Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is out 3m the entire while the track is rated a Good 4. The first race on the card is set to jump at 12pm.
|Race 1 - 12:00PM GIRLS DAY OUT HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Godolphin forked out $600,000 for blueblood filly 3. Exhilarates. The two-year-old is by Snitzel out of Samaready. That is a serious pedigree for a youngster. That certainly doesn’t guarantee ability though, far from it, however I saw enough from her in the one trial at Randwick to suggest she can handle these. It’s only a field of five, and there doesn’t look to be a great deal of depth to it. Exhilarates showed great natural speed in her trial to sit outside of the leader and although the winner of the heat Crystal Falls looked to have her measure at the finish having slipped up the fence, she looked to still have a few gears in reserve.
Danger: 1. Sebrakate has already won two races hence the 59kg impost. Both were at Morphettville and although the winning margins don’t read to be dominant, the Sebring colt with Hayes and Dabernig was rather arrogant in the manner in which he won. He was dictated to in both starts, despite the small fields, waiting for a run. Godolphin stablemate 4. Kiamichi is a half to Ozark but unlike Exhilarates, was tardy away in her one trial. 2. Chia was sound on debut but gets the blinkers on for the first time. 5. Oh So Hot backs up after running a distant fourth to Time To Reign last Saturday.
How to play it: Exhilarates WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
Exhilarates trialling at Randwick – October 30
|Race 2 - 12:35PM 2019 MEMBERSHIP HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
7. Baller was unwanted on debut at Kembla Grange ($61) but towelled up his rivals, running them into the ground from the front. Punters Intel reveals the Anthony and Edward Cummings-trained colt did it both ends too, running 35.19s his first 600m before slipping home in 34.82s for the final 600m. Baller ran six lengths quicker on the day than Excelling in the Class 2, however, they crawled in front in that race. Still, there was plenty of merit in the win and being by High Chaparral, he’ll only improve out to 1400m here. Robbie Dolan takes the ride and can claim down to 49kg so Baller will carry just 49.5kg. He’ll roll along in front again and with the featherweight on his back, take running down.
Danger: 1. Royal Celebration is a colt I’ve got plenty of time for and he won with authority last time out at Randwick. Suspect you’ll see him go to another level again on a dry track. He’ll be tucked in behind the speed from barrier 3 and get his chance. He’ll be giving away 9.5kg to Baller but he is a classy three-year-old destined for bigger and better things than benchmark racing. 3. Coterie has won two on the bounce but want to oppose him at the odds. Confident if we back Baller and save Royal Celebration we’ll get a result.
How to play it: Baller WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Royal Celebration ($1.90)
Baller running his rivals ragged at Kembla
|Race 3 - 1:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
1. Potent Force hasn’t been sighted at the races in 84 weeks, having suffered a tendon injury. It was so long ago that James Cummings trained him at that point, before he took up the gig with Godolphin. The five-year-old now finds himself in the hands of Mack Griffith at Mudgee. The brother to Smart Missile has tuned up with three trials to have him as ready as he can be, and looked impressive in each of them. If he is just 80% the horse he was when we last saw him, he’ll beat these. Kicking off over 1400m and Griffith brining him to town certainly suggests that this Highway has been a long-range target. At his second ever start he went down narrowly to Comin’ Through, then should have beaten Intueri before winning easily at Canterbury. He’ll be ring rusty, no doubt, but the price looks luxurious for a horse of his quality.
Danger: 3. Seeblume was a dominant winner of a Highway last start, relishing the rise to 1500m. She drops back to 1400m but has been freshened since. Had a trial at Canberra and hit the line sweetly under very little riding. Shouldn’t be $11! There is very little obvious speed in the race which might leave 4. Sugar Dance to take up the running and dictate the race from the front. He was beaten fair and square at Bathurst last start but there was a sizable gap back to third. 7. Carillon is flying at the moment while obligatory mention to Matt Dunn’s runner 5. Tristan De Angel.
How to play it: Potent Force WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Potent Force’s latest trial at Bathurst – October 26
|Race 4 - 1:50PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
2. Sexy Eyes finds herself at the odds but it’s hard to see her not taking this out. This mare was brilliant winning last start and Punters Intel reveals it was as impressive on the clock as it was to the eye. Sexy Eyes ran home her last 600m in 34.44s which was six lengths faster than the next bets in the race. That included 11.18s from the 400-200 and 11.91s her last 200m. The overall time was 4L faster than Royal Celebration on the same day over 1400m and although 3L of that was in the first 600m there was still plenty of substance to this win. The way she won there, the 1500m should hold no fears nor does the prospect of a firmer track than the Soft 6 she encountered last start. Despite being a five-year-old suspect we’re still yet to see her absolute best.
Danger: 1. Karavali did enough first up over 1400m behind Mahalangur. She won second up last campaign out to 1600m. That was on a Good track too, so don’t fall into the trap of thinking she can only win when it’s wet. The weight is certainly a leveller though and there is no denying that she grows a leg at Randwick. She’s yet to replicate that form at Rosehill. 3. I Like It Easy had every chance last start behind Royal Celebration but is an honest front-runner. 5. Aurora Rose improved sharply in her second trial with the blinkers on.
How to play it: Sexy Eyes WIN ($1.45 TAB Fixed Odds)
Did you know Sexy Eyes' last 600m was SIX LENGTHS faster than the next best in the race last start?
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) November 7, 2018
|Race 5 - 2:30PM EDEN BRAE HOMES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Don’t skip over the name 10. Turnberry first up over 1400m thinking he wants a trip. His form actually suggests the opposite. Kris Lees gave the son of Snitzel the chance to get out over ground as a three-year-old but he never looked likely. A freshen after the Queensland Derby and back to the mile for the Grafton Guineas saw him back in the winners’ stall. His siblings Red Dynamite and Charge Missile were certainly more dynamic over the shorter trips too. Even over 1400m his record reads 3:1-1-1 and he has fired fresh in the past. Rachel King will be able to use the draw to have him parked in the first dozen. He is a big player in this, at big odds.
Danger: There was just half a length between 7. Chaussure, 9. Gitan and 12. Man Of Peace when the trio met last start. There was very little substance to the race on the clock compared to the other three 1400m races on the day (Punters Intel). However, Chaussure was first up off a long break and meets the other two better off at the weights. Staying at 1400m is a knock. He wanted every bit of the 1550m second up last preparation. Speaking of layoffs, 1. Gamblers’ Blues resumes after 44 weeks on the sidelines. He went close over the Rosehill 1400m first up last campaign. Market watch with him. 4. Reflectivity not without a chance either.
How to play it: Turnberry EACH WAY ($23 TAB Fixed Odds)
Turnberry winning the Grafton Guineas last start
|Race 6 - 3:10PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
1. Sky Boy is airborne at the moment for Anthony and Ed Cummings. The four-year-old can quicken from on top of the speed which makes him so hard to beat at this level. He rises 2.5kg but on the dominance of his last start victory, that shouldn’t stop him again in BM78 company. Punters Intel reveals that Sky Boy’s last 600m (35.49s) was the second quickest in the race, only better by Savacool who flashed down the outside from near last. The time was only a length inferior to Savacool’s too, and that mare has since won at Flemington. This son of Pendragon is clearly thriving on his racing at the moment and only has to hold his form to win again.
Danger: 13. Highway snuck under the TAB’s guards here, although the price is tumbling now. The four-year-old mare was completely unsuited dropping back to 1400m third up having run over 1550m second up on the Kenso. She did her best work late there, behind Sexy Eyes who ran dominant closing splits. Out to 2000m fourth up, she’ll bounce back quickly. The last time she tackled 2000m she was beaten 3L by Youngstar in The Roses at Doomben! 5. Mark Two and 6. Mazaz both flopped last start but were found to be lame. Forget those efforts.
How to play it: Sky Boy WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds) and QUINELLA with Highway
Sky Boy beating Savacool last time out
|Race 7 - 3:50PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
We’ll see a completely different 6. Dyslexic this week, that much I’m sure of. Her wheels spun in the wet in the G3 Nivison first up and despite never being comfortable, still managed to finish midfield. The four-year-old was heavily backed too. Her Rosehill trial prior to the Nivison, where Resin ran lengths faster time than Diplomatico on the day, was outstanding in towing Tommy Berry to the line. The daughter of Foxwedge was only beaten a lip by Moss Trip in the G3 James Carr, which is indicative of her quality. The three weeks between runs is perfect ahead of this second up assignment. The scratching of The Pharoah leaves no speed in the race but tipping she can still overcome that.
Danger: Underestimate 3. Tip Top at your peril. The six-year-old has won two straight, accounting for the likes of Gem Song and Fierce Impact, and has won two from two after mid-preparation freshen ups which is the scenario he faces here. He wasn’t asked to do much in a Randwick trial to keep his engine ticking over. Imagine he’ll be in the first couple given the lack of an obvious leader. Have been with 4. Coruscate his last couple but he might be starting to find his level so looks vulnerable as favourite. That said, he could lead this field now being hard fit and be hard peg back.
How to play it: Dyslexic WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Dyslexic running midfield in the Nivison first up
|Race 8 - 4:30PM OH NO DARREN THE BIG FIVE OH SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
10. Leogang’s two runs back this time in have had a lot more merit than the finishing positions suggest. First up, with no official trial he was stuck on the inside ground on a Heavy Randwick track when the Godolphin quinella came right down the outside fence. Second up he was caught in no man’s land from the get-go, back and wide without any cover. Punters Intel reveals he ran the quickest 600-400m in the race (10.72s), matched it with the winner Single Bullet from the 400-200m (10.94s) before falling into a hole the last 200m. Like the booking of Jean Van Overmeire claiming 2kg and getting back onto a good track will only enhance his claims too. Ready to fire now third up.
Danger: 8. Sedition was afforded every possible opportunity at Canterbury first up but failed to hold off Deft at the finish. He is such an honest horse and has only finished outside of the top two on one occasion in his seven runs for Richard Litt, and that was at the end of a long preparation. He’ll strip fitter second up and draws to get a lovely run again here. 11. Rockin’ Ruga went like he was shot out of a cannon in his latest Randwick trial. Hasn’t been sighted for 36 weeks at the races but beat Condor in his maiden and has had excuses since (heat stress and then lame). If the real 2. Chauffeur turns up he’d blow these away. That’s a mighty ‘if’ though.
How to play it: Leogang EACH WAY ($14 TAB Fixed Odds) and Sedition WIN ($5)
Leogang’s last start effort at Randwick
|Race 9 - 5:20PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB AFTER PARTY SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
There will be no loafing in this race which plays right into the hands of 1. Smart Amelia . The mare was dynamite winning first up last preparation settling back behind a good speed over 1100m at Rosehill before zipping past her rivals in a final 600m of 33.86s (Punters Intel). That was a BM81. This is a BM78, at the same track and trip, and she’ll carry just 1kg more after the 2kg claim of Sam Weatherley. That was the second career win of the five-year-old despite having promised so much with a number of other trainers. She is three-time Group placed though. Looks to be by design that Bjorn Baker-trained hasn’t trialled her, in order to keep her really fresh. Will be ripping home late at double figure odds. She is in foal but doubt that’ll stop her.
Danger: Seasons has been scratched and not surprisingly given speedsters 2. Brook Magic and Absolute Ripper were drawn to her immediate inside, with 3. Goldfinch drawn 2. They'll fly in this. 10. Montrachet won well at Rosehill first up last time in maiden grade in before being deep ended in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas. It suggests the Hawkes stable have a very good opinion of this lightly-raced four-year-old. The speed up front suits. 11. Cant Find Snippy not the worst at odds.
How to play it: Smart Amelia EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Smart Amelia winning first up last preparation