Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Inglis Villiers Stakes day at Royal Randwick on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is in the True with the track currently rated in the Good range.
|Race 1 - 12:40PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Awesome Pluck still has some maturing to do but he’s a talent, no doubt about that. Belted his rivals on debut at Taree before boxing on bravely behind Manicure at Warwick Farm despite being posted throughout. There doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed in the race outside of Boyish punching through to hold the front from the inside so despite early suggestions that connections are keen to see Awesome Pluck get cover, there’s every chance he pulls himself to sit outside of the leader by default. Hard to beat from there if that’s the case.
Danger: Calculated isn’t a 1100m horse but his class will take him a long way in this race. Boasts a narrow second to Siege Of Quebec over 1400m. He maps to be in the perfect trailing spot if he is sharp enough although have seen him trial better. Purely on class it looks a race in two. Boyish will give cheek given the likely slow tempo.
How to play it: Awesome Pluck WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Awesome Pluck’s recent Rosehill trial – Dec 8
|Race 2 - 1:20PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
Wouldn’t be on my own in having Victorem as being one to watch after his three starts to date but what really sealed the deal was a recent trial behind Music Magnate where he cruised to the line under no urgings at all from his regular rider Ben Looker. He should be undefeated. Bucked 50m after the start on debut and somehow managed to find his feet again and finish fourth. It was an extraordinary run. Since then he has bolted in at Kempsey and then beat Runaway who is a very handy horse himself and he did it despite sitting wide the trip. He is a very talented animal and only bad luck beats him in this Highway Handicap. Take the even money while it’s still there.
Danger: All Stand lost his way a little but found his best again at Cessnock last start off a five week freshen. He did so with a showing of sustained speed over the 900m. Perhaps connections apply similar tactics here and try to get Victorem chasing early. Takookacod had no luck at all in a Highway last start.
How to play it: Victorem WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds)
Victorem’s Rosehill trial behind Music Magnate – Dec 8
|Race 3 - 1:55PM CHRISTMAS CUP (2400 METRES)|
Broadside is $1.70 and rightly so. Asserted his class in the ATC Cup, booting clear to win by two lengths at the finish. He goes on all surfaces so should have little trouble transferring that wet track form back onto firmer ground. The handicappers haven’t missed him with 59kg but he looks to have a clear edge on his rivals. You only have to look at the horses next in the market – Vassal and Prince Cheri – to put in perspective how well placed he is in this year’s edition of the Christmas Cup.
Danger: Green Sweet has some six lengths to make up on Broadside but he looked in need of the run their first up and second up last time in he won the Albury Cup in good style. This is his first try beyond 2000m but he gives the impression he’ll run it out. He can close the gap on Broadside. Prince Cheri hasn’t won for four years but is getting closer!
How to play it: Broadside WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Broadside winning the ATC Cup
|Race 4 - 2:30PM INGLIS NURSERY (1000 METRES)|
Miss Invincible showed lightning gate speed in her debut a fortnight ago to take up the running. Punters' Intel reveals she produced a 7.99s early split! She was collared only late by Perfect Pitch over the 1100m. Back to 1000m and with that run under her belt she is going to take some pegging back. Would expect her to offset her wide barrier quickly before being let run along by Jason Collett. Has the tendency to overdo it a little but with the $500,000 carrot of the Inglis Nursery in front of them, this isn’t the time to try and teach her new tricks. Run like the wind, girl!
Danger: Irish Bet, for John O’Shea, won his trial well. Liked the response Brenton Avdulla got when he asked for an effort and he sticks with the colt for his debut. Bred for two-year-old speed. Outside of that, Canyonero was another that caught the eye at the trials and should get every chance from the middle draw.
How to play it: Miss Invincible WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Miss Invincible giving a big sight on debut
|Race 5 - 3:05PM CATANACH'S HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
The $9 TAB Fixed Odds are betting about Machinegun Jubs is generous. This Angela Davies-trained mare beat In Times Of War two starts back and that horse is rated a $4.40 chance here. There is a weight swing of 2.5kg but it’s hardly enough to warrant that big of a price discrepancy. Machinegun Jubs has since run fifth on a heavy track which, as she has shown in the past, is a surface she isn’t overly fond of. She’ll bounce back on top of the ground and from the cosy inside draw. Take the early price each way.
Danger: Sugar Bella jumps a few grades but she couldn’t have been any more visually impressive than she was at Canterbury first up. Queries being the quality of her opposition and her slow time on the night. She’s still untapped though. In Times Of War is always thereabouts but rarely wins. Tipping that same story to continue to play out here.
How to play it: Machinegun Jubs EACH WAY ($9 TAB Fixed Odds)
Machinegun Jubs beating In Times Of War two back
|Race 6 - 3:40PM RIGHT2DRIVE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
You’d be brave to tip against Sedanzer given the form she is this campaign. This Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained mare is starting to creep up in the weights now having won five of her 11 starts but she’s still got another benchmark win in her before she tackles Stakes grade. Rachel King knows her very well, and even rides her in trackwork. She will have her stalking the speed again before unleashing a turn of foot her rivals find very hard to match, including Dreamforce. TAB are dangling the carrot at $3.30. Good price and should be winning again.
Danger: Dreamforce has drawn wide but shouldn’t have too much trouble getting to the front before backing off. When assessing Dreamforce we can take a line through Redouble, which sees Sedanzer certainly come out on top. He is still a clear second pick though. Big watch on Chatelard resuming over the mile. Knows how to win and did it all in his first preparation.
How to play it: Sedanzer WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
Sedanzer’s last start Rosehill win
|Race 7 - 4:20PM INGLIS VILLIERS STAKES (1600 METRES)|
Mister Sea Wolf is an untapped import who has hit the ground running in Australia for Chris Waller. He ran a fast-finishing second in the Festival Stakes and when these imports acclimitze from the get-go it’s generally a strong pointer towards their future. He can only improve from the outing too, as we so often see. He might need some luck from the gate but in Kerrin McEvoy we trust. Would like to see positive tactics from the outset as there is enough speed drawn out to suggest they might string out and leave a spot for McEvoy to camp in behind the first few.
Danger: There is no denying that Interlocuter is a smart animal. He’s had a faultless preparation leading into this. Has been kept fresh since winning over 1900m and dropping back to the mile actually looks in his favour. He has been beautifully placed by James Cummings. Query is he hasn’t been beating much. We’ll get a much better idea of where he fits into the picture after this. Cabeza De Vaca could be a big improver back on a dry deck. Catch me if you can and Gai over the Randwick mile…
How to play it: Mister Sea Wolf WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Mister Sea Wolf’s Aussie debut in the Festival Stakes
|Race 8 - 5:00PM RAZOR SHARP HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Sir Plush on top. Bjorn Baker backed off him after his fourth at Randwick. He was five weeks between runs prior to the Starlight and despite never looking comfortable in the heavy conditions, ran very well. The race, won by stablemate Egyptian Symbol, rates highly. His two most recent wins have been when he has been allowed to coast along in front. Would expect Chetwood to assume that role here but it sets up well for Sir Plush if Jason Collett is positive early and can get a drag up into the straight. Big chance at the $10 in an open race.
Danger: Palazzo Pubblico historically flies off these little four week freshens. She was very good in the Mumm Stakes running the best closing splits in the race behind Ball Of Muscle. Has since trialled nicely and with 53.5kg she’ll be rattling home. Leave Isorich out at your peril. Also ran super in the Stralight and is better suited on firmer going. Calanda and I Thought So next best but keener to play others at the odds.
How to play it: Sir Plush WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Look for the runs of Sir Plush and Isorich in the Starlight Stakes
|Race 9 - 5:40PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Redouble has been so consistent since being gelded and finding a new home out at Warwick Farm with Bjorn Baker. In his only blemish he pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia. We can forgive him last start when he ran fourth in a harder race than this behind Sedanzer. He sat outside the leader and boxed away. He is a much better chaser, as we saw the start prior to that when he ran down Flow despite a wide run throughout. Really pinned the ears back on that occasion. This horse has been well supported in each of his starts this campaign so would expect the same again come Saturday.
Danger: Powerline produced a fantastic effort last start closer to the inside which wasn’t the place to be on a deteriorating Rosehill track. He maps to be close enough if good enough and peaks now third up. Think he can turn the tables on Uptown Lad and Level Eight. Starting to wonder how genuine Malaise is but he can only improve off his first up second, having recently been gelded. The Pharoah leads on his own after the scratching of He's A Given.
How to play it: Redouble WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Redouble chasing down Flow two starts ago