By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is in the True and the track is expected to remain in the Good range come Saturday.
|Race 1 - 11:30AM LONHRO HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
2. Espinola resumed a gelding at Wagga first up and was devastating in victory. The two-year-old showed brilliant acceleration with Punters Intelligence revealing a 10.97s split from the 400-200m. The race was over within a couple of hundred metres once he saw daylight, and he was still green at the finish too. He only has to stay within striking distance, helped by the small field and cosy draw, to run home over the top of these too. There is good speed in the race, particularly with 1. Diamond Thunder having to work early to cross from a wide draw. Espinola wasn’t far away from Time To Reign and Jonah at Rosehill over the autumn, after being slowly away at the start, and those two mixed it with the autumn’s best youngsters. Time To Reign of course, beat Tassort before running fifth in the Golden Slipper.
Dangers: Diamond Thunder held off 3. Hulk quite comfortably at Warwick Farm last start but the case for Hulk to the turn the tables is pretty compelling. Hulk was first up and after matching Diamond Thunder with near identical splits from the 600-200m, Hulk peaked on his run being first up, running a length slower for the final 200m. Also in his favour here is a 2kg weight swing, the blinkers going on and the petrol Diamond Thunder will need to spend to find the front again. Can’t see Rachel King giving up the inside cheaply on 6. Freaky Freckles. Hulk might be forced to drop back and let it all unfold in front of him. Chris Waller snuck 4. Kubrick down to Melbourne to win impressively on debut at Cranbourne, really attacking the line. He looks certain to go on with it.
How to play it: Espinola WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds)
Espinola winning at Wagga first up
|Race 2 - 12:05PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Plenty of lightly-raced talent in this week’s TAB Highway Handicap and Murwillumbah-based trainer Matt Dunn has yet another strong hand. Dunn has lost Bullet Speed (original top pick here) but still has the favourite in 6. Green Reign. The three-year-old was quickly $8.50 into $3.50 with TAB after markets opened. Where there is smoke there’s fire. He was expected to win on debut jumping at $1.65 after impressing in his trials, and although the margin was narrow he showed good desire to stick his neck out when it counted. He has been gelded since then, presumably after an ordinary trial at Deagon, before stepping out at the Gold Coast and then his home track where he looked particularly strong. Happy to gamble that the son of Lope De Vega is the real deal. The noises out of the stable suggest as much.
Dangers: 10. Plonka ran faster time than the BM58 same day at Tamworth last start over 1000m. He was rolled on debut by Fearnley at Grafton but that horse has since won again, and there was nine lengths back to third! 1. Mick The Hat is ready to win third up and covered ground last start at Hawkesbury. Running a strong 1200m is the query, but he should get a very soft run in transit which will help while 9. Elm Court is another one that maps to get a perfect trail. 3. Zardoro and 8. So Shy can improve sharply and are worth including in exotics.
How to play it: Green Reign WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Green Reign’s latest trial – May 10
|Race 3 - 12:40PM MIGHT AND POWER HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
We’re set to lose Aliferous and Welsh Legend to Queensland here so prices will trim right up when they come out. 12. Jazzland has built an imposing little record from his six starts, winning three of them and running second on two other occasions. One of those seconds came first up at Warwick Farm, where in a muddling run race Josh Parr was forced into making an early move but the four-year-old couldn’t match Vega’s turn of foot over the mile. That horse has since franked the form losing by a whisker to Primitivo on Wednesday. Second up last campaign Jazzland stepped straight out to 1880m, as he does here, and ran second to Scarlett Dream. He was comprehensively beaten but there was a gap back to third. With 54kg, Rachel King riding and the versatility to settle anywhere in the first four, Kristen Buchanan’s emerging stayer looks the horse to beat.
Dangers: 1. So You Win was outstanding first up at Hawkesbury, slipping home in 33.95s for his last 600m to just miss to Tamarack (Punters Intelligence). The race was run to suit but he isn’t a noted first up performer and second up he tends to improve sharply (3:2-0-0). On his day, he displays the qualities of a horse that wouldn’t be out of place in Group races. His dominant win at Rosehill last campaign is an example of this. He can mix his form though. 14. Romani Girl was trapped wide in the G1 ATC Oaks the last time we saw her. Forget she ran. Her fourth in the Kembla Grange Classic is a strong reference for this and liked her tickover trial since. 8. Ombudsman is ready to win but stays at 1800m. 2. Mushaireb is racing well but looks a touch short in the market.
How to play it: Jazzland WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE So You Win ($8)
Jazzland’s Warwick Farm return
|Race 4 - 1:15PM JIM CASSIDY HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
4. Star Of The Seas is six runs into his preparation but just keeps on turning up. He chased home Renewal in a fast-run race last start clocking the best last 200m split in the race (Punters Intelligence), after not been able to match Renewal from the 400-200m. His strength across the line suggests 1500m is the right trip for him now. He was brave the start prior to that at Randwick having been posted wide the trip. That Special Missile form line has been franked, as has his second to Archedemus earlier in the preparation. If there is a query it’s where he gets to from the wide draw given the race is likely to be run at a fairly controlled tempo. The four-year-old is starting to creep up in the weights too. That said, he is the one with the recent runs on the board, and the miles in his legs for Robbie Dolan to put him into the race early if need be.
Dangers: Big watch on import 7. Mawaany Machine. The six-year-old grey was bought by Australian Bloodstock as a 2000m prospect so 1500m is short of his best but he might have the class to overcome it. Hasn’t been sighted at the trials so we’re going in sight unseen. Tellingly, as soon as markets went up with TAB he was backed. It’s the right time to be aggressive on 10. Hogmanay. There isn’t much speed here and he led or sat outside of the leader in his last four wins. Monitor for the change of tactics announcement. The same can be said for 4. Up ‘N’ Rolling . If the plan is to slide forward from the wide draw, expect sharp improvement second up off a long break. 5. Turnberry gets on speed favours while 6. Savacool will be hitting the line but is likely to find a couple too slick.
How to play it: Star Of The Seas WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Big watch MAWAANY MACHINE for @Austbloodstock (Sat R4) at @rosehillgardens. Formerly known as just Mawaany, here's the last time we saw him - Last Oct at Leopardstown - 2400m - The big grey out in front. Looks to have an engine! @TonyBrassel @DufficyRon @SkyRacingAU #bigwatch pic.twitter.com/Hki0mm8Kac
— Dave Stanley (@daveystan1) May 15, 2019
|Race 5 - 1:55PM JACK DENHAM HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Have been waiting for 4. Oxford Tycoon to make his return. This is a colt loaded with talent. It all came a touch too soon for him in his first campaign but he was only a length off Sandbar on debut before finishing 1.1L fifth in the G2 Skyline. Kim Waugh tipped him out after that and kicked off his second campaign at Wyong. Despite being trapped wide throughout the son of Written Tycoon kicked away to win emphatically – the placegetters (Hemsted and Rectitude) are reasonably handy horses too. He then started second favourite in the Listed Rosebud, just behind Plague Stone, but he was too bad to be true, running last where he pulled up lame. He hasn’t raced since August last year, recovering from a minor tear, but his two trials have been very strong and he should be fit enough for 1100m. Have mapped him to tuck in behind the speed from the cosy draw.
Dangers: 2. Skyray has been completely shunned by the market here. Clarry Conners’ gelding was explosive first up last preparation at Hawkesbury over 1000m. Nothing much went to plan thereafter in five runs. He showed a glimpse of his best at Warwick Farm fourth up but pulled up lame in two other starts while was said to not be comfortable racing inside horses in another failure. That won’t be the excuse here drawn 14! Liked his latest trial. Big odds. 6. Call Me Royal ran his rivals into the ground in his two wins last preparation. Will he have to speed to cross here? He was ridden quietly, by design, in his trials. That’s curious. 10. Exceltic is becoming costly but finds another suitable race.
How to play it: Oxford Tycoon WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Skyray WIN ($26)
Oxford Tycoon’s latest trial – Newcastle, May 9
|Race 6 - 2:35PM JB CUMMINGS HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
8. Eawase drops back to a BM78 having contested three Group Three races prior. First up she wasn’t at home in the soft conditions before being squeezed out in the James Carr. She was only beaten 2.1L but should’ve finished even closer. That form line through Into The Abyss and Asharani was franked at Scone against the older horses in the Dark Jewel. In Eawase’s latest run, she tackled the boys in the Hawkesbury Guineas fought out by Military Zone and Trope, and although the effort looked a touch plain to the eye, she was dropped when her rivals sprinted but picked herself again to hit the line with an 11.44s last 200m (Punters Intelligence), which was only bettered by the quinella. She is one dimensional, there is no denying that but with the pace likely to be on up front, she’s an appealing price.
Dangers: 9. Reelem In Ruby has returned in great order and is the hype horse going into this on the back of a sweeping victory at Warwick Farm. She is a talented filly with a sharp turn of foot, but looks very short in early markets. Has to run a strong 1400m against better company now. More on the speed, 4. Aeecee Tong De has to be aggressive from the draw to get across while connections of 14. Constellations will want to make full use of the 49kg. Then there is the keen going 6. Toryjoy, having been up to her old tricks in her recent barrier trial. 5. Levee Bank started $10 in the Wagga Town Plate and found the line to run fifth. Back to her own sex and out to a more suitable trip, she has the talent to give this a shake at silly odds.
How to play it: Eawase WIN ($13 TAB Fixed Odds) and Levee Bank WIN ($34)
Eawase and Jen Rules in the James Carr two starts back
|Race 7 - 3:15PM LORD MAYORS CUP (2000 METRES)|
5. Grey Lion and trainer Matt Smith have certainly clicked with the seven-year-old winning two of his three starts for the Warwick Farm-based stable. Grey Lion has had two runs this time in, first up over 1500m in the Doncaster Prelude, where he did enough given it was 1500m on heavy ground. He was explosive last start though (at an SP of $41), not typically a word associated with this stayer. The leaders crawled in the JRA Plate which turned the race into a sprint home, with Punters Intelligence clocking Grey Lion’s last 600m in 33.12s. That was only bettered by Brave Song across the entire day. Of course, the set up of the race had plenty to do with that but he was 3.5L quicker than the next best last 600m in the race. Has trialled nicely since then, having been kept fresh. Drawn barrier 4, he should get the run of the race and if he brings that same acceleration, its game over.
Dangers: 12. Live And Free put the writing on the wall last start at Kensington, running third despite lumping 61kgs even after the 3kg claim. Of what we have seen from the four-year-old to date he gets better deep into his campaigns so he could need this run too to be at his absolute top. Tactics will be interesting on the versatile 14. Tamarack from the wide draw. He sprinted well first up to win at Hawkesbury and like the three weeks between runs straight out to 2000m. Sixties Groove likely runs in the Doomben Cup but if he runs here, respect his class on the back of a good return in the Hawkesbury Gold Cup behind Archedumus and Tom Melbourne, with that duo running the quinella again since in Queensland. 8. Emperor’s Way and 16. White Boots are so honest and look to be suited.
How to play it: Grey Lion WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Grey Lion’s turn of foot in the JRA Plate!
|Race 8 - 3:55PM SO YOU THINK HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Punters will be holding their breath with 6. Deprive drawn barrier 3. In all likelihood the Godolphin four-year-old will be tucked back on the fence. He’ll need the breaks to fall his way but if they do, he should stretch his winning sequence to three. He has won four of seven, with his latest two wins suggesting he was destined for Group races. Two back he beat Miss Toorak Flyer, Mister Songman and Military Zone at Randwick in a hot BM76 before gapping his rivals over 1200m at Randwick. The son of Denman has always had the talent and now starting to realise it. Has had two trials this time in, in the first of those he trucked to the line under a hold before being asked to find the line at Randwick, and that he did. The gelding looks to have returned in the same form as he was in last preparation and we haven’t reached his ceiling yet.
Dangers: Like Deprive, we probably still haven’t seen the best of lightly-raced mare 5. Newsfan either. The Kim Waugh-trained five-year-old was brilliant winning first up last preparation, running a last 600m in a sizzling 32.88s (Punters Intelligence) which included a last 200m of 10.99s. Not surprisingly, they were the fastest closing splits across the entire meeting. The leader went slowly in front but it was still a dynamic win. Doesn’t look to have any option other than to go back from the wide draw. Has never finished outside of the top two in eight career starts. 13. Desert Lord is a talent but will have to cope being in amongst horses in a fast-run race. 10. No Doubt had no luck at all last start. Throw him into exotics.
How to play it: Deprive WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Newsfan ($5.50)
The last time we saw Deprive before a break
|Race 9 - 3:55PM SO YOU THINK HALL OF FAME HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
5. Asterius is a horse that gets very dour, very quickly. However, in all three of his first up runs throughout his career he has shown a brilliant turn of foot. Two of them were at the provincials but his latest fresh run proved he could do it in this company as well. The form guide reads eighth but the four-year-old was desperate for clear air in a muddling run race. Despite an interrupted passage, Asterius ran his last 200m in 10.99s (Punters Intelligence). That was over 1300m too. After that eye-catching effort, he was hard in the market for subsequent four runs but failed to deliver. The son of Sebring looked full of running when given a quiet trial at Rosehill behind Irithea, towing the jockey across the line. He’ll spot the leaders a big start and rocket home. Fingers crossed he doesn’t run out of time. Not too down on the wide draw as he’s better off out there, clicking through his gears.
Dangers: 9. Monsieur Sisu might have proved last preparation he is better placed over 1400m and a mile as opposed to staying trips. He was set alight first up last campaign and dug in well to finish as close as he did. Suspect they’ll seek some cover this time given the speed engaged. He started $9 in the G3 Festival only five starts ago. 2. Mapmaker saves his best for Rosehill (16:3-4-5) and kicking off over 1400m after a freshen suggests he is ready to go. 13. Red Currant still has upside and was a strong winner at Newcastle last start. Can see why the support has come in for 14. Nicco Lad being up and running but he looks to have bottomed out now.
How to play it: Asterius WIN ($12 TAB Fixed Odds), and 2,3,5,9,13 BOX TRIFECTA
Asterius was luckless first up last preparation