By Nick Berney
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday’s Kensington meeting. Selections based on a soft to heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
|Race 1 - 12:15PM TAB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Tricky 2YO race to start with first starters engaged and minimal disclosed heavy track form. 1. Baroque Road is a first starter and has had two solid hit-outs winning both of his trials. Further, he ran strong time/sectionals relative to the morning after adjusting for age, class and additional factors. In his latest heat, the second placegetter Golden Queen has since come out and run well at Scone last Saturday behind the smart two-year-old filly In Secret. He tends to get on the wrong leg, is still immature but has talent and expect an aggressive ride from the wide draw.
Dangers: Forgive 3. Captain Bond, who last start failed in extremely testing conditions at Randwick 25 days ago after being specked $10-$9 late in betting. He had the pace/bias against him in his prior start at Hawkesbury and tried hard when running second in a high rating race relative to the day. The two-year-old colt, who represents value, can bounce back and a senior rider in Tim Clark goes on. Market watch 13. Spicy Hot who comes out of a proven heat and, although raced keenly, he wasn’t extended. 7. Oriental Tycoon may have the last shot.
How to play it: Baroque Road ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Baroque Road wins a trial at Randwick on May 2
|Race 2 - 12:50PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
First starter 9. Koshu looks a nice type, won her trial in style at Randwick and ran fast time/sectionals relative to the morning. The two-year-old filly backed it up visually, showing the key attribute of acceleration and hitting the line hard to win the heat with ease. Some query just one 736m trial, but the John O’Shea debutante looks to have the ability and will undoubtedly improve from her latest experience.
Dangers: Debutant 6. Shadow Vampire won his trial in dominant fashion, looks an improver and maps to get all favours. Market watch 5. Secret Revolution who returns as a gelding and 2. Fire Power is coming out of the astute team Hawkes stable.
How to play it: Koshu WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Koshu wins a trial at Randwick on May 2
|Race 3 - 1:25PM ADMIRE MARS @ ARROWFIELD HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
2. Podium returned as a gelding and was a dominant winner at Newcastle 27 days ago, posting a career peak figure. The three-year-old gelding sat outside the leader at a moderate pace and accelerated away from his rivals. Further, he was strong on the line and ran his final 200m split in 12.48. The Chris Waller trained galloper has come out of time/sectional merit races throughout his career and can make the step-in grade. However, some query stepping up in distance off a break but expect him to roll forward in an anticipated slow pace and a repeat of his last start effort will put him in the finish.
Dangers: 7. Toesonthenose has had excuses in his past two starts after having no peace at this track two starts ago and was checked/blocked at a critical stage at Hawkesbury 13 days ago. The three-year-old gelding has a strong starting price profile and has multiple winning figures. 6. Vyner was gelded prior to his first-up run at Hawkesbury 13 days ago, raced wide and was not suited. He can improve significantly over further distance and draws much kinder. 5. Terrameades is coming out of a high rating race and 1. Duke Of Gordon is a lightly raced middle distance type on the rise.
How to play it: Podium WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Podium wins last start at Newcastle on April 21
|Race 4 - 2:00PM VINERY YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
8. Briars Kingdom was well backed throughout the day and started a solid $3.20 favourite but raced flat second-up in a high-pressure race at Newcastle 27 days ago. Prior to that run, he won well at Goulburn when resuming and produced a figure that aligns well with his opposition. The five-year-old gelding who can bounce back produces all his career peak figures when fresh and gets key factors in his favour. Blinkers go on for the first time, he is proven on rain-affected ground, receives a significant barrier change, and Tommy Berry rides for the first time.
Dangers: 6. Oakfield Twilight, who represents value, was wide throughout at Gosford 11 days ago and stuck on ok in a high rating race after adjusting for age, class and additional factors. The seven-year-old gelding is rock-hard fit, will roll forward and has strong form lines. 2. Azarmin, who raced in stronger grade last preparation, resumes and has trialled well enough for this assignment. Further, James McDonald rides and she excels on rain-affected ground. 3. Escaped was a dominant winner at this track last preparation and 9. Glamour Fox is a knockout.
How to play it: Briar’s Kingdom WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) & Oakfield Twilight WIN ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Briars Kingdom last start at Newcastle on April 21
|Race 5 - 2:35PM PKF HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Lightly raced improver 3. Niffler resumes after trialling well under light riding at Rosehill over 1030m. The four-year-old mare has a strong record and was on an upwards ratings spiral last preparation before being slow to recover prior to spelling. First-up last preparation, she ran the third-fastest final 200m split of the entire meeting in 11.84 and was dominant late. She has multiple winning figures, can sprint fresh and revels in rain-affected going.
Dangers: 2. Black Queen resumes and has trialled well enough in a fast time/sectional heat at Rosehill with a young apprentice piloting. The four-year-old mare raced consistently last preparation in this grade and won three races. She will undoubtedly improve over further distance but can sprint fresh off one trial and has ratings that align well against her opposition. 1. Ita is 2100m back to 1400m which isn’t ideal but has been freshened up for this and is rock-hard fit. 4. Finepoint has had two quiet trials, hasn’t been extended in either and went out a winner before spelling last preparation. Nothing went right for 5. Sensationalisation last start and add 7. Segrill trifectas and first-fours.
How to play it: Niffler WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Niffler runs fifth in a trial at Rosehill on May 6
|Race 6 - 3:10PM FIRST JUSTIFY YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
4. Glittery has trialled well enough and produces her career peak figures when fresh. The three-year-old filly sprinted hard to win first-up last preparation at Wyong and ran the fastest final 600m sectional of the entire meeting in 34.48. Further, she wasn’t suited second-up at Warwick Farm, getting too far back in a moderate pace and peaked on her run after making a long-wide sustained effort to finish fourth. The Godolphin trained runner has a strong starting price profile, proven form-lines and will get run to suit with the anticipated fast tempo.
Dangers: 6. Po Kare Kare went out a winner before spelling last preparation and looked to have come back well after two solid trials with an apprentice riding in her latest heat. She maps to get all favours; James McDonald rides for the first time and expect her to return improved. 9. Prasiolite had no luck first-up at Canterbury 14 days ago and will be running on hard. Forgive 8. Deep Romance last start where she pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia. She has since trialled well in-between runs and will roll forward.
How to play it: Glittery WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Glittery runs second in a trial at Rosehill on April 29
|Race 7 - 3:45PM PKF SYDNEY HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
Open race. 7. Comme Bella Fille is a consistent type and has trialled well enough in preparation for this first-up assignment. The four-year-old mare’s fresh form is superior to what the form guide reads, and she can sprint. Further, she maps to get all favours and has multiple winning figures.
Dangers: 12. Norman is continually improving throughout his preparation and will be hitting the line hard. 3. So United will be fitter and suited over further distance. 8. Island Bay Boy has strong form lines with Nash Rawiller taking over the riding duties.
How to play it: Comme Bella Fille WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Comme Bella Fille runs fourth in a trial at Randwick on May 2
|Race 8 - 4:20PM VICTOR LUDORUM @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
7. Deep Finesse was impressive last start winning by a dominant margin of 4.5 lengths at Warwick Farm 30 days ago and did it on raw ability. The three-year-old colt was ridden up early to lead at a fast pace and accelerated away from his rivals whilst racing greenly but still ran strong time. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. Further, the decisive margins throughout confirm the quality, and there has been a subsequent winner. The John Thompson trained galloper has since trialled well in between runs, winning a heat at Randwick in quick closing sectionals, and his profile suggests he can make the step in grade. He is still immature/learning but receives a gear change and a senior metropolitan rider. In addition, he will roll forward, and a repeat of his last start figure will make him hard to hold out.
Dangers: 10. Sur La Mer can sprint fresh and raced in stronger grade last preparation. 6. Broken Hill receives a significant barrier change and is ready to peak third-up. 15. Curtis Island ran one of the fastest final 600m splits of the entire meeting last start at Canterbury in 37.40 and beat the rest easily.
How to play it: Deep Finesse WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Deep Finesse wins at Warwick Farm on April 18
Best Bet: Race 8 # 7 - Deep Finesse
Next Best: Race 6 # 4 - Glittery
Best Value: Race 4 # 8 - Briars Kingdom & # 6 - Oakfield Twilight
Leg 1: 3,2,1,4,5
Leg 2: 4,6,9,3
Leg 3: 7,12,3,8
Leg 4: 7
Combinations = 80.