By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick (Kensington) on Saturday.
The rail is in the True position and the track is in the Good range.
|Race 1 - 12:00PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
3. Zardoro closed hardest late last start and is knocking on the door to win another Highway Handicap. Punters Intelligence reveals a last 200m of 12.11s. He was only getting warm at the end of 1200m so 1300m suits now for a horse that has won out to 1400m (and was a good thing beaten over 1500m). The gelding was seven weeks between runs there too, so he can only improve. Two back he should have won his second Highway which would deem him ineligible for this as it’s a Class 3 event. On that occasion he was hopelessly held up. Sam Clipperton is tasked with the job of getting the gelding home from the tricky gate but there does look to be enough speed on paper for him to get his chance. The draw is the only real knock so happy to gamble that Clipperton can overcome that.
Dangers: Give 1. I Am Captain another chance. The seven-year-old has been racing well on wet tracks but as his record suggests, he is much happier on top of the ground (15:3-6-3 on good tracks). He raced keenly in the middle stages at Randwick last start which forced the jockey’s hand in exposing him early. That told at the finish as after making half a run down the straight, he peaked on his run. The wide draw doesn’t help his cause either though and he is creeping up in the weights. 5. Assault’n’bathory pulled up lame last start so forget he ever ran and go off his two strong efforts prior to that. Will have to absorb some pressure in this, however.
How to play it: Zardoro WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
Zardoro and I Am Capitan met last start too
|Race 2 - 12:35PM BOOK SPRING HOSPITALITY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
2. Velocita finds a very winnable race here to make amends from last start where she was desperately unlucky. The five-year-old has always been a touch hit and miss throughout her career but she has strung together two terrific efforts this campaign so banking on her holding that form. First up she took a stack of ground off Notation on a very testing Randwick track before being held up for much of the straight a month ago. Like the four weeks between runs to keep her fresh. In that last start effort she jumped clear favourite ($3.90). The winner Bangkok subsequently beat Fortensky and Haunted while The Party Girl (2nd) and La Chica Bella (5th) both won at their next outing too. Now here Velocita is third up in the same grade of race, and if anything is probably a shade easier, yet has been posted $5. Onto a good track only helps too. James McDonald rides and is one from one on the daughter of Sebring.
Dangers: 1. Connemara to run second again? She has run four seconds in a row including last Saturday behind rising star Haut Brion Her. She is just lacking that killer punch to put one away but is no doubt racing well. On trial at 1400m. 5. Wimlah is another on the seven day backup having run second to Subedar. She had her chance. She rises in grade and takes on more seasoned horses but does drop back to her own sex. 10. Constellations isn’t that well treated at the weights being a 61 rater but she is a mare with more wins ahead of her. Liked her closing effort behind Strome and Reelem In Ruby last campaign. 3. Helga has returned well but does bring midweek form and looks a risk as the early favourite.
How to play it: Velocita WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Velocita was luckless last time out
|Race 3 - 1:10PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
10. Maddi Rocks is the profile of horse that we often see jump out of the ground for Chris Waller. A lightly-raced two-year-old returning at three with a win on the board. That win was a Canterbury maiden where she sat outside of the leader and won comfortably. The times on the day stacked up against Kordia, a gelding that went on to win a Listed race in Queensland at his next outing. This Fastnet Rock filly reminds me of Madam Rouge. She was a brilliant winner on resumption in benchmark company before tackling black type races. That’d be the same hope for this galloper. The draw makes things a little awkward for Kathy O’Hara and it’s likely she’ll have to look for cover. Maddi Rocks has had just the one quiet trial to tune up for this but liked what we saw over 795m behind the speedy Royal Witness. With 52kg and her upside, look out for her.
Dangers: 9. Pandemic’s Wyong win on debut was only a length slower than Miss Invincible’s (Class 2) on the same day and there was some real quality about how this Godolphin gelding closed off his race, clocking 33.52s for his last 600m, some four lengths quicker than the next best. Second and third there have since won themselves (Heart Of Oak and Courageous). 7. All Cylinders ran second to Tenley back in February. His two best runs have been when he has led and 4. Concrete tends to always be very aggressively ridden to find the front. Did like All Cylinders latest trial. 6. Aussie split Dawn Passage and Bivouac on debut. 3. Irish Songs won a Highway last start but clocked the third fastest closing splits across the entire meeting. The dry track and 1100m is his right set up.
How to play it: Maddi Rocks WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Pandemic ($3.10) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Maddi Rocks winning her maiden
|Race 4 - 1:45PM ATC MEMBER TOURS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
5. November Man loves the 1000m and dry tracks. When you put those two together his record reads 8:2-4-0. The five-year-old is certainly no stranger to the Kenso track either having raced on it seven times (for six placings). He has been freshened since we last saw him when he couldn’t pick his feet up in the heavy ground at Randwick. The freshen is something he has reacted well to in the past. Back in January he motored late to just miss to 2. Royal Witness with Witherspoon back in third before having another four weeks off in April which saw him return with another slashing second splitting Brook Magic and Heart Conquered. Punters Intelligence reveals he clocked 32.45s for his last 600m there, the fastest of the entire day. That was him prior to winning at Randwick over 1000m at his next start. It was hard to get much of a read on his two very quiet trials but if he follows the same pattern as he has in the past, he’ll be hard to hold out in this with plenty of speed engaged and Nash Rawillier riding.
Dangers: Royal Witness looks ready to win third up. The speedster ran out of gas first up before having to track a wide path last time out at Randwick to find the fast lane down the outside fence. Taniko ran away at the finish but he ran very well. He has run over the Kenso 1000m twice, for two wins, finding the front on both occasions. Witherspoon looks the leader from the inside, with the recently gelded 7. God Of Thunder spearing across from wide. The speed doesn’t end there either. 6. Natalia raced flat last start at Randwick when well fancied. Tim Clark said post-race that the mare is perhaps better suited to having her runs spaced. A month freshen could see her bounce back. Maps well.
How to play it: November Man WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
History to repeat for November Man?
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 15, 2019
|Race 5 - 2:20PM EVENTS BY ATC HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
Love the booking of Nash Rawiller for 5. Commander. It looks a perfect match. The four-year-old strikes me as the type that responds to a strong, standover type jockey. His win three starts ago at Randwick, where he beat Toryjoy, with Jackson Morris in the saddle, suggests as much. He was subsequently unlucky in the Grafton Guineas when unable to build momentum and then chased a tearaway leader at Warwick Farm, setting it up for Travancore to motor home. That didn’t play to his strengths. 6. Watchdog beat him home there but Commander was coming back on the line and in the shape of race that Saturday looks likely to produce, he can turn the tables. Can see Commander being aggressively ridden to take up the running with the plan of attack to grind his rivals into the ground.
Dangers: Watchdog is very honest and will run well again. A neat ride from Hugh Bowman got him home at Warwick Farm two back. 1. Notio has never run on the quick turnaround but last week wouldn’t have been too taxing in what turned into a sit and sprint won by Sweet Deal. He is back in grade to a BM78, the same grade of race he won in Melbourne first up. His class will take him a long way in this. The blinkers looked to spark up 3. Slow Burn last start. She settled in behind the leaders but couldn’t get clear, finishing sixth in a bunched finish behind The Party Girl. Her best may be behind her but she won’t find a more winnable race than this.
How to play it: Commander WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Commander’s Warwick Farm effort last start
|Race 6 - 3:00PM PREMIER'S CUP PRELUDE (1800 METRES)|
13. Wolfe is building a superb little record, boasting four wins from five starts. That’s rare for a staying type. This is by far his hardest test to date and he lines up the lowest rated horse in the field but none have the scope he does. His only defeat came first up last campaign but that was over 1400m where he half missed the kick and took off a long way from home which nullified any sprint he possesses. Second up he went straight out to 1900m, and although it was a midweeker beating Welsh Legend, he showed great acceleration having taken a sit. He looked more vulnerable third up when he led. He held on but was entitled to given the slow early tempo. Will be interesting to see what Tim Clark does tactically on Saturday but reckon an ideal scenario would have him one out one back behind stablemate 1. Stampede and 4. Goodfella coming across from the wide draw. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have very lofty Group One goals for this lightly-raced five-year-old.
Dangers: 7. So You Win emptied out at the end of 2000m on a heavy track the last time we saw him. He had the race shot to bits but He Ekscels fought back to nail him on the line. He has been five weeks between runs, a similar let up to the one we saw prior to Rosehill over 1800m two runs back. He won well that day. He’ll be cuddled up from the inside draw and produced late. 4. Goodfella showed last start in the Winter Challenge another win isn’t far away but on his heels there was 6. Testashadow. They don’t deserve to be so far apart in the market. Testashadow is a long time between wins but throw him into multiples. Stampede hasn’t been flash in two runs back but the blinkers are reapplied here and he’s much happier rolling along in front. 2. Eastender has won 11 from 24 and creates plenty of interest.
How to play it: Wolfe WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
Wolfe’s latest trial – Gosford Aug 5
|Race 7 - 3:40PM SPRING PREVIEW HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
4. Seaway was there to be run down last start in the Listed Winter Challenge but kept finding to hold off Goodfella and Eckstein. Prior to that the five-year-old was posted wide the trip in the Civic Stakes but wasn’t beaten far. They look the right form references for this. There is an abundance of speed engaged with 9. Cradle Mountain and 3. Fabrizio taking up the running and Tommy Berry should be able to park in behind it, giving him his chance. A winner of six of his 15 starts (and three from six since being gelded), Chris Waller has mapped out a path to get to the G1 Epsom Handicap if he proves up to it. There is not a lot of Seaway but he is a proven weight carrier so 59kg (albeit up from 54.5kg last start) shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance. The three weeks between runs profiles well for him too. As does being third up having won two from three third up, the defeat being on a heavy track.
Dangers: 6. Wren’s Day is a fascinating runner for Godolphin. The six-year-old import has never tackled 1400m before but did win his maiden over a mile. He boasts a Group One second to Cracksman, when sent out as pacemaker for stablemate Cloth Of Stars. He looked sharp in leading his one trial. If he is going to be ridden for speed, this doesn’t set up well for him from the wide draw. 1. Patrick Erin ran in this race last year before taking out The Metrop, running sixth beaten 2.2L by Flow. In his other first up run since then he was fourth behind Winx and Happy Clapper, finishing alongside Egg Tart. As a general rule, Chris Waller’s top tier stayers run well fresh. He can place. 10. Girl Tuesday finally got her groove back. Drops back from 2400m to 1400m but it’s been eight weeks since running third in the McKell Cup. Girl Tuesday met Seaway first up last campaign and although flopped, she did start $2.10. 11. Bangkok is flying.
How to play it: Seaway WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Seaway winning the Winter Challenge last start
|Race 8 - 4:20PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
1. Thy Kingdom Come looks ready to win third up. There was merit in his first two runs back but he clearly needed them. In the latest he cruised into the race like the winner but faded late to finish a well beaten fourth. He still might be half a run short off his absolute top but he has beaten many of his rivals here before so has the class to overcome that. James McDonald takes over the reins having won on the horse twice, from three rides. In the first of those he swept around the outside mid-race to take up the running and trotted in, beating Love Shack Baby by a lazy 4.8L. That was this track and trip too. The five-year-old should find himself in the box seat from the inside draw. If J-Mac can get him off the fence don’t be surprised to see similar daring tactics given Thy Kingdom Come is a momentum type of horse. If he busts these up, it’s hard to see anything troubling him. The John Thompson stable is fresh off a midweek double.
Dangers: Have liked what we’ve seen from 10. Venezuela in his two trials for Kim Waugh. The ex-Lloyd Williams owned import won over a mile overseas before winning at his second Australian run at Kyenton out to 1850m. At his first run in the country he found 1500m a touch too sharp so that’s the worry kicking off over 1400m. He is a horse to follow, however. Goathland won at his first start for the stable and Our Century his second, so history suggests this profile of horse will hit the ground running. 2. Groundbreak at least provides a variation of form coming up from Melbourne and we’ve see Team Hawkes time and again win on the back of a shuttling campaign. He’ll give these a start from the draw.
How to play it: Thy Kingdom Come WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"He looks to get every chance in what looks his race to lose."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 16, 2019
|Race 9 - 5:00PM WINTER RACING HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Concede that it won’t be easy 5. Mister Songman over 1100m from the very wide draw but he is better than a benchmark horse. Much better. That was evident the last time we saw the five-year-old when he decimated his rivals to win by seven lengths. That was in a BM76 over 1400m but it suggested that he was up to winning Group races, with the stable targeting the Epsom. He has been on the sidelines having had bone chips removed but has shown enough in his two trials to suggest he’ll resume where he left off. First up last preparation, which was his first run for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, he split Kapjack and Easy Eddie over this same trip before staying at 1100m second up to finish half a length off Deprive, where Military Zone was back in fourth. It’s likely that Adam Hyeronimus will be forced to cover ground given the way this race sets up but he has the quality to overcome that and still win. The best part of both of his 1100m runs was his ability to come again on the line.
Dangers: 13. Tell Me returns from Melbourne where with any luck, she’d have won both starts. Two back she was hopelessly held up while last start she covered ground and went down narrowly with a gap back to third. Back in December she beat 1. All Too Royal on the Kenso and meets him 1kg better off. Will need luck from the draw too. 4. Goldfinch just keeps fronting up at the moment. She has run three seconds on the bounce and in her only previous Kenso run she was posted wide so forget that. She got a very easy time of it in front last start, and there looks to be more pressure here, but she’s racing too well to discount. 10. Murillo is better than he showed in his first Australian campaign. 7. Ranier will be charging late while don’t want to discount 9. Catesby running well again.
How to play it: Mister Songman WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
The last time we saw Mister Songman