By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Kensington meeting. Selections based on a good to soft track.
|Race 1 – 2:00PM JOSH HOWE BIG SPORTS BREAKFAST PLATE (1100 METRES)|
7. Oh Say showed plenty of ability in trials prior to a disappointing debut on a heavy track back in June. Prepared to forgive that, she’s trialled very well again leading into this and drawn to get every chance. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 6. Tycoonist is now with Chris Waller and hit the line very well in his second trial. Form wise he hasn’t done a lot wrong with a last start second and three fourths. Keep safe. 2. Colonel was a firmer in betting at Kembla last time and battled on after racing on the speed. Going well at the provincials so can't completely discount. 1. Billy Bets does look up against it despite the small field. Failed to beat a runner home in both trials.
How to play it: Oh Say WIN ($1.65 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Oh Say runs second in a trial at Rosehill on September 28
|Race 2 – 2.35PM SAM FLANAGAN BIG SPORTS BREAKFAST PLATE (1400 METRES)|
6. Sweet Reply looks ideally placed to break through after three seconds on end behind good quality opposition. Ran out 1250m strongly at Canterbury last time so the trip, especially from a soft gate, is no issue. Should go close.
Dangers: 3. Pyrmont is fitter for two runs back and he might appreciate the extra trip after those 1100m runs. Lost the plot a bit at Warwick Farm second-up before finishing off okay late. No surprise if he puts himself in the finish. 7. Fortune Seeker will likely try to lead as she did when winning at Goulburn a couple of weeks ago where she was strong on the line. Biggest test to date but can give a good sight. 2. Kukeracha had a nice run behind the speed and was a bit one paced as he edged into second at Canterbury first-up since May. Fitter and rise in trip may suit so entitled to another chance.
How to play it: Sweet Reply WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Sweet Reply runs second at Canterbury on October 5
|Race 3 – 3:10PM HEINEKEN HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
4. Bethencourt is the up and comer of the field and he was super overcoming the outside gate in a big field at Wyong second-up. Looks good speed here and he should get every chance in the run, on paper, to measure up. Hard to go past.
Dangers: 1. Gone Bye is fitter for one run back and it’s worth noting he lifted sharply to win second-up last time in. From the inside alley he will be on the speed, he could lead them and if he gets any favours can be hard to get past. 8. Olympic Legend had support here three weeks ago and just battled finishing midfield. Ran well first-up and might be looking for the extra distance now. 2. Time Raid scored an upset win at Warwick Farm third-up and rises 2kg but stays in the same grade. Has a case.
How to play it: Bethencourt WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Bethencourt wins at Wyong on October 1
|Race 4 – 3:50PM CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
2. Almerheri is worth a look each-way after a sound first-up effort at Warwick Farm where she made ground from near the tail. First time beyond 1400m this year and she’s generally run well around the mile to date. Good chance.
Dangers: 1. Le Gai Soleil is a short priced favourite and may well to be too good first-up but she was a bit plain at her last run before a spell and looks to be trialling like a horse who will get over more ground this prep. They’re small negatives, she’s still the horse to beat. 4. Happy Candy has been around the mark at this level in two runs since a Wyong win in August. Probably presses forward from the outside gate and if she gets comfortable she can be in the finish. 5. Rathvilly Miss finished just behind Almerheri at Warwick Farm last time after racing just off the speed. Might be a length off these but she’s racing very well and should be included in the chances.
How to play it: Almerheri E/W ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Almerheri runs second at Warwick Farm on October 7
|Race 5 – 4:30PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
5. Aspect Ratio led all the way to a dominant Wyong win before going down as favourite at Canterbury in a slowly run race where she made a midrace move. So not disgraced there and the extra trip is in her favour from a soft draw. Should be in the finish. Read trainer John Thompson's comments here.
Dangers: 8. Satin Rain should have won at Hawkesbury two runs back the atoned with a tough on pace Gosford win at 1900m. Did beat Aspect Ratio home in the ATC Oaks earlier this year and is hitting her straps. Good chance. 2. So Wicked is up 3kg and drawn wide but she was explosive winning at Canterbury from just off the speed after leading at her previous couple of starts. Will need a good ride and some breaks in running but hard to leave out in current form. 6. Highmaster led and was no match for So Wicked in that Canterbury race but does get that 3kg turnaround in his favour. Drawn one so should be right on the pace again and is a definite chance.
How to play it: Aspect Ratio E/W ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Aspect Ratio runs third at Canterbury on October 5
|Race 6 – 5:10PM HAPPY 30th HAWK @ ANZ_NEWS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
7. Belluci Babe is very short for a mare coming off a BM64 win at Hawkesbury but she did it so easily there and has struck a race with few horses of her upside. Drawn to either lead or be right there and expecting her to measure up.
Dangers: 6. Feel The Knight tends to draw wide in Highway races and get a long way back but he’s come up with a more favourable gate and the short trip suits him. If they overdo it he’d be advantaged. Each-way. 1. Iconic Star is very fast and she is a specialist at the short course with all six wins coming at 1000m or below. Warmed up with a Newcastle trial win, she generally runs well fresh and while drawn wide should not be underestimated. 8. Eveleigh looks a good roughie second-up with blinkers on in a much more suitable race than her first-up task at Randwick. She was back and wide there and never in the picture. Performed at this level last prep and could surprise.
How to play it: Belluci Babe WIN ($1.45 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Belluci Babe wins at Hawkesbury on October 11
|Race 7 – 5:50PM TAB LONG MAY WE PLAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
3. Bigboyroy arguably should have won a couple of races last prep but resumes here and hasn’t missed a place first-up. Liked his Rosehill trial last week and he kicks off at the same trip as last time in when he ran a close second at Warwick Farm.
Dangers: 9. Atlantic King is an interesting runner first-up at this trip after just one run last time in for a second at Rosehill in May on a heavy track. Has drawn out but he won a 1200m trial and hasn’t yet run a bad race. Keep safe. 5. Lisdoonvarna will appreciate a little bit of fire out of the track and she’s ready to show something after three runs back. Made some ground at Warwick Farm last time and drops 3kg from an inside gate. Capable of showing up. 2. Promotions was ordinary first-up at Canterbury then went back to the trials and performed well behind Bivouac. On the trial he’s in the mix but on the first-up run is hard to get keen on. Check betting for a push.
How to play it: Bigboyroy WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Bigboyroy runs second in a Rosehill trial on October 16