. She was still entitled to finish off better behind Trumbull but at the price here, want to be forgiving of one bad run. Perhaps she needed the run. What she did second up last campaign at the Gold Coast was incredible! A repeat of that wins this. 10. Seasons is better than what she has produced first and second up this time back. Throw her into any exotics. 11. Anjana ran better in the Oakleigh Plate than her finishing position suggests.
How to play it: Bangkok WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) and 7,13,10,11 BOX TRIFECTA Odds & Evens: ODDS
Bangkok flashing home late first up