By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Tuesday’s Kensington meeting at Randwick. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 11:55PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
5. Twenty Four Carat has promised a bit but this is the first time he’s drawn well and showed in his trials an ability to be handier than we’ve seen in his races. Those trials leading in say he’s well and he has a good chance first-up.
Dangers: 6. Quintessa stays at 1400m after a super first-up second behind Cock Match at Warwick Farm. The query is whether she is looking for that bit further but gets a soft run from an inside alley and will be strong late. 4. Starla has been a beaten odds-on favourite in both runs back from a spell seemingly without any real excuses. Perhaps 1400m suits her now but she’s more popular with bookies than punters at this stage. 1. Spaceboy is another to be beaten favourite twice this time in but he might have signalled with his trial win that he’s best ridden when allowed to run along. If he gets some control he could take catching.
How to play it: Twenty Four Carat E/W ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Twenty Four Carat runs second in a Rosehill trial on October 29
|Race 2 - 12:30PM THE AGENCY PROJECTS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
4. Costas comes through what looks stronger races than his rivals and he should be ready now after two runs back and out to 1800m. Slightly held up on the turn before working home okay last time and is hard to hold out here.
Dangers: 6. Navy Cross is the real up and comer with a couple of wins at mile from the front against his name. Expect he will press to lead them again, his chances may be dictated by what company he has. 5. Lewis held off Battenburg to win at Canterbury then tried to lead all the way over this course before being run down late. That was a month ago and he’s trialled since. Must be included. 2. Gitan ran fifth in the same race as Costas when he was resuming a couple of weeks ago and settled back before running on well late. Good enough on his best form to trouble these.
How to play it: Costas E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Costas runs fourth at Warwick Farm on October 23
|Race 3 – 1.05PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1100 METRES)|
3. Dirty Work just needs the breaks getting across and he has the chance to run up to his form in much stronger races. Bumped into a smart one at Hawkesbury then beaten two lengths in the Heritage and Roman Consul. That’s the best form, he’s the one to beat.
Dangers: 13. L’Cosmo placed in all four starts last time in and was a bit stiff not to win one or two of them. Nice easy trial finding the line in good style leading into this and she’s looking dangerous. 15. Born To Play was hard in the market at her only start back in May, L’Cosmo ran second in the race, and probably should have finished a bit closer than sixth. Trial winner recently and the market will tell you plenty about her chances. 6. Hulk has been threatening to win one for a while and he reacted well to being ridden colt when placed behind Diamond Thunder and Cardiff last time. Easier here but then again he’s a nine start maiden with four straight defeats at that level prior to last time.
How to play it: Dirty Work WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Dirty Work runs fourth in the Roman Consul at Randwick on October 12
|Race 4 – 1.40PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE CHOISIR HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
On paper this race looks like 3. Agent Pippa’s to lose. She should lead and control and when that happens in her races she’s always tough to run down. Form through her Randwick win last month is strong and has to take plenty of catching.
Dangers: 1. Glenall looked very sharp winning his trial at Rosehill last week after a freshen since two flops in Melbourne. On his best form he’s a big threat to the favourite and if there’s support for him it has to be noted. 4. Southern Lad tends to be a bit one dimensional but with four rivals he won’t be giving away too much start you’d think. Goes well fresh and his one trial was good, though not as eye-catching as he can trial. Respect. 2. Chauffeur has finally been gelded and is now with Joe Pride after a mixed Victorian prep. He did win first-up in that prep down the straight at Flemington and comes through a strong trial. Type of horse you’d like to see do it first but he’s worth being wary of.
How to play it: Agent Pippa WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Agent Pippa wins at Randwick on October 12
|Race 5 – 2.25PM BORAL TIMBER HANDICAP (3200 METRES)|
3. Miss Moana jumps quickly to 3200m third-up but she’s the one with a turn of foot on the way up this prep. Sharp first-up win then never in it last time but prepared to overlook that. Shown she’s a strong stayer and is in a winnable race.
Dangers: 1. Breakdance is not the type of horse you’d want to take a short price about even coming off an easy win last start at Warwick Farm. He’s a one paced stayer so the trip shouldn’t worry him, it’s just whether he can sprint if needed. Will give a sight but too short. 2. Executive Chairman beat Breakdance over 2400m two starts back then wasn’t able to be on the speed when fourth behind him at the Farm. This race sets up differently so give another chance. 4. Eugenio appreciated the extra distance and romped away with a 2400m event at Kembla in lesser class recently. Should handle the trip, and if he does then he’s one of the chances.
How to play it: Miss Moana E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Miss Moana wins first-up at Wyong on September 24
|Race 6 – 3.40PM JCDECAUX HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
5. Statuesquely went under as favourite first-up but she’s set to atone here in a race where she should get complete control. Rolling type who won second-up last prep and this is a drop in class. Take running down.
Dangers: 6. Zouologist hit the line nicely enough when resuming at Warwick Farm in a similar event and drawn to be handy if required. Consistent type so far and if he does improve a length or so he’ll be in the finish. 10. Jetski was buried back in the ruck and while he made some ground last start he wasn’t ever looking a winning chance. Might be better off getting to the outside and running on and should have that chance here up in trip. Go well. 4. McCormack has been disappointing at his last couple but go back three runs and the form around his Canterbury third is pretty good. Has the claim and gate one and wouldn’t surprise to see him improve.
How to play it: Statuesquely WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Statuesquely runs third at Warwick Farm on October 23
|Race 7 - 4:20PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
5. D’Oro Rain is a good chance of getting an easy time up on the speed here and should be ready to produce after two runs back. Beaten margin was exaggerated by a late check last time and she’s well placed to show something.
Dangers: 12. Palurien bumped into a promising stablemate at Newcastle last time after knocking off Canyonero to win her maiden. Will be conceding a start but if they overdo it or there is a run on bias she’s a big threat. 1. Kedah is another who will likely get back and look to run on. Closed late at Warwick Farm last time but was never a threat. More than capable if the race pans out to her liking. 9. Cardinet is an in-form country mare who looked very strong striding away late winning at Albury maintaining her unbeaten record for the stable. Drawn well and could measure up.
How to play it: D’Oro Rain E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT
D’Oro Rain runs fourth at Newcastle on October 19
|Race 8 - 5:00PM CACTUS IMAGING HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
10. Soldier Of Love caught the eye first-up at this track then hit the lead before being run over late at Warwick Farm. Should get a nice trail behind the likely leader, or could lead if needed, and is ready to peak. Go well.
Dangers: 2. Jazzland was allowed to run the race to suit himself when he won first-up at 1350m and steps into his preferred distance range now. There is a chance he could control again and take running down if that happens. 9. Orcein is one of those horses you have to throw in quaddies and the like. He ran on without threatening but only beaten two lengths second-up so will be very fit into this. Not sure he can take advantage of gate one, in a potentially moderately run race, but leave him out at your peril. 12. King Hewitt has been around the mark in three runs since a first-up placing. Honest galloper who is a must for a trifectas.
How to play it: Soldier Of Love E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS
Soldier Of Love runs third at Warwick Farm on October 23
|Race 9 - 5:40PM SHARP EXTENSIVE IT HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
2. Mansa Musa is a touch one dimensional but he should find the lead here. Two trials since he’s been gelded have been impressive and he did win his first two starts before taking on better grade. If he’s in front on the turn without too much pressure he’ll take stopping.
Dangers: 10. Wandabaa is a considerable danger because we’re not sure how good she is yet having won all three starts in lesser grade. Her win first-up over 900m was strong as she didn’t get going until 100m out but won pulling up. Read trainer Kris Lees' comments here. 8. Roman Wolf showed plenty of ability as a two-year-old and ran well in a strong trial recently. Unbeaten first-up so he’s one to be wary of. 1. Spencer is better suited over a bit more ground but has gate one and trialled very nicely in a small field at Hawkesbury, looking very good through the line. His Kolding form is looking pretty good so worth including in the multiples.
How to play it: Mansa Musa WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS
Mansa Musa wins a trial at Rosehill on October 29