By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.
The rail is in in the True and the form has been done for a soft track.
|Race 1 - 12:35PM CATANACHS HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
4. Great House loomed as the winner a fortnight ago at Randwick but peaked on the run, that was after relishing the hot speed on his Australian debut. The excuse for the four-year-old import was that he was four weeks between runs and had to make a sustained sprint from the tail of the field having drawn wide. Punters Intelligence highlights that further with Great House clocking what were clearly the fastest 600-400 and 400-200 splits in the race. Chris Waller has thrown the blinkers on at his third run in. The other thing to note is the drop back in grade from BM88 company to BM78. It sees him jump up in the weights from 53kg to 58kg but he’ll settle closer from the draw and comes up an SP of $2.50 in a harder race. Should beat these.
Dangers: 1. Kiss The Bride was well beaten by Great House last start through that same form line and is forced to lump 61.kg but he can float in and out of form so it’d no huge surprise to see him bounce back. The same can be said for 13. Jungle Book. He was horrible at Warwick Farm last start with Jason Collett suggesting that he failed to stay 2200m. Perhaps, but he was simply too bad to be true. Had been racing as well as ever prior to that and gets weight relief coming into this. Not sure why there is such a huge price discrepancy between 7. Toscanini and 8. Picaro. 6. Welsh Legend can only run well too.
How to play it: Great House WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Great House last start at Randwick
|Race 2 - 1:10PM CERRONE MAGIC NIGHT STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Prepared to take the gamble on 6. Latino Blend . It’s not the most conventional path into a Magic Night Stakes, via a 900m Newcastle maiden but the Hinchinbrook filly trained by Peter and Paul Snowden blew her rivals away. Amongst those were subsequent Wednesday winner Athelric a colt that had previously run fourth to Stay Inside in the Pierro Plate and Glittery, a filly that ran a luckless eighth behind Hilal on debut on the Kensington track. The market has cornered the Sweet Embrace as the right form line but the concern is that the four main chances from the race all finished in a bunch. It provides enough temptation to look outside of the obvious and find a filly from left field that could measure up. Especially given that the Golden Slipper looks a ‘colts year’.
Dangers: 7. Centro Storico defied her triple figure odds to run just as well as 4. Robodira and 5. Jamaea in the Sweet Embrace last start. The plus for Robodira is the she was first up and maps to get on speed favours. Outside of that, you are left with assessing what happened to 2. Arcaded last start in the Blue Diamond where she was eased out of the contest only for the stewards to find no abnormalities. Her win prior to that was solid, but the margin flattered her. 1. Queen of Wizardry brings Magic Millions form.
How to play it: Latino Blend EACH WAY ($13 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Latino Blend on debut at Newcastle
|Race 3 - 1:45PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE PAGO PAGO STAKES (1200 METRES)|
2. Ingratiating beat home subsequent Todman Stakes winner Anamoe when finishing second in the G1 Blue Diamond behind Artorius. Those are two of the strongest two-year-old references you can get this season. Prior to that the son of Frosted had run second to Enthaar at Caulfield before scoring a tradesman like win in the Listed Talindert. The query is how comfortable he’ll be if it’s a rain affected Rosehill track as all five of his career runs have so far been on firm tracks. A quick dig into his pedigree reveals that all of his siblings have handled the wet in the past including his speedy half-brother Deference. Curiously, the blinkers come off for the first time despite coming off a peak run but it worked for Anamoe last start…
Dangers: Despite running fifth, thought 5. Tiger Of Malay produced what was just about the run of the race in the Silver Slipper Stakes last start. Like the way he picked himself up to still hit the line despite the hip and shoulder he copped in the straight. It was a meeting where being rails in run was a distinct advantage too. Blinkers go on for the first time. 6. Hilal was never catching O’President the way the Skyline was run but he cut the margin back to 1.3L in the end. Might be more of a Sires type, and the draw will see him get back in the run, but he is loaded with talent.
How to play it: Ingratiating WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
|Race 4 - 2:20PM BISLEY WORKWEAR SKY HIGH STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Unless all of the forecasted rain happened to miss Rosehill, it’s hard to knock odds on favourite 4. Colette. The case for this four-year-old mare, who resumed a dominant winner of the G2 Apollo Stakes first up before being edged out by Verry Elleegant in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes, makes itself. She drops back from weight-for-age form against horses a couple of pegs better than what she meets here. Third up out to 2000m looks a perfect progression for her preparation, Rachel King showed last start that she isn’t afraid of giving the Oaks and Golden Eagle winner an early dig to take up a spot and we know what her record is like on wet tracks. In case you’ve forgotten, on soft and heavy ground her record reads 6:5-1-0 and she was half a head away from making that a perfect six last start.
Dangers: 6. Spirit Ridge ended last preparation with a Group Three and Listed win and like the way he has trialled this time back, suggesting he can make another leap forward to measure up at this level. 5. Toffee Tongue hasn’t looked likely in her first and second up runs but she improved sharply third up out to 2000m over the spring to give star stablemate Verry Elleegant a fright in the Turnbull. Ran a couple of distant seconds to Collette as a three-year-old. 7. Mustajeer drops 5kg from his first up fourth and raced well on wet tracks last autumn. He ran second to Master Of Wine in this very race 12 months ago on a bottomless track.
How to play it: Colette WIN ($1.65 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Collette last start in the Chipping Norton
|Race 5 - 2:55PM CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB MAURICE McCARTEN STAKES (1100 METRES)|
Love the placement of 9. Wandabaa with 53.kg on her back and presumably, on her favoured wet ground. The four-year-old is one of the most consistent mares in training winning seven of her eighteen starts placing in a further eight. She ripped through the grades last campaign starting off with a BM70 win over Spaceboy before mixing it with the likes of Savatiano, Asiago and All Saints Eve in Group company. The daughter of Wandjina handles all surfaces but her strike rate on soft and heavy ground (8:4-2-1) is better again. She should have won the Nivison over the spring too, when a luckless second to Positive Peace. Wandabaa has trialled twice this time back, winning both heats, and she looked very sharp in the latest of those zipping clear of Mugatoo.
Dangers: 5. California Zimbol split Villami and Pandemic first up last preparation before knocking off Fituese in Melbourne. Has handled soft tracks fine in the past but has to be a query on anything worse given she finished last at her only try on heavy. 6. Albumin races well at his home track and will appreciate getting back onto a dry surface. 8. Super will be doing his best work late having caught the eye first up over a trip well short of his best.
How to play it: Wandabaa WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Wandabaa's latest Gosford trial
|Race 6 - 3:35PM CHANDON PHAR LAP STAKES (1500 METRES)|
You only have to watch the replay of 9. Impecunious in the Armanasco Stakes over 1400m at Caulfield three weeks ago to know that this former Kiwi should have won. She should be three wins from four starts. There was plenty to like about the way she put her rivals away at Caulfield on her Australian debut prior to that. Co-trainer Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young travel the filly knowing she handles all surfaces too. At her second race start in New Zealand the daughter of Sacred Falls put her rivals to the sword on heavy ground. That was over 1000m and just her second career start. On debut she savaged the line over 800m. With her breeding, the 1500m on a likely wet surface sets up perfectly. Beautifully placed.
Dangers: 1. Poland is very well treated under the set weights conditions given his 90 rating being a last start Group Two winner. That flagged that the son of So You Think has returned a better horse this time back. 2. Embolism ran fourth in the Australian Guineas last start with those form lines tying into Mo’unga, who we saw run so well in last Saturday’s Randwick Guineas. Poland beat him home last preparation at Flemington but a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then so it mightn’t be as clear cut as that. Chris Waller has trained the past four winners of this race, and five of the past six, so over to you 6. Hungry Heart.
How to play it: Impecunious WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
|Race 7 - 4:15PM COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500 METRES)|
11. All Saints’ Eve produced a hidden first up run that was much better than it looked to the eye. Criaderas flashed home taking the attention off this four-year-old’s third in the Liverpool City Cup but it was only Criaderas that clocked a faster closing last 600m than All Saints’ Eve across the entire meeting. John O’Shea has been very deliberate about targeting this race second up too with the daughter of Sacred Falls blowing her rivals away in the Tibbie Stakes at her second run back last preparation. She handles all conditions, draws favourouble and could give Brenton Avdulla and O’Shea their second Group One in as many weeks. The last six winners of this race have paid $16 or higher and looking at the make up of this field, it’s on the cards again this year.
Dangers: 9. Forbidden Love sprinted brilliantly to put three lengths on her rivals in the Surround Stakes. Three-year-old fillies had a strong record in this race in the 1990s and 2000s but Typhoon Tracy is 2009 is the last one to win it. The handicapper hasn’t missed her with 54.5kg. 18. Vangelic was well beaten by Forbidden Love a fortnight ago but she was wide the trip and drops to 50kg. That makes her dangerous. 3. Krone, 12. Tricky Gal and 6. Icebath all clashed in the Guy Walter with Krone a runaway victor. Tricky Gal is the best treated at the weights of the trio while Icebath comes into contention if it’s a genuine heavy track. 5. Subpoenaed and 13. Emeralds both at least warrant mentions.
How to play it: All Saints’ Eve EACH WAY ($12 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
All Saints’ Eve first up
|Race 8 - 5:00PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS AJAX STAKES (1500 METRES)|
7. Buffalo River went way too fast in front last start in the G2 Blamey Stakes and the inside proved to be the worst ground at Caulfield. Star Of The Seas knocked him off but he was entitled to have been beaten by further. Not only does the Mike Moroney-trained gelding bring a strong SP from that race, where he jumped $2.70 favourite, he loves the sting out of the ground and makes his own luck. Outside of 3. Greyworm , there doesn’t look to be much pressure. The front-running five-year-old is 8:5-2-1 on soft and heavy tracks. James McDonald does the steering and he’ll know that if he can pinch any kind of mid-race breather before producing a sprint, it’ll make the task facing 11. Criaderas all that much harder.
Dangers: The knock isn’t on the talent that Criaderas possesses. That’s undeniable. It’s his horrible racing style. Can he settle closer from barrier 1? His first up run was impossible to miss, with Punters Intelligence revealing his last 600m of 33.07s was not only three lengths faster than the next best in the race but also across the entire meeting. The drier the better. 1. Mister Sea Wolf is often overlooked by the market and liked the way he finished off in the latest of his three trials. The likes of 4. Think It Over, 6. Rock and 10. Looks Like Elvis all fit into a race like this well but suspect they’ve all reached their mark. Monitor any market support for import classy import 2. Plumatic .
How to play it: Buffalo River WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
|Race 9 - 5:40PM CELLARBRATIONS HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
9. Nudge profiles as a great roughie in an open race. The four-year-old has only won twice in 14 starts but in her defence, seven of her last 10 starts have been in Group races. Her fresh runs have all been good too and a little hidden. First up last preparation she chased home Prime Candidate in a very slowly run race, with Wandabaa running second. The campaign prior to that she speared him behind Positive Peace and Subpoenaed first up. That was another on speed dominated race. Nudge handles all surfaces so whatever Rosehill throws up come Saturday it won’t worry her and like that James McDonald stays aboard having ridden her in both trials this time back. If the speed is on, look for her screaming home.
Dangers: 6. Starspangled Rodeo went straight to the front last start and appeared to relish that role with Josh Parr cranking it up from the 800m home. 8. Lina’s Hero was caught back and wide first up in the same race as Bound To Win (scratched). There was plenty of merit in the run. 12. Zakat looked to get his chance to finish closer last start but steps up in trip now and gets the winkers on. 1. Yao Dash is the class runner but is lumped with 60kg because of that. A couple of on scratchings look to help his cause in getting across from the wide draw to find the front.
How to play it: Nudge EACH WAY ($14 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Nudge first up last preperation