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Kensington Winners - Tips For Wednesday 3rd February

By Ray Hickson

Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday's meeting at Kensington. Selections based on a soft track.

Race 1 – 2:20PM TAB PLATE (1100 METRES)

2. Hilal looks a nice style of colt and he certainly hasn’t been asked for the big effort in his two trial appearances so you’d imagine there’s something in the locker. Brushed home well behind Home Affairs in his first then again behind Profiteer last week. Sure to run well.

Dangers: 13. Syracuse has had the one recent trial and sat up on the pace before getting away late to score by a couple in a 742m heat. Expect she’ll find a spot near the speed and give a good sight. 8. Bundchen won a trial on a soft 7 a month ago quite well after a wide run then not bad at Gosford though tested out a bit. Always respect a Waterhouse/Bott first starter. 9. Camplin is a half-sister to handy gallopers like Andermatt and Ghisoni and she’s a little hard to line up given she had a very soft trial win at Hawkesbury against four rivals. Wouldn’t shock if she shows something.

How to play it: Hilal WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Hilal runs third in a trial at Rosehill on January 27


7. The Denzel made a promising debut back in June over a trip short of what will likely be his best trip and starting off at 1400m looks ideal. He’s trialled strongly, winning the latest, on two occasions over 1000m-plus and a wet track is no concern. Hard to hold out.

Dangers: 1. Wheelhouse does look a decent threat. First run for Chris Waller after three starts for three seconds under Brad Widdup including a narrow defeat in the Fernhill over a mile, after racing wide. Trialled three times in blinkers, ridden conservatively, and sure to be in the finish. 2. Favreau is still a maiden but was only beaten two lengths in the G3 Gloaming and then ran fifth to Montefilia in the G1 Spring Champion. Both trials have seen him settle back and work home into fourth place at his leisure. If he’s good enough to knock this off first-up he could be in for a big autumn. 8. Raccolto is well worth keeping safe on debut. She was a $650,000 yearling and has obviously taken some time but she hasn’t been tested out, has drawn one here, so keep an eye on betting.

How to play it: The Denzel WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

The Denzel wins a trial at Randwick on January 10


7. Skedaddle has done nothing but impress in her couple of trials this time in, closing off from just behind the pace on a soft 7 then leading all the way on a good track two weeks ago. Imagine she’ll land on the speed and if she runs up to those trials will be a big chance.

Dangers: 2. Magic Ruler showed some promise with placings at his first two starts then pulled up with cardiac arrythmia when running last at Canterbury back in August. Nothing wrong with his two trials, drawn well and handles a wet track. Keep in mind. 6. Lady Of Luxury produced a big finish to chase home Newsreader in the Magic Millions maiden at the Gold Coast. Form from that race can be patchy at times but a repeat effort will see her go close. 8. Yumi was expected to win on debut in January last year and essentially broke her pelvis and was pulled up. Her two recent trials have been okay, she was run down by The Denzel in the latest, and is a big watch.

How to play it: Skedaddle WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Skedaddle wins a trial at Randwick on January 21


1. Let’s Rebelle ran a nice race off a break then backed it up with a solid chasing second at Warwick Farm in similar grade. Extra trip isn’t an issue and she might get some on pace favours here, only needs to continue her upward trend to be a winning chance.

Dangers: 7. Elegant Grace probably wants the track to improve a bit but again looks to find a nice spot on the speed and that will give her a shot. No match for the winner at Wyong last time but boxed on well and is worth including. 2. Joigny comes back in trip, which could be a small worry, after a close second at 1800m here and a battling fifth at 1900m at Canterbury. Can go a little one paced at times but this is the right sort of race that she could win with even luck. 3. Lamu is just down a notch after running on without threatening at Rosehill at her first run for the new stable. Her best is more than good enough to have her right in the mix so one to keep an eye on.

How to play it: Let’s Rebelle E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Let’s Rebelle runs second at Warwick Farm on January 13


7. He’s A Given is something of a marvel, still winning races at nine and he has conditions to suit him again. Relished the conditions to score at Kembla last start and while back 200m he’s drawn to geta nice run and is a handy each-way chance at least.

Dangers: 1. Chocolatier should be just about ready after three runs back and he showed improvement at Canterbury last Friday night running into third. Quick back up is interesting and he’s more than capable. 2. Guise might be a false favourite but then again not sure what else should be. She ran an even race fresh then never threatened at Rosehill up in class. If she produces her best then she’s a good chance but her overall form is mixed so take her on trust and by the market. 9. Laila De Vega doesn’t win out of turn but she was back to her best when chasing home Pitchfork at Canterbury a couple of Fridays ago. Handles the soft range and has a case to say she can run well.

How to play it: He’s A Given E/W ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

He’s A Given wins at Kembla on January 9


5. Proud Mia should be able to find the front if she jumps with them and that will take her a long way to making it four straight. Gave nothing else a chance at Wyong and any improvement in the track would be a plus. Watch for any pattern but if it’s leaders or fair play she’ll give a big show. Read trainer Nick Olive's comments here.

Dangers: 9. Geist was a late scratching at Randwick two Saturdays ago after kicking out in the tie-up stalls. Prior to that she was coming along well with easy wins at Hawkesbury and Wyong, latest on a heavy track. All being well she should be competitive. 2. Epic Dan hasn’t raced at 1000m for a while but he is a genuine wet tracker who would relish any speed battle or run on pattern. Keep in mind. 1. Mossman Gorge didn’t get into the race here on a heavy track a month ago but since has gone under narrowly at Canterbury. Probably doesn’t want it in the heavy range so monitor that and if they’re running on he’ll be hitting it strongly.

How to play it: Proud Mia WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Proud Mia wins at Wyong on January 24


9. Flexible faces a class rise on her maiden win a month ago but it was easy as you like and she shapes as though she will love 1400m on a wet track. Granted the form through her maiden hasn’t stood up as yet but she did it easily and has all the upside. Wide gate no issue and may be a plus come the last. Go close.

Dangers: 1. Dalmatia Prince looks overs after a hidden run first-up where he didn’t get clear at all before making late ground on the inside at Warwick Farm a month ago. Plenty of ticks for him with a wet track, fitter, soft gate and James McDonald to ride. Definite chance. 4. Escaped ran a brave second when resuming here in December and his two runs since have been fair when right in the market. If he gets some control out to 1400m he can be dangerous. 3. Snitzify is racing well with a close up fourth in similar grade at Warwick Farm then a narrow Wyong win.

How to play it: Flexible WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Flexible wins at Warwick Farm on January 6

All the fields, form and replays for Wednesday’s Kensington meeting

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