By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick.
The rail is out 6m from the 1000m to the winning post and 4m the remainder. The form has been done for a good track.
|Race 1 - 11:55AM VALE NEVILLE LAYT HIGHWAY (1200 METRES)|
Taking the punt that Stephen Jones has 2. Mr Wong ready to go first up after a year on the sidelines. In his past two previous campaigns the five-year-old has resumed off 31 week and 24 week breaks to gap his rivals upon his return. The first of those was at Muswellbrook in a Class 1, so he was entitled to, but the latest was in a Highway over 1100m. He finished the preparation in BM70 and BM78 races against handy opposition. The son of Mossman won a Scone barrier trial recently, beating Bright Rubick, suggesting that he has returned well. It’s a leap of faith but the big price makes it too tempting of a gamble particularly given the gelding’s first up record and the manner in which he trialled.
Dangers: 4. More Sundays produced a devastating sprint to win at Tamworth first up. It was a blanket finish but given the shape of the race, he wasn’t entitled to win. Happy to blame the wet track for his subsequent failure at Muswellbrook where all of the well fancied runners in the race ran below market expectations. 12. Ceasefire has won two from two and has an eight length combined winning margin. Jumps in class and is untried beyond 1000m but he can’t have done much more to begin his career. 11. Ahead Start is also lightly-raced and Danny Williams has managed to snare James McDonald. He resumed with a dominant first up win which sets him up well for this second up.
How to play it: Mr Wong EACH WAY ($14 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Mr Wong’s recent Scone barrier trial
|Race 2 - 12:35PM MOSTYN COPPER J H B CARR STAKES (1400 METRES)|
4. Geist has been up for a long time but she continues to race well. She is so much better than her record suggests, winning just twice from 14 starts. Three back at Gosford she never got a crack late with her regular rider attempting to find the best ground on the inside at Gosford. That was before producing two massive finishes at Kembla Grange and then Randwick in the PJ Bell Stakes behind 1. Matchmaker. Her racing style is what has cost her a higher winning strike rate but she won’t have to spot the leaders 10 lengths this time in a field of just eight runners. The daughter of Medaglia D’Oro is untried at 1400m but her late strength over 1200m suggests she’ll relish it. She was the only runner in the race to break 12s home for her last 200m last start.
Dangers: The progression out in trip gives 1. Matchmaker the opportunity to go back-to-back and James McDonald sticks. No knock on her chances. 2. Kiku has produced a brilliant turn of foot to win three in a row this time back, the latest of those against the boys in the Carbine Club Stakes. The little query is coming back from the mile to 1400m. It’s an even bigger distance drop for 3. Elizabeel, back from the 2000m of the G1 Vinery. Maps to lead and potentially get some sort of control, however. She was G1 placed at this track and trip three starts ago in the Surround.
How to play it: Geist WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Matchmaker and Geist last start at Randwick
|Race 3 - 1:10PM ACY SECURITIES FRANK PACKER PLATE (2000 METRES)|
3. High Supremacy has a strong profile for this particular race. It isn’t an afterthought like it is for most of his rivals and looking at recent winners of the Frank Packer Plate such as Kinane, He’s Our Rokki and Hi World, he fits into that same bucket. An up-and-comer getting out to 2000m with the speed still in his legs. He should have won the Carbine last start over the mile if not for being held up, finishing fourth to Kiku and The Irishman. That race has historically been a very strong pointer for this 2000m feature. James McDonald doesn’t make the same mistake twice so he’ll be motivated to avenge that defeat and drawn barrier 2, gets his chance to put the son of Savabeel into a another midfield position. If he gets the splits, his turn of foot will win it for him.
Dangers: 1. Lion’s Roar is the best weighted horse across the entire Randwick meeting. Being a Group One winner of the Randwick Guineas his 104 benchmark dwarfs the second highest rated runner 2. Khoekhoe yet he meets them all on level weights. The Chosen One came out of the Derby to win this race a couple of years ago. Khoekhoe travelled sweetly in the Derby for Craig Williams but he didn’t let down. Perhaps he isn’t appreciating being left in front so far from home, which is what has faced him in his last two starts. A quite ride could be on the cards but there isn’t a clear cut leader to hand up to.
How to play it: High Supremacy WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
High Supremacy in the Carbine Club last start
|Race 4 - 1:45PM SHARP EXTENSIVE IT JRA PLATE (2000 METRES)|
The only thing that doesn’t excite me about seeing 1. Zaaki again is the price. The six-year-old import ran an eye-catching sixth in the G1 Doncaster Mile from last, ducking and weaving his way through the field. The wide draw dictated his settling position. In his two Australian trials he showed speed to be handy, even leading in one of them. His work through the line suggests that 2000m is a perfect progression second up. Punters Intelligence reveals that Zaaki clocked the fastest last 200m in the Doncaster (11.87s), marginally ahead of the winner Cascadian (11.88s). He has already won two Group Threes and has obviously acclimatised to Annabel Neasham’s set up very quickly. That bodes well for his future.
Dangers: 5. Entente maps to get control in front. Tim Clark won’t hand up the front this time as he did to Shared Ambition last start. The four-year-old will pinch it if he isn’t given enough respect. 2. Hang Man is in career-best form coming off a last start win over Persan. The third placed Mahamedeis has since franked that form line by winning himself. He gets back so the wide draw won’t change much as far as his pattern goes. 6. Grey Lion is hard to catch but his first up ninth was much better than it reads on paper. 8. Zeyrek could improve sharply 1400m out to 2000m while 10. Paths Of Glory is ticking over well this time back, but drops back in trip.
How to play it: Zaaki WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Zaaki in the G1 Doncaster Mile last start
|Race 5 - 2:20PM TAB HALL MARK STAKES (1200 METRES)|
3. Deprive showed a spark of his best form last start in the Star Kingdom, which looks a key form reference for this. The six-year-old was jagged back to last from the wide draw but speared through the middle of the pack, running out of room late. He was only beaten by two lengths despite Rachel King throttling down over the last 50m. Looking over his recent run of form, which is a touch down on what he had produced in the past, a number of failures can be blamed on wet tracks. His runs on top of the ground have been terrific, including a third behind Libertini and Classique Legend over this same track and trip late last year. Talent-wise, there isn’t as much between Deprive and 5. Signore Fox as the market suggests.
Dangers: Signore Fox has beaten Deprive home the last two times they have clashed, but still trails 3-2 head to head. Has won nine from 31 starts but only once has he strung two wins together. There’s no knock on his talent, he can just be a touch enigmatic. 1. Victorem pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia the last time he raced so forget that. 8. Eleven Eleven held his own in the TJ Smith first up. He historically takes a run to find winning form too. He’s well found though. 4. Roheryn comes through the Star Kingdom as well and can't be discounted.
How to play it: Deprive EACY WAY ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Deprive was luckless last start
|Race 6 - 2:55PM MOËT & CHANDON CHAMPAGNE STAKES (1600 METRES)|
2. Hilal’s last 600m split in the Inglis’ Sires was equal to that of Anamoe. They both clocked 35.93s. That was nearly two lengths faster than the third quickest, which was 1. Captivant. As far as a form reference goes, it trumps anything else these two year olds bring to the table. Unsurprisingly, 25 of the past 30 winners of the Champagne Stakes came via the Sires. The son of Fastnet Rock burst onto the scene with a brilliant win over 1100m on debut before being a victim of a slowly run race in the G2 Skyline and then getting a long way back in the G3 Pago Pago where the pace slackened in the middle stages. He is yet to run a bad race and from a perfect draw, he profiles like the winner of this year’s Champagne.
Dangers: Using the logic to confidently label Hilal as one of the best bets across the meeting, Captivant has to be the biggest threat, especially on a good track which he hasn’t seen since winning on debut. That was over 1000m at Randwick. Hilal has a 2-0 verdict over Captivant from their two clashes, but both were on soft tracks. Captivant didn’t have much luck in the Golden Slipper, despite running fifth, which shows his quality. 14. Gin Martini was flattered by the rails run in the Baillieu but she’ll only get stronger as she gets out over further given she profiles like an Oaks filly for next season, and 3. Converge has franked the form by winning last Saturday’s Fernhill. Of the five winners of the Champagne that didn’t come through the Sires’, three were via the Fernhill.
"Has threatened to win a big race all autumn and this is his chance."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) April 22, 2021
How to play it: Hilal WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
|Race 7 - 3:35PM SCHWEPPES ALL AGED STAKES (1400 METRES)|
All being equal, 2. Masked Crusader wins. Rarely is anything that straight forward with this horse, though. This has been the preparation that the four-year-old has delivered on the promise he has always teased winning his maiden Group One in the William Reid, which was only his second crack at the top level. Prior to that a slow getaway proved costly behind 10. Savatiano in the Canterbury Stakes. That has been his Achilles heel. The slow start. Typically if he jumps well he goes forward but his recent gate speed suggests he’s likely to find himself out the back from the wide draw. That’s a worrisome scenario but his last start second in the TJ Smith screamed All Aged and the TJ has produced the last five winners of this race.
Dangers: 9. I Am Superman gets a lot in his favour here. Firstly is the all-important dry track. He also draws a lovely gate to tuck in behind the speed. The five-year-old’s Ajax win over Think It Over looks a strong reference now. I Am Superman has trialled sweetly since too. Savatiano has won three on the bounce with the gap between runs working well for her. Only has to hold her form to be in the finish again. 3. Zoutori ran on well late in the TJ Smith last start and maps to be much closer in this. Then there’s 1. Kolding, 4. Dreamforce, 7. Imaging and the Doncaster winner 5. Cascadian. Deep race.
How to play it: Masked Crusader WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Masked Crusader in the TJ Smith
|Race 8 - 4:15PM YARRAMAN PARK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
14. Nudge is flying. Both first and second up she has run in races where one-two turning for home have fought out the finish. The warning that comes with backing her is that there is a reason that she has won two from 16. That said, she should settle closer from the low draw, has just 52kg on her back and with the breaks, she looks the horse to beat in this.
Dangers: 4. Bottega kept finding the line in the Doncaster Prelude last start with the query being whether he wants a mile now. 1. Archedemus is best when he’s aggressively ridden and the wide draw ensures that. Thought he boxed on bravely first up when entitled to be beaten by further. He rallied again late. 9. Starspangled Rodeo is racing in career best form finishing in the quinella in his last five starts. Big watch on French import 13. Arapaho after an impressive trial win.
How to play it: Nudge WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
|Race 9 - 4:55PM FUJITSU GENERAL SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
12. Salina Dreaming resumed with dominant win at Warwick Farm in what was a deep midweeker. The third placed Rainbow Connection went on to place in a Listed race at Randwick last Saturday while the fifth placed Belluci Babe has won since. She beat them all by three lengths with her head on her chest. The writing is on the wall that this Angela Davies-trained mare will be knocking around in black type races herself before too long. Last preparation she took the scalp of The Face. Her record of 9:5-1-2 is impressive on its own but she is undefeated on tracks soft or better. That’s five from five without her four heavy track runs. The four-year-old drops from 59.5kg to 53.5kg getting 5kg off the likes of 2. Lost And Running and 1. Enchanted Heart.
Dangers: Lost And Running wasn’t left with any excuses after having his unbeaten run ended by Enchanted Heart. She meets him 1.5kg better off too, despite beating him last time. He did jump $1.60 favourite while she started $21 so he brings a strong SP profile hence the market respect again here. 9. Surreal Step resumed in the Silver Eagle last preparation. This is more his level. He’s honest and will make his own luck. He’s the type that’s easy to overlook. 15. More Prophets hasn’t finished outside of the top three in eight career runs. Expect her to sprint well fresh again. 10. Lucicello is the sleeper. She should be fit enough now third up off a lengthy period on the sidelines and gets onto a good track.
How to play it: Salina Dreaming WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Salina Dreaming winning at Warwick Farm last start