By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Kensington meeting. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 - 12:50PM SKY RACING HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
2. Spitfire did enough on debut at Gosford on a heavy track to say he can step up in trip and be competitive. Did knock up a bit late but there was a gap to third. So if he does take improvement he’s drawn well and has found a winnable race.
Dangers: 3. Caboteur was unwanted in the betting at his second start when leading and only going under late at a mile. If he presses forward again he could take some running down. 5. Military Men drifted in betting at his debut at Newcastle on a heavy track and didn’t feature. Since ticked over in a trial and gets onto a good track with James McDonald to ride. Improvement likely. 8. Bay Of Kiel looked to have her chance first-up at a mile at Doomben behind a handy youngster. Perhaps a good track will be in her favour, she could lift too.
How to play it: Spitfire WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Spitfire runs second at Gosford on July 15
|Race 2 - 1:25PM ASTERN @ DARLEY PLATE (1100 METRES)|
7. Unwritten is an interesting runner first-up since last year’s Breeders’ Plate where he wasn’t disgraced off a wide gate. Gelded, resumes in blinkers and latest trial was quite dynamic. If he runs up to it he should be in the finish.
Dangers: 3. Flying Crazy showed some promise in his only trial running Remarque to a length at Rosehill a few weeks ago. Again if he performs up to his trial he’s going to run well. 6. Sir Crackle led them up at Rosehill at his second start and weakened to beat a couple home. Beaten favourite on debut on the back of some impressive trials. Sure he has the ability but have to take on trust at this point. 8. Vindication had good support on debut at Wyong and hit the line full of running beaten under two lengths at 1000m. Drawn nicely and is one to keep an eye on.
How to play it: Unwritten E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Unwritten wins a trial at Rosehill on July 17
|Race 3 - 2:00PM HEINEKEN PLATE (1100 METRES)|
10. Trifaccia is a very promising filly and she showed that with her luckless debut and a Group 2 placing in the autumn. She cruised in second place in her only recent trial and like the ear muffs coming off. She’ll be hard to hold out.
Dangers: 9. Ringarosa couldn’t have been more impressive with her effort on debut at this track and distance two weeks ago. She did drift a long way back there so it’ll be interesting to see where she lands from a similar gate. 3. Otelo has threatened to win a race in his five starts so far, including a couple of close up efforts at this track in March. Handy trial winner last month, draws well and could surprise. 11. Why Doubt has finished close up at both her starts earlier this year and there’s been nothing wrong with her trials ahead of this return. Each-way claims at least.
How to play it: Trifaccia WIN ($1.65 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Trifaccia runs second in a trial at Hawkesbury on July 19
|Race 4 - 2:35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
2. Kutayha was very well supported to win over 1550m two weeks ago and the form has stood up very well. The extra trip is only in his favour and an extra 2kg shouldn’t be an issue on the strength of that win. The one to beat again.
Dangers: 1. Major Artie showed a return to form with a much improved third behind Yiyi at Rosehill. He’ll roll forward from the outside and put himself in the race. Can give a sight. 5. Yukon seemed to have his chance behind Kutayha third-up but boxed on okay to run fourth. He’s 2.5kg better off here so that’s his advantage if he can make use of it. 3. Navy Cross should be ready to show something after three runs back and back onto a good track.
How to play it: Kutayha WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Kutayha wins at Kensington on July 21
|Race 5 - 3:10PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
It’s very hard to go past 2. Yiyi who has clearly gone up a notch this preparation with a pair of dominant wins at Newcastle and Rosehill. The challenge is a 4kg rise on that win but if anything there’s less depth in this race so entitled to go close.
Dangers: 3. East Indiaman showed improvement second-up as he hit the line nicely to be beaten two lengths. All his best runs have been on good tracks and he’ll be getting close to his peak now. He’s an each-way chance. 6. Crazy Wolf is coming off a maiden win at Wyong but he was strong late there and is clearly on the way up. Based on that win he should relish the extra trip and is one to watch. 1. Off Shaw was a beaten favourite at this track two weeks ago on a soft 5 and the question remains about whether he’s better on a wet track. He can handle the extra trip so it’s a trust exercise on the good ground.
How to play it: Yiyi WIN ($1.45 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Yiyi wins at Rosehill on July 24
|Race 6 - 3:45PM TAB HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
2. Arctic Thunder was a bit unlucky not to win a Midway last time at Rosehill with traffic issues coming from near last. Smaller field suits and has proven consistent when in form. Back against the mares and good chance to go one better.
Dangers: 7. Mystic Rebel shows plenty of promise and ran up to the short price when winning a maiden at Kembla two weeks ago. Obviously a step up in class here but has gate one and we don’t know where she stands just yet so commands plenty of respect. 3. Centimental can be hard to catch but she was on her game last week as she scored over 1400m in this class. Up 2kg on that and if she can put two good runs together she can win this. 6. Buba has been mixing her form but she was excellent two runs ago at Rosehill on a soft 6 then specked in betting and not a factor there last time. A month between runs here and finds James McDonald. Worth including.
How to play it: Arctic Thunder E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Arctic Thunder runs second at Rosehill on July 24
|Race 7 - 4:20PM VINERY STUD HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
6. Parksville comes to town with a reputation as a very promising sprinter. He’s won his three races by big margins on various track conditions and romped away with a trial on his home track a couple of weeks back. Goes forward and no surprise if he measures up. Read trainer Brett Dodson's comments here.
Dangers: 5. Nags To Riches has a Listed placing from two starts ago in May and resumes after a soft trial at Hawkesbury where she found the line well. Drawn to have her chance and significant jockey booking. Logical threat. 10. Escape Artist gets back and runs on and if the speed goes on here would be suited. Made ground to be close up here two weeks ago and beat Kinloch first-up which is good form. Go well. 9. Zelify struck form before a spell with successive wins at Kembla and Canterbury. Fitter for a recent trial and though her form suggests she takes a run to strike form is worth keeping safe.
How to play it: Parksville WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Parksville wins a trial at Coffs Harbour on July 24