By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Thursday’s Kensington meeting at Royal Randwick. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 3:05PM TWILIGHTS RETURN TO RANDWICK PLATE (1100 METRES)|
Unless one of the first starters is well above average 2. Blazing Miss will have her chance to atone for a debut defeat as an odds-on favourite at Newcastle. She probably found the 900m there a bit sharp but once in the clear she kept coming, taking a length or so off the winner in the last 200m running 33.46 for her last 600m (Punters Intel). That run under her belt is a plus and from barrier one there should be no excuses. Read trainer Mark Newnham's comments here.
Dangers: 7. Terrifying has had the one public trial at Cranbourne recently and while no match for the winner she wasn’t overly tested either. Have to respect the Hayes/Dabernig team for bringing her here and she’s a threat. 5. Single Blonde was professional as you’d expect from the Waterhouse/Bott stable racing on the pace and edging away late in her trial at Gosford a couple of weeks ago. You’d picture here right on the speed here and giving a good account. 3. Chelsea Reign had good support on debut at Canterbury but didn’t pass a horse in a run that’s puzzling looking at her trials before and after. Obviously better than what she showed there and no surprise to see a sharp improvement.
How to play it: Blazing Miss WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Blazing Miss runs on into second on debut at Newcastle on November 10
|Race 2 - 3:40PM SUMMER RACING HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
Plenty of unknowns with first starters from a number of strong stables. 6. Haut Brion Her is a well bred filly who looked nippy when winning a trial at Rosehill on November 2. Her dam won her first two starts and was multiple stakes placed and this filly appeared to do it with ease in that trial. Drawn nicely and any support would be significant.
Dangers: 2. Go For Gold is from the prolific Pedrille family and he’s been quite smart in his two trial wins, particularly the latest at Warwick Farm where he was quite dominant. If he runs up to the trials then he’s sure to be right in the finish. 5. Aurman Zou attracted support at Randwick last start but was trapped wide throughout and just battled on beaten a couple of lengths. Due for a change of fortune and wouldn’t surprise to see him ridden a bit colder this time and allowed to run on. Each-way. 1. That Song was largely unwanted in betting but hit the lead before being run down by Nordicus at Randwick back onto a good track. Will need some luck from the wide gate but that looks to be a strong maiden, with the fourth horse already winning since, so he has to be included.
How to play it: Haut Brion Her E/W ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Haut Brion Her comfortably wins her trial at Rosehill on November 2
|Race 3 – 4:15PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (2500 METRES)|
1. Mazaz ran a blinder first-up on this track but hasn’t been as effective in two runs since. That said he was ridden upside down at Rosehill in a stronger race behind Sky Boy so overlook that one. He doesn’t win out of turn but there’s no reason his turn won’t be this one.
Dangers: 2. Equipped is getting fitter and it can’t be long before he strikes his best after three runs back. He also comes through the Sky Boy race and he ran on okay without threatening. Strike rate is becoming a worry but he gets his chance. 3. The Bandit is on the back up after chasing home Tamarack in a four horse field on Saturday. He was runner-up to Heartlet prior to that so if he holds his form then he can be in the finish again. Another, though, whose strike rate is a concern. 6. Irenic is a last start winner at Wagga over the 2500m and while his form can be mixed he gets in with 51kg and as an on pacer could give a sight.
How to play it: Mazaz WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Mazaz’s excellent first-up run at Randwick on October 17
|Race 4 – 4.50PM EVENTS BY ATC SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
2. Natalia came up a bit shorter priced than expected but she was super impressive stretching away to win at Newcastle second-up with Punters Intel showing she ran 33.27 for her last 600m. She went under as favourite at this trip when resuming but happy to overlook that from a wide alley and this looks a very winnable race for her. Drawn ideally and she should take beating.
Dangers: 7. Kedah is another coming off a 900m win at Newcastle, she went around at $1.35 and there wasn’t a moment’s worry for those who took the short price. Hard to knock her with two wins from as many starts and no surprise at all to see her win again. 1. Miss Invincible was on the speed all the way and boxed on to hold second behind Whiskey Shooter in a similar race to this one a few weeks back. Same weight, drawn well and will be in the firing line a long way. Just a matter of whether the two up and comers have more scope for improvement. 8. Mosuo has been very strong late in her two wins and if they overdo it up front she’ll be the one steaming home late. Did quite a good job to win at Goulburn last time and an extra 100m is only in her favour. Each-way.
How to play it: Natalia WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Natalia breaks away for an easy win at Newcastle on November 10
|Race 5 – 5.30PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
4. Groundbreak doesn’t have a super first-up record but he appeals fresh here with blinkers on first time in a race that could set up nicely for him. He hasn’t had a long spell and last time we saw him he charged from the back off a wide gate to run third behind Paret who would towel this opposition up. Nice quiet trial in the same heat as Seasons, and without blinkers, and if he lands in the right spot he can run over the top of them.
Dangers: 2. Discussions led all the way to win a similar race three weeks ago and didn’t appear in danger of defeat at any stage. Whether he is afforded the same sort of run remains to be seen but if he lands in front again he will take some catching. 1. Bravissimo contested the same race and wasn’t able to press for the front but held his ground running third. Best chance for mine is to take up the running but that’s something we can’t know before they jump. Must be included in the chances regardless. 6. All In Rhythm will be a lot fitter for a first-up run a month ago at Warwick Farm where he wasn’t really a factor over the 1000m. Distance suits him a lot better here and being another who excels when in front if he gets there then he could surprise.
How to play it: Groundbreak E/W ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Groundbreak has a quiet trial at Canterbury on November 13
|Race 6 - 6:05PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
4. Nai’a looks to be the best on the program and it’s a big chance for her to break through after a couple of fast-finishing thirds over shorter trips. She was able to settle midfield last start but was just a bit flat when they sprinted before she steamed home to be narrowly beaten behind Vinnie Power, who has run well again since, and probably wins in another bound or two. Her last 200m of 11.27 was easily the best of the race (Punters Intel). Both her wins are around this distance range and she’s entitled to go close.
Dangers: 3. Toryjoy was a bit too far out of her ground first-up at Newcastle but she ran on well enough to suggest she’s come back in good order and can lift. Only run around the mile range was a handy second behind Chalmers on a heavy track and she did win second-up last prep, albeit narrowly. Good chance. 1. Aurora Rose was no match for the first two home but I thought she ran a nice race fresh at Rosehill behind Sexy Eyes. She lacked a sprint there which isn’t surprising given she hasn’t won below 2200m as yet but if she gets control up front she could give them something to run down. 5. Perfect Pitch had plenty of support into equal favourite when an even fourth in the same race as Nai’a a couple of weeks ago. Yet to tick that distance box and doesn’t look as suited as Nai’a to the trip but she’s an each-way hope.
How to play it: Nai’a WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Nai’a charges when the race is all over at Randwick on November 6
|Race 7 - 6:45PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
4. All Too Royal has reacted to being gelded this prep with a couple of strong wins in country and provincial Victoria and has landed in a race where he looks very hard to beat. It wasn’t a bad effort at all to win at Mornington last start where he was handy early then eased before making another run and breaking clear. Has an extra 100m here but a nice draw, likely good speed and Kerrin McEvoy to ride. Plenty to like.
Dangers: 2. Ellie’s Encore won narrowly over this course with the same weight and rider on October 31 then up in class at Rosehill she wasn’t able to race as handy but ran on without threatening late. Expect her to be much closer this time and she can be in the finish as usual. 8. Pro Consul has put two nice efforts together of late and if there is some speed on up front as it appears then he’ll be the one thundering late. Wasn’t far from Ellie’s Encore when third at Warwick Farm a month ago so can’t be overlooked. 1. All Stand comes into the race with the scratchings knocking the field down a bit, he won over 1000m at this track two runs back then ordinary at Canterbury. Freshened and can improve.
How to play it: All Too Royal WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
— Racing.com (@Racing) November 4, 2018