By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 3m and we’ll start the week with the track in the heavy range but with fine weather forecasted, the form has been done for a soft track.
|Race 1 - 11:30AM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
5. Lucicello looked much more comfortable ridden quieter last start producing a brilliant turn of foot. Punters Intelligence highlights that her last 600m of 34.22s was the second quickest across the entire day (Covert Ops fastest) and her last 200m section (11.60s) was bettered only by The Party Girl. Lucicello led first up and although she looked to have her chance, turns out Leviathan is a smart two-year-old himself giving Funstar a run for her money. She has still got a few tricks but also possesses a big finish. We know what she is capable of, unlike a couple of the more fancied runners, having to take them on trust.
Dangers: 9. Spend has looked the goods in his two trials, the latest of those towelling up Reloaded. Where the water gets a muddy is those trials were back in March. A reported minor setback saw Team Hawkes back off. The $1.55m Snitzel colt was down to trial at Rosehill last week but the set was abandoned due to the rain. Where does that leave him fitness-wise? The money has come early and the stable have a huge opinion of him! 3. True Detective has the scope to improve sharply this preparation but he’ll need to albeit off his winning debut at Rosehill. He has also been priced on potential. Lovely trials this time in and drawn to get the gun run, however. Lanigera won stylishly over 900m at Newcastle to break his maiden but it’s hard to get much of a read off that.
How to play it: Lucicello EACH WAY ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Lucicello winning well last start
|Race 2 - 12:05PM BOOK SPRING HOSPITALITY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
2. Phaistos can turn the tables on 1. Call Me Royal from their last start clash. Phaistos was left a touch flatfooted when Call Me Royal went for home but really picked up late. His last 200m was the most eye-catching part of his race, hitting the line in 12.03s the fastest of his rivals by a clear 1.5 lengths. The step out to 1500m looks a perfect progression now. The three-year-old was an explosive winner at Kembla prior to that on soft ground, which he’ll be much more comfortable on as opposed to the heavy deck he worked through last start. Being by Helment and a half to Paximadia, he’s capable to going to another level again as he creeps out in trip. 7. Plenty being in the race will ensure Call Me Royal isn’t allowed to dictate again. Finds Hugh Bowman and drawn to get a lovely midfield trail.
Dangers: Call Me Royal was given a beautiful ride by Sam Weatherly last start, giving his rivals the slip at the 800m after controlling the early stages. A sit and sprint wouldn’t have suited her so Weatherly made his rivals quicken suddenly in the wet ground as opposed to being allowed to work through their gears. That was the winning move. Doesn’t get the same set up here so could be found vulnerable late. 3. Cinquedea has won his past two by a combined margin of 8.2 lengths! The latest of those was a demolition job over Nacho Libre and Chosen Prince at Newcastle over the mile. The start prior to that Chosen Prince was nosed out by Black And Tan at Scone. Certainly deserves his shot in this company now and gets Blake Shinn aboard. Should camp behind the leaders.
How to play it: Phaistos WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
Phaistos can turn the tables on Call Me Royal
|Race 3 - 12:40PM LINDSAY MURPHY TAB HIGHWAY (1400 METRES)|
12. Nashian was forced to go back to last from a wide draw in a Highway last start but love the way she rattled home late. Her last 600m of 35.09s was easily the quickest in the race with the majority of that dominance coming in her final 200m (12.07). That unplaced run saw her rating stay on 59 and after Robbie Dolan’s claim once more, carries just 51.5kg. From the middle draw, expect the three-year-old filly to be much closer in the run. In her three wins to date she has settled second, third and fourth. The one recent blemish in her form was at Taree when fifth but did an amazing job to stay on her feet when looking to squeeze through the narrowest gaps. She’s flying and looks the horse to beat for trainer Marc Quinn.
Dangers: Nashian will need to turn around a 1.6L margin on stablemate 1. Gumshoe but he rises 3.5kg having won first up and won’t be afforded the same cushy run from a wide draw. Perhaps Jenny Duggan pushes the button and takes control from the front. Two great chances at longer odds are 10. Ester’s Rose and 11. Heaven’s High. There was nothing between them in the Grafton Guineas Prelude when beaten by subsequent Grafton Guineas winner Charmed Princess. The fourth horse there has since trotted in herself. 3. Dulette is thriving under Wayne Wilkes since transferring from Victoria and can’t be dismissed, chasing a hattrick.
How to play it: Nashian WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Look for Nashian hitting the line late
|Race 4 - 1:15PM ATC MEMBER TOURS HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
10. Waking Moment, 2. Primitivo, Waking Moment, Primitivo. Really mulled over this race. Waking Moment gets the nod because she maps to be closer in the run, carries 8.5kg less and is the better price of the two. Yes, she has won just one from 20 starts but happy to treat Waking Moment with a clean slate and judge her simply off he form since joining Chris Waller. She has been terrific in both runs and there is a real sense of timing about this five-year-old third up. She chased home Toryjoy last start working past handy filly Itz Lily. She takes on the boys here but outside of Primitivo it looks a race lacking genuine winning chances. Expect Robbie Dolan to be more aggressive early than last start to hold a spot. If she can camp behind the speed, Primitivo faces the task of running her down giving away a stack of weight. Can’t see Waking Moment missing each way.
Dangers: 2. Primitivo was outstanding last start out to 2000m. His last 600m was a slick 34.62s with a last 200m of 11.67s and he loves the wet. Wu Gok ran second there and has franked the form since. Will he be able to quicken the same way with an extra 3kg? Jay Ford will need to produce a peach from barrier 10. There might be a spot for him if he track across with 1.Hogmanay. Otherwise, they ride him cold. Would be surprised if the winner didn’t come from those two but respect 3. High Power. He has been well beaten by Primitivo in his last two outings but does get a 4.5kg swing from last start, but has near three lengths to make up. He is ready to win, though.
How to play it: Waking Moment WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Waking Moment is ready now third up after this
|Race 5 - 1:50PM ATC FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
There’s speed drawn wide in this race but doubt they’ll be able to cross 3. Spiritual Pursuit. The Jason Coyle-trained filly looked vulnerable last start dropping from 1100m first up, when collared by Wagner, back to 1000m. However, the three-year-old didn’t get attacked in front as much as first thought and she kicked clear at the finish, comfortably holding off subsequent winner Invictus Salute and 4. Deity . That was closer to the fence too, which was inferior ground. She is very fast, skips through the wet and will now be at her top third up. It was third up last preparation where she split Baller and Prophet’s Thumb over 1100m at Rosehill on a soft track. That was with 52kg on her back, but she looks well in here with 57kg after the claim of Sam Clenton. We’re used to seeing Kathy O’Hara ride her but Coyle opted to use the apprentice and get in 2kg lighter. Quite simply, she is better than benchmark 78 level.
Dangers: Deity is on the seven day back up here and don’t be too critical on what she produced last week when favourite. Punters Intelligence reveals she had to spend too many carrots getting into the race from back in the field, running the fastest splits between the 600-200m but peaked on her run slightly late. Out to 1100m helps now. 1. Miss Exfactor has been found out at the end of 1200m races her past two starts. Back 100m is a big tick. The Notation form line is strong. How aggressive will Chris Williams be early? Gimcrack winner 6. Satin Slipper must still be showing the Snowden camp she wants to race but want to see her first up while also curious to see what former West Aussie speedster 5. Agent Pippa can produce for Kris Lees off a long break.
How to play it: Spiritual Pursuit WIN ($1.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Spiritual Pursuit winning well last start back to 1000m
|Race 6 - 2:30PM TAB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Here we go again I hear but not ready to give up on 11. Our Winnie just yet. This mare’s last two runs have been very good but given the hidden nature of them, we’re still getting a big price about her chances. First up her last 200m split was only bettered by the winner Asterius before second up her last 200m ranked on top when ninth behind Commander. Her last 600m of 35.03s was also the fastest in the race and by more than a length. The problem so far is that she has been giving away impossible starts. Drawn 2 and with senior jockey Glyn Schofield going on, hoping she can settle midfield. It’s only a field of 12 here too (having faced 15 or more rivals in her three runs prior). This is a very winnable race if everything goes to plan.
Dangers: The early TAB market is a curious one as it’s priced the race as if 10. No Escape’s win never happened. 12. Nicochet and 8. Love Shack Baby are still considerably shorter despite being well beaten on that occasion. No Escape has put two cracking efforts together in town now but has had the run of the race on both occasions. James Innes Jnr knows the horse well but will need to be on his game to slot in this week. He collared 6. Fuel there but Fuel meets him 2.5kg better and No Escape doesn’t map to be breathing down his neck this time. Fuel will be in this for a very long way. 3. Nahuel only rises from 1400m to 1500m second up and wants further, while the same can be said for 9. Cyber Intervention. Third up over further will be their go.
How to play it: Our Winnie WIN ($16 TAB Fixed Odds) and Fuel WIN ($8.50)
Fuel and No Escape fighting out the finish last start
|Race 7 - 3:10PM WINTER STAKES (1400 METRES)|
5. Gaulois struck a heavy track for the first time in over two years in the Civic Stakes and relished it. Rachel King commented how the four-year-old Godolphin gelding effortlessly skipped through the ground. Punters Intelligence backs that up with Gaulois clocking the fastest last 600m in the race (35.18s) and recording the fastest 400-200 and last 200m, just in front of renowned closers New Universe and 14. Nicci’s Gold. The son of Street Cry is such a versatile horse that he’ll be able to position himself a lot closer to the speed this time from the inside draw. That makes him even more dangerous having been forced to settle 10th last start from the wide draw. In fact it’s the first time this campaign he has drawn a soft gate, which brought about his undoing in Queensland early in his preparation. Surprised Gaulois isn’t shorter.
Dangers: Nicci’s Gold was unlucky not to finish closer in the Civic Stakes. She loves wet ground and looks to have returned in career best form. She is one dimensional in getting back but she’ll be weaving another passage late with any luck. 1. Stampede has run once in 16 months but it was a crushing win from the front. It was over the mile though and 10. Cradle Mountain will ensure this race will be run along. Both are control freaks so something has to give. 2. Eckstein will be hoping the speed will be hot enough to get home from last. 3. New Tipperary has an imposing second up record (7:4-1-0) but three of those wins were 1500m and beyond.
How to play it: Gaulois WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds)
Gaulois winning the Civic Stakes last start
|Race 8 - 3:50PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
1. Mahalangur has been seven weeks on the sidelines after pulling up lame at Randwick last start. Baffled as to why he has been overlooked by the market. The 1200m is short of his pet trip but the wet track certainly aids that obstacle. As does the barrier. Three kilo claimer Brock Ryan should find himself box seating without having to spend a penny early. There isn’t a stack of speed engaged so that plays right into his hands. If it’s any guide, first up last preparation he ran second to Star Of The Seas, the find of the winter, knocking up late after looming to win. Third up he beat subsequent Scone Cup winner Special Missile before running fifth (starting $6) in the Listed Luskin Star won by Trekking and Brave Song. Turns out that is Group One form! On class, as the #1 saddlecloth suggests, he has these covered.
Dangers: 14. River Bird hasn’t been devastating in her wins but it’s hard to be too critical of a winner. She has stuck her neck out when it counts, and rallied back when she was headed last start. Jumps again in grade (from BM78 to 88) but stays down in the weights because of it. Should be in the first dozen in a race without a stack of speed on paper. 3. Tonsor should lead with 12. Zonk afforded the opportunity to go back to her normal on pace position. 6. Almanzora moved into the Winter Dash first up like she was going to be thereabouts but faded late. Can only come on from that but the draw doesn’t help her.
How to play it: Mahalangur EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Mahalangur’s run at Scone two back
|Race 9 - 4:30PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
1. Drachenfels was forced to dive back to the inferior inside ground last start. His last 200m was a length slower than Traumitised (scratched here) but how much of that was due to being close to the fence? The enigmatic five-year-old finds Blake Shinn and although the draw looks ugly on paper, it’ll suit him. Might be playing to the wide draws later in the day too. He didn't have the best of luck in his two starts prior to that. Convinced he is flying and from the draw won't have any traffic issues, rushing down the outside with an uninterrupted passage. Handles the wet and is accustomed to carrying weight. This race has fallen away so he gets his chance.
Dangers: 7. Handle The Truth peaked on his run first up to be beaten 1.5L behind River Bird, which looks a prominent form reference for this race. That was a month ago but he can only improve off that and has trialled well since. He'll make his own luck and on the strength of his win over I Am A Cool Kid at Canterbury last campaign, he's hard to beat in this. Boasts a great strike rate and he still looks to have more to offer. 2. Thy Kingdom Come will be better over 1400m but can run well first up.
How to play it: Drachenfels WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Drachenfels' last start third