By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.
The rail is out 7m the entire and the form has been done for a soft track.
|Race 1 - 11:30AM E GROUP SECURITY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
2. Verbek is four start maiden but it’s been an eventful start to this two-year-old’s career. Two back he was demoted from first on protest at Hawkesbury when back as if unbeatable, jumping $1.55. That was against older horses and there was a sizeable gap back to third. Then last start he raced in Listed company at Eagle Farm with Volcanic Rock proving a touch too slippery. Again, however, there was a big gap back to third. Robert and Luke Price haven’t hid their admiration for this gelding and he’s beautifully placed to knock off his maiden before the stable plot a path towards spring targets. Hugh Bowman looks a perfect match for the son of Turn Me Loose. No excuses and surprised he isn’t shorter given the query over the race the majority of his rivals come out of.
Dangers: 1. Raging Bull wasn’t suited by the breaks going on midrace at Rosehill on debut behind Cape Breton but he hit the line harder than anything. It was a very encouraging first outing, albeit in a race that didn’t rate well on the clock. The step out to 1500m suits and he has untold upside. After being very well supported in betting, 4. Hundred Proof levelled up to Cape Breton last start but couldn’t put him away. He had to check off heels to get clear but he ultimately had his chance. Willing to gamble that Raging Bull will turn the tables on Hundred Proof. 5. Royalzel comes through that same race and did jump $2.90. He never figured given the shape of the race so be forgiving.
How to play it: Verbek WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Verbek at Hawkesbury two starts ago
|Race 2 - 12:05PM SHARP EXTENSIVE IT HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
4. Wicklow produced a brilliant turn of foot to put his rivals away at this track over 1800m a fortnight ago. The three-year-old camped midfield in a slowly run race yet still won by near two lengths with Punters Intelligence revealing a 34.03s last 600m. Slow run races generally don’t lend themselves to big winning margins. That was 2.5L quicker than the next best in the race. The lightly-raced import has hit the ground running for Chris Waller, beating Peekays Legacy at Newcastle on his Australian debut. Peekays Legacy has won two races himself subsequently. This is a very weak BM72 and Wicklow should justify his odds on quote by winning this just as comfortably as he did last start, if not easier. Hasn’t stopped improving yet.
Dangers: 7. Red Santa comes through the Wicklow race too and although he was beaten 4.4 lengths, it isn’t a fair representation of how well he ran. He was shuffled back in a race that turned into a sprint home. His last 200m was the quickest in the race (11.52s), ahead of the winner. Gets a 2kg weight swing and maps to be a lot closer. He also fits the mould of being a lightly-raced improver. Clear second pick if you’d prefer to play the quinella. 6. Power Me Up looks the likely leader and is racing in terrific form.
How to play it: Wicklow WIN ($1.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and 4,7 QUINELLA Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Wicklow winning at Rosehill last start
|Race 3 - 12:40PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
There’s been an arrogance about 8. Catanzaro’s latest two wins that suggests he’s a smart horse still with his best ahead of him. The lightly-raced five-year-old spent three years on the sidelines before this preparation, his first for Cowra-based trainer Ken Parsons, and after needing the run first up at Wagga, Catanzaro went crunch over the Wagga carnival second up before winning even easier at Canberra second up in Class 1 company. That was despite sitting wide and looping the field. The runner up there Jac The Great has since franked the form by subsequently winning by a similar margin himself. The So You Think gelding jumps into a Class 3 but gets in with 54.5kg. Just has to handle the wet track.
Dangers: 7. Cavalier Charles is an untapped four-year-old coming off a career best performance first up at Nowra. Didn’t beat much but he bares plenty of respect, especially with James McDonald booked. 5. Underground Music beat Patino Ruby first up and has been kept fresh since.
How to play it: Catanzaro WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Catanzaro winning at Canberra last start
|Race 4 - 1:15PM ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
1. Lackeen went down fighting to Achiever a month ago and James Cummings has orchestrated an identical set up going into this equally winnable assignment. Won his Randwick tickover trial recently, keeping the four-year-old up to the mark. Achiever subsequently ran fourth in the G1 Queensland Derby while the third placed 6. No Compromise beat Stockman out to 2400m. Lackeen gave No Compromise 6.5kg when they clashed and although No Compromise took a stack of late ground off Lackeen, much prefer the set up for Lackeen in this. A month between runs over 2000m from a draw that should see him settle forward of midfield.
Dangers: The knock isn’t on No Compromise’s talent as he profiles like a Chris Waller-trained stayer destined to tackle Group races probably sooner rather than later, rather the challenge he faces coming back in trip and from the wide draw with the rail out. James McDonald is the man you want on board to overcome those negatives, however. If 2. Monsieur Sisu is not given due respect up front and left alone, he’s racing well enough to give plenty of cheek. 3. Prince Of Arragon has never raced better.
How to play it: Lackeen WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Lackeen’s tickover trial win
|Race 5 - 1:50PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
1. Nikohli Beagle has won four of his five starts since being transferred to Jarrod Austin. He hadn’t shown much in Queensland prior yet here he is profiling as the horse to beat in a Saturday race. The four-year-old has been working his way through the grades and on the back of a dominant first up midweek win at Warwick Farm, Austin has found another perfect race for the sprinter. Last start was a BM72 and although there’s a touch more depth in this, it’s still another BM72. Nash Rawiller was in the saddle there and he sticks second up. There’s no shortage of speed which plays into Nikohli Beagle’s hands. Settles midfield and gets his chance to charge late.
Dangers: 6. Sally’s Day is explosive fresh. Her two career wins have both come first up and although she was beaten first up last preparation when third on the Kensington track, she clocked the fastest last 600m (33.14s) of the meeting in defeat. Like the low draw allowing Josh Parr to expose her late. 3. Irish Angel and 5. Fastconi are always competitive at this level. If the track is closer to heavy than soft come race day, elevate 12. No Laughing Matter.
How to play it: Nikohli Beagle WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"Nash sticks, maps well, handles all surfaces and looks a touch better than this grade."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) June 17, 2021
|Race 6 - 2:25PM RANVET HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
The missing ingredient to 12. Tycoonist’s luckless preparation this time in appears to be a soft draw. He finally gets that fourth up with the bonus of James McDonald jumping on. The three-year-old has been forced to give away big starts to his rivals in his three runs this campaign, two back when second to Gravina while last start the wide draw forced Kathy O’Hara’s hand in riding for luck. It didn’t come and he ran second. He should have won. His last win came over the Rosehill 1300m where he beat Blaze A Trail. The son of Written Tycoon has won from in front in the past and although he’s unlikely to lead up here, don’t be surprised to see him park a pair back. Probably doesn’t want it too heavy.
Dangers: 3. Count De Rupee’s Stradbroke ambitions were shattered in the Fred Best Classic where he ran a disappointing eighth. In his defence, hard the fence hasn’t been the best ground at Eagle Farm all Queensland carnival and it was a deep race with Ayrton running second to Apache Chase. Former Victorian-trained gelding 8. Taksu looks a handy pick up for Joe Pride. He should have won at Ballarat two back before boxing on to place at Caulfield. Brings a strong SP profile. Perennial placegetter 14. Papal Warrior is a chance if he makes the field.
How to play it: Tycoonist WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Tycoonist last start at Rosehill
|Race 7 - 3:05PM XXXX W J MCKELL CUP (2000 METRES)|
3. Yonkers has won three of his past six starts, including last start at Caulfield, with the runner up from that race, Last Week, since franking the form by winning the Apsley Cup. Prior to that Yonkers just missed in a three-way go in the Wagga Cup, where Spirit Ridge, Paths Of Glory and Knights Order all finished behind him. There’s great depth to his recent form lines. Go back three starts and he won at Caulfield by near five lengths. The other advantages the five-year-old has is that he handles on surfaces and can race handy. That latter one is significant as outside of stablemate 2. Wu Gok, there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed on paper. If he parks outside of the leader, he’ll be hard to beat.
Dangers: Wu Gok has scrambled home over 2400m in the past but have always thought of him as a better on speed 2000m horse. Will get his toe in the ground again on Saturday and he is building towards another win on the back of an improved fourth in the Winter Cup. This looks a target race for 12. Approach Discreet and he beat 6. Parry Sound on his merits at Rosehill last preparation giving him weight. He did enough last start in easier grade. 8. Stockman doesn’t have a turn of foot which is a worry coming back from two 2400m races. The wetter the better. 11. Brutality is racing like he wants 2000m.
How to play it: Yonkers WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Yonkers in the Wagga Cup
|Race 8 - 3:45PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
7. Katalin is the horse to beat but she has a price, as all horses do. This race is no gimme, with a couple of handy mares engaged, so would be reluctant to charge in at sub even money. The case for her makes it self, however, boasting three wins from her five starts with the latest of those a three length trouncing of her rivals first up on the Kensington track. That was despite spending 14 months on the sidelines. James Cummings has given her a month to recover from that victory and she moved through the line sweetly in a tickover trial at Randwick, matching motors with Emeralds over the final stages. Has black type ability and this is another stepping stone. The knock is her best runs to date have been on good tracks.
Dangers: The tactics were wrong on 15. Expat last start. Expect her to roll to the front if she makes the field. 1. Belluci Babe reeled off a very strong close at Randwick last start, where Malkovich ran second, but can she replicate that out to 1300m with 60.5kg from a wide draw? 3. Lucicello , 10. Starla, 9. Lunar Tramp and 12. Rock My Wand (wetter the better) have place claims.
How to play it: Katalin WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Katalin sprinting clear first up
|Race 9 - 4:25PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
12. Wairere Falls was unlucky last start at Rosehill over 1500m in this same BM78 grade. It could prove to be the one that got away for the consistent gelding but he couldn’t be placed any better to atone. First up the four-year-old did his best work late behind Charleise, a subsequent Listed winner, before stablemate Great House bobbed at the right time to deny him in a four way go with Zing running third and 7. Steely just behind that trio in fourth. It’s generally an alarm bell following the form from a race with a blanket finish but there aren’t too many other ways to turn. Maps well, will handle whatever surface Rosehill throws up come Saturday and should be at his top now third up.
Dangers: 13. Gemmahra gets Josh Parr and has started hard in the market all preparation. She’s easy to overlook up in grade slightly but she’ll be in the first couple and liked the way she chased last start after settling midfield. 8. Oscar Zulu will need a peach from Hugh Bowman to go back-to-back but this isn’t a great deal harder than what he won last start. 6. Accountability improved sharply second up last preparation to beat Stockman. That was out to 1800m, however. Will likely find the 1500m too sharp but liked his work through the line first up in the same race as Wairere Falls. 4. Criminal Code has drawn horribly but the booking of James McDonald second up is a signal of intent. Caught the eye over 1300m first up. 3. Badoosh is a player if he can find his best.
How to play it: Wairere Falls WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Wairere Falls running second last start