By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s meeting at Randwick. The Kensington track is rated a Good 4.
|Race 1 – 12:50PM ATC HONG KONG TOUR PLATE (1150 METRES)|
I’ve seen enough of the six horses that have raced to suggest 3. Tough Larry is more than capable of winning on debut on the back of a couple of nice trials. They’ve both been around the 800m trip and he’s attacked the line solidly without being pressured which is what you want to see. If he runs up to those efforts and has some ability he looks hard to beat.
Dangers: 1. Altair has been disappointing to date though he was outclassed in Group company second-up. Forgive that run. Fresh he left it all too late to make ground from the back behind his stablemate Charge, who led all the way, but he made ground. Has every chance to improve. 7. Voila ran a nice race on debut and wasn’t disgraced at her other start at Canterbury in a handy enough maiden field back in May. Not sure what to take out of the trial and I wonder if she’ll throw to the Zabeel side of her breeding and want a bit more ground. Check the betting for a lead but she can run well. 2. Charm Offensive wasn’t fancied in betting at Hawkesbury last time but stuck to his guns well over the 1000m. I think the Waller trio, or at least some of them, should have his measure but a place wouldn’t shock.
How to play it: Tough Larry WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Tough Larry finds the line strongly late in a trial at Warwick Farm on August 24
|Race 2 - 1:25PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
There’s no way I’m letting 4. Brilliant Choice go around at silly odds after I was keen on his chances at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks ago as a $2.50 chance. It appeared he was going to have an easy lead then gave it up and was left chasing for much of the race which I’m sure didn’t suit. He didn’t give it up and going to 1400m is of no concern. Like to see him rolling a bit more and he’s definitely worth another chance.
Dangers: 1. Exceltic ran very well in the Rosebud, beaten 1.3 lengths, and I thought he was the winner coming to the turn in the Ming Dynasty but he didn’t stretch out in the shifty ground. Boxed on fairly to run fifth and if the ground is fair for him there’s no reason he can’t be in the finish back in grade from an ideal gate. 6. Vega One has to be included if I like Brilliant Choice as he did finish in front of that horse when he resumed at the Farm. Previously when he’s drawn wide he’s settled back in the field and that may have to happen here but he’s threatening to win a race. 5. Matowi is another horse that ties in with Brilliant Choice through his debut at Canterbury then he went out to a mile at Warwick Farm and just had to do a little more work than the winner when beaten narrowly. Probably concedes a start here but he’ll be strong late.
How to play it: Brilliant Choice E/W ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Brilliant Choice’s last start third at Warwick Farm on August 22
|Race 3 – 2:00PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1150 METRES)|
The market tells us this is anyone’s race and while she’s drawn the outside I think it will suit 3. Gentle Persuasion. She swept home on debut from well back at Wyong, both placegetters have won since and line up against her here, then raced much handier and failed by less than half a length at Canterbury in a slightly tougher race. There looks to be enough speed here to allow her to unleash from the back which I think is her best chance of winning.
Dangers: 1. Ms Rodarte led most of the way on debut to win a questionable form race but she did win and hasn’t raced since. Her two trials have been very quiet, she’s been asked for nothing and hasn’t beaten a runner home. I think what support there is for her closer to race time will be a big pointer. 2. Laburnum is more than capable of winning though I feel she’s been around a fair bit lately and hasn’t come up with a victory. That said she did bump into Smart Melody once and was outclassed in the Silver Shadow last start. Drawn to have every chance so can’t leave her out. 6. Bandol might lead them up here as she did on debut at Hawkesbury where she accounted for Charm Offensive, who lines up in an earlier race. You have to respect the Waterhouse/Bott maiden winners when they go straight back to town and she can give a good account.
How to play it: Gentle Persuasion E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Gentle Persuasion runs a close third at Canterbury on August 15
|Race 4 – 2.35PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
As usual Chris Waller has a strong hand in this staying event and I thought it might be suitable for 4. Prescience to break through on the back-up from running a very close second over 2700m at Canterbury last week. A lot of these stayers seem to relish the quick turnaround and he should be hard fit now after four runs from a long break. The more forgiving Kensington track will also be right up his alley and he has a good chance.
Dangers: 1. Cormac finally notched his second career win when he finally had a few breaks in running and scored comfortably at Warwick Farm two weeks back. He has an extra 2kg here for his trouble and while he’s a bit too short for my liking he could repeat the dose. 7. Chain Of Fools comes through the same race from the Farm and she finished last there but it’s a run that should be completely forgotten. She was badly held up behind the tiring leader and was dragged back through the field. Nice effort second-up and she’s a likely improver here. 6. Night Breaker showed a good deal of fight when runner-up to Cormac after racing on the speed throughout. I’d expect he’ll be in the firing line again and if he runs up to that latest performance he’s a realistic chance.
How to play it: Prescience E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Prescience just fails at Canterbury last Wednesday
|Race 5 – 3.10PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
3. Almanzora is the shortest priced favourite of the day and it’s no surprise. She’s a very progressive mare and I feel her only danger of defeat here is finding 1000m too short. She should have won first-up then posted a brilliant win at Randwick, stretching out late to nail Brook Magic who looked to have the race won running 32.99 for her last 600m (Punters Intel) and 11.42 last 200m both the best of the race. There’s enough speed here for her to settle just off the pace and be the one pouncing. I don’t love the short price but she does look the winner.
Dangers: 4. Pendeloque ran a much better race first-up than it might look on paper. She wasn’t the best away and that basically ruined her chance of settling close to the speed which is where she likes it. She ran sixth but there was about half a length between second and sixth and she will be much fitter for the run. If she lands on the pace she can give cheek. 1. Puppet Master was too slick around Canterbury when running out the 1100m for the first time and his last effort can be overlooked as he was all at sea on the soft track at Rosehill. So long as the Kensington holds up as it has at his last couple of meetings he can give a good sight back to the short course. 5. Prince Mayted wasn’t far from Pendeloque at Randwick two starts back then managed to place behind Almanzora so his form lines stack up pretty well for this race. Can’t see him turning the tables on the favourite but he’s one to throw in the trifectas.
How to play it: Almanzora WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Almanzora surges late to score at Randwick on August 18
|Race 6 - 3:45PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
I’m going around the favourite in this race which looks wide open. 10. Lady I Am found the line well two starts back behind the handy Sweet Scandal then it was a forgive run at Canterbury behind Zonk, who led all the way. She was four back on the fence on the turn and wasn’t able to be a factor at any stage. Still ran the second fastest last 600m of 33.67 (Punters Intel). Not disgraced to be beaten a couple of lengths and Kerrin McEvoy taking over is significant. Good chance without being bullish.
Dangers: 2. Savvan is super consistent but just can’t seem to crack it for a win. Had to get going probably a bit sooner than Tye Angland would have liked last time when outmuscled by Star Of The Seas at Canterbury for her third second placing in five runs back. Drops in grade and the claim helps. Her turn will come sooner or later. 6. Antelope is well worth keeping safe first-up since March where she ran fourth in a strong midweek event at Warwick Farm. Won her only other two starts and her second trial back was sound. Drawn the inside and has Hugh Bowman so she’s not to be discounted. 4. Tiny Taj is making her city debut after three wins from four starts at the provincials. She’s ironically named being quite a big girl and drawing out a bit will allow her the chance to get to the outside and wind up. Just a matter of whether she’s good enough and given she’s been well placed to date she could well be.
How to play it: Lady I Am E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Lady I Am finishes close up behind Zonk at Canterbury on August 15
|Race 7 - 4:20PM ATB REWARDS HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
After the scratchings, left with 11. Bella Success who has been very costly this time in. She’s threatened to win or been unlucky a couple of times and she comes through the All Too Soon race at Rosehill where she settled a long way back and ran on okay. I did hear Hugh Bowman tell connections he felt she’d be better suited over shorter trips with a bit of pace on after her last run but she’s up in trip again here. That said with the race changing complexion she has her chance.
Dangers: . 7. Laszlo has found his best form again and I can see him rolling forward from the wide gate. Looked strong in winning at Hawkesbury and while there’s a bit more depth here it’s not that much stronger that he couldn’t run another honest race. 4. Mo The Great comes into this race fresh since a solid third at Warwick Farm almost two months ago. Fitted with a couple of recent trials and with a bit of luck in running he's an each-way chance. 5. Amanito ran a nice race first-up then battled a little at the Farm two weeks ago when supported in the betting. At his best he's right in a race like this so no surprise to see him improve.
How to play it: Bella Success E/W ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Bella Success's last start fifth at Rosehill on August 25
|Race 8 - 4:55PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
1. Oriental Runner has finally been placed in his right grade after running a number of good races without a lot of luck of late out of his class. Last time he raced in his own class he was bloused late after riding a hot speed. Of course last start he was thrown into the G1 Winx Stakes and he was still in front past the 300m before weakening out of it and the likes of Kementari, Unforgotten, D’Argento ran past him. Reads well for a BM76 doesn’t it?! He takes on some up and comers but if he’s able to find the lead from the inside he is sure to take plenty of running down.
Dangers: 11. Gem Song is a promising colt unbeaten in two starts in his two-year-old season and he creates a lot of interest here. They have been narrow wins but he’s shown fight and a touch of class. We’ve seen a few spruiked three-year-olds go under this week so I’m wary but he’s deserving of respect. 15. Bull Market had his chance at Warwick Farm two weeks ago but the blinkers go on this time so he's well worth including as he's been hovering around a win. 3. Tip Top caught the eye first-up then put in an unusual flop for him at Rosehill about five weeks ago. Freshened up and looked in order at the trials so well worth another chance.
How to play it: Oriental Runner E/W ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Oriental Runner is game in defeat behind Intuition at Randwick on August 4
BEST BET: Race 5 No.3 Almanzora ($2.00)
BEST EACH-WAY: Race 6 No.10 Lady I Am ($5.00)
$20 QUADDIE: 3/2,4,6,10/4,5,7,11/1,3,11,15 @ $20 = 31.25%