By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Kensington (Randwick).
The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a good track.
|Race 1 - 1:20PM SIEGE OF TOBRUK HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
Rachel King made an early move on 6. Alakahan last start at Warwick Farm when the pace slackened up front but it left him a sitting shot to dominant winner Heart Of Pussance. The five-year-old is deep into his preparation and although he has been threatening to win a second race all campaign, he gets another chance here.
Dangers: 1. Feel The Rush brings the strongest form reference running fifth in the G2 Chairman’s last start only a length away from subsequent Sydney Cup winner Selino but how flattered was he by the brutal tempo? Goes up 8kg but plummets back to BM72 company and Hugh Bowman rides.
How to play it: Alakahan WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
|Race 2 - 1:55PM WOMENS AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL SERVICE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
4. Betty Blooms was sharp enough to win over 1200m first up at Newcastle, chasing down sharp provincial level sprinter Zorocat. She’s jumps from a Class 1 to a BM72 in town but her past form around the likes of High Low Bet, Nimalee and La Tigresa stack up well. There is a query just how well some of these mares are going at the moment, but not with Betty Blooms.
Dangers: 1. Snippy Fox gets the winkers on for the first time after an encouraging return at Canterbury a fortnight ago. It was only two starts ago, her last before a spell, that she won by three lengths over this same track and trip in this same grade. 7. Bright Rubick the best roughie.
How to play it: Betty Blooms WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
|Race 3 - 2:30PM THE BLUEBIRDS HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
This is an important race for 5. Green Flash. Confident that he has the talent to race through the grades so he should be winning this BM64 out to the mile. His debut win at Newcastle was much better than it looks on paper, running fast late splits, before staying at 1200m at Canterbury two weeks ago. He kept closing but found the trip too short.
Dangers: 9. Grace And Harmony was backed as if unbeatable at Newcastle first up and the money was right with the filly putting two lengths on her rivals. She is also capable of winning better races than this. 2. Echo Point will give another sighter coming off an all-the-way win at Kembla only eight days ago.
How to play it: Green Flash WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
|Race 4 - 3:05PM COLONEL T.L.F RUTLEDGE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
It’s hard to ignore how well 4. Rubamos maps. The three-year-old didn’t beat much at Warwick Farm last start with the runner up Captivare subsequently well beaten at Kembla Grange but he put three lengths on him. Kerrin McEvoy draws to settle handy again from barrier 2 and he looks the horse to beat, as the market suggests.
Dangers: 1. Tycoonist is already a winner in BM72 company so he’s exceptionally well in just 4kg off the minimum. Add into the mix Campbell Rawiller’s 3kg claim and he is just 1kg off the bottom. Loves dry tracks, which he’ll get too. He’d be on top if not for the tricky draw. 5. Perfect Radiance is so much better than what she produced first up. Give her the chance to atone.
How to play it: Rubamos WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
|Race 5 - 3:40PM AUSTRALIAN LIGHT HORSE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Give 5. Mr Dependable any kind of control in front and he’ll pinch it. The grey combined with Tim Clark to do exactly that last start at Canterbury over 1550m. That was on a soft track too. Historically, he has needed a good track to run up to his best. He gets that here out to 1800m and there doesn’t look to be a lot of pressure pace wise. Another perfect scenario.
Dangers: 4. Itz Lily got to the right part of the Tamworth track to win the Muswellbrook Cup four weeks ago, where Mr Dependable ran ninth. She is flying but maps to settle last. 11. Pesto ran home strongly on his Australian debut at Caulfield over 1400m. He warrants respect but not sure how deep that races was and he’s very well found.
How to play it: Mr Dependable WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
|Race 6 - 4:15PM VICTORY IN THE PACIFIC HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
Suspect we’ve only seen a glimmer of 8. Count De Rupee is capable of so far. He’s already had seven starts, winning three of them, but there is so much more to come. He won a Class 1 by four lengths first up last preparation before also ending the campaign on a winning note too. He cruised to the line to win a Kembla trial recently with Tommy Berry aboard.
Dangers: 3. Smart Image has been gelded since we last saw him at the races. It could be the making of him as his talent has never been in question. Hasn’t looked flash in two trials this time back but both were on heavy tracks, which he doesn’t handle. Forget 2. Marway ever ran last start when posted deep. Expect him to be aggressively ridden to lead.
How to play it: Count De Rupee WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
|Race 7 - 4:50PM THE LAST POST HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
3. Toryjoy hasn’t won for a while but she has a great record at this track (5:1-2-2) and nobody knows this horse as well at Kathy O’Hara. The six-year-old is at her best when she it let roll in front which is how she has won all five of her races. There isn’t another obvious leader outside of her so as long as she settles first up, there’s every chance she pinches it.
Dangers: 11. Bound To Win smoked to the line first up in a slowly run race. That was eight weeks ago now, though. Was scratched from Saturday for this, despite drawing wide. 8. La Gai Soleil still has scope to keep progressing. 7. Yamazaki is a torturous watch given her get-back style but she doesn’t race in benchmark company very often and she loves dry decks.
How to play it: Toryjoy EACH WAY ($23 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS