By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Monday’s Kensington meeting at Randwick. Selections based on a good track.
|Race 1 – 12:45PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Easily the most promising horse racing at this meeting comes up here in 1. Diplomatico who we haven’t seen since he was narrowly beaten on debut back in June. He raced greenly in the straight and charged at them when the race was over. Punters Intel data shows he ran 33.87, the fastest last 600m and 11.00 for the last 200m which was 0.17 faster than any other. He showed a different side in his trial, leading and racing out to a six length win. If he does everything right he should be too good.
Dangers: 2. Golden Shoulder had trialled quite well before a solid debut at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks ago, closing off when he put the mind on the job late. He’ll eat up the extra ground and if there is a danger he’s the main one. 9. Sir Owen was widely expected to win first-up at Newcastle in a maiden on Cup Day and was very one paced. He just held his ground without ever looking like picking them up. If that horse turns up here he’s no hope but giving him the benefit of the doubt as he did trial very well leading in. 3. Altair has been competitive in similar events at his last couple of starts. He may be bumping into one or two with a bit more scope but he only has to hold his form to be somewhere in the finish.
How to play it: Diplomatico WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Diplomatico’s easy trial win at Rosehill on September 21
|Race 2 - 1:20PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Scratchings have opened this race right up for 4. Unguarded who appears to be looking for more ground and she was quite strong late at Warwick Farm second-up. Drawn well and placed at her only run on this track. She’s not far off a win and should run well.
Dangers: 7. Maggie Miss will look to lead again from the wide alley and she’s also a beaten favourite at a short quote from her last appearance. Had her chance at Canterbury on debut but entitled to another chance. 3. Press Box has run a couple of super races and a couple of ordinary ones so it's a matter of which one turns up here. Didn't run on in the same race as Maggie Miss second-up but she may improve. 9. Show Some Leg had some support on debut in the same race as Unguarded and battled on fairly behind the placings. Blinkers on and up in trip so she has some upside to her.
How to play it: Unguarded E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Unguarded hits the line strongly at Warwick Farm on September 19
|Race 3 – 1.55PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
2. Spring Charlie looks bombproof here from the inside gate in a race with only even speed. Took the step up from a Newcastle win when downing a very smart mare at Warwick Farm, both over 1400m. From the inside gate he can track the likely leader So Bizarre and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get the better of that horse inside the 200m. Just whether anything else is coming late.
Dangers: 7. So Bizarre was no match for the promising Girl Tuesday when stretching out to the mile for the first time. Still somewhat of a query at the trip but if she is able to control things as it looks on paper she will give a sight. 8. Makdanife has been disappointing this time in though not disgraced in three of his four recent starts. Had his chance and held ground at Canterbury last time at 1900m. Each-way chance. 1. Omineca was never in the call first-up on a heavy track and the effort is best overlooked. Previous form was sound for a race like this and he did win second-up at a mile last prep on a good track. That’s they key for him so don’t be surprised if he improves.
How to play it: Spring Charlie WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Spring Charlie wins at Warwick Farm on September 19
|Race 4 - 2:30PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
There has to be improvement in 6. Velocita as she kicked off at 1200m this time in as opposed to 1400m at her previous prep which she started a winner. Drops 4kg on a handy enough first-up effort where she settled well off them and worked home okay beaten four lengths. She can take advantage of a good gate with that run under the belt and settle handier. Good each-way chance.
Dangers: 3. Savacool stormed home when the race was all over first-up at Rosehill and I guess there is some small concern about her staying at 1400m given she will probably go back here. Meets Velocita 2.5kg worse for finishing second to her last time they met. Logical danger and it wouldn’t shock to see her pick them up. 5. Invictum Domina found her best when allowed to race on the speed and she toughed it out to win at Warwick Farm (same race as Velocita). She will be among the leaders again here and if she can repeat her latest effort (she was $26 there) she’s right in this. 1. La Chica Bella is another on pacer and expect her to be much more forward in this than in the Tibbie at Newcastle where she drew wide and went back. Won two Saturday races during the winter on the speed and is worth another chance.
How to play it: Velocita E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Velocita’s first-up run at Warwick Farm behind Invictum Domina on September 19
|Race 5 - 3:05PM TAB HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
1. And So It Goes has found a very winnable race for her first run a couple of months. Competitive in better races in two starts since a couple of provincial wins and she shaped up pretty well in a recent trial. She’s a very good short courser, drawn to get a nice run just off them and if she turns up in her best form she’s hard to beat.
Dangers: 5. Discussions enjoyed a good prep back in the autumn that included a Canterbury placing and a first-up win. He worked to the line nicely late in his 801m trial at Warwick Farm recently and is a good each-way chance fresh. 9. Sweetest Eyes is coming through the grades fast this time in and her latest win was easily her most dominant over the 900m at Newcastle where she burst through underneath a short-priced favourite and broke away. Could measure up. 6. All Stand is a little under the odds for mine but freshened up since failing behind Soothing almost two months ago and won a trial in good style so he's worth some thought.
How to play it: And So It Goes WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
And So It Goes runs a close second in a Hawkesbury trial on September 10
|Race 6 - 3:45PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
3. Amanito couldn’t have been more impressive in scoring on this track a few weeks back at his first run in the blinkers. He rounded them up from last and hit the front a fair way out but was only stronger as the line drew near. Should have no worries with the extra distance and drawn to settle a little closer if desired. He can keep up the good work.
Dangers: 4. Cosmologist would be a small query at the 1800m but he’s unbeaten in two starts for Joe Pride and puts himself on the speed. So if he’s not pestered too much up front he could give them plenty to catch. 1. All Too Huiying found himself a bit outclassed in the Shannon Stakes last time so overlook that. Solid effort second-up at Rosehill and he is proven out to this distance range. A bit one paced but he’ll be up there on the speed and in this grade can’t be left out. 11. Royal Stamp didn’t enjoy the heavy track last start but her previous two starts on better ground are good enough for her to be competitive in this. Winner over 2000m at Rosehill in August so she’s at least an each-way hope in this.
How to play it: Amanito E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Amanito proves too strong winning on the Kensington track on September 5
|Race 7 - 4:20PM FLYING HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
The promise of a strong tempo here sets this race up perfectly for 3. Tactical Advantage who is a very promising sprinter. All three runs this prep have been excellent and he was far too good a month ago on the Sunshine Coast. Easy trial since. He’ll land in the first four behind a good speed and has the turn of foot to sprint off it and prove too good.
Dangers: 1. Boss Lane won’t know himself in this company after a placing behind Le Romain two starts ago and a fourth to Redzel last time out. Massive class drop and the 61kg doesn’t bother him. Will relish some speed on too and it’d be a surprise if he’s not somewhere in the finish. 2. Super Too is very fast and she will lead this field clearly. Overlook first-up in Melbourne where she knuckled over at the start and that was the end of her chances. Placed behind Redzel in the Challenge Stakes earlier this year and will give you a good sight at very least. 5. Firsthand is probably not a 1000m horse but he does have a handy first-up record and won’t have to do a lot of early work with an inside gate and Super Too running along up front. Whatever he does he’ll improve on and he’s a place chance fresh.
How to play it: Tactical Advantage WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds).
Tactical Advantage wins easily at the Sunshine Coast on September 1
|Race 8 - 5:00PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
A mini-D-Day here for 3. Renewal who is in a race he can win but it’s up to him to break with them and take advantage of another perfect draw. He was slow first-up but finished well behind Don’t Give A Damn then again messed up the start on a heavy track at Rosehill and that put him out of contention. On paper he’s the winner for mine if he does everything right.
Dangers: 11. Gitan is regularly underestimated and he was excellent running home strongly behind Paret at Rosehill about seven weeks ago. The gap between runs isn’t an issue and he's versatile enough to be on the speed if desired. Each-way. 1. Manhattan Mist got caught up in the stalls first-up and missed the start, ruining any chance he had. Overlook that, he was an $8 chance there and is down a couple of grades into this. Drawn wide but generally goes forward and he is good enough to win this with a bit of luck. 6. Chapelco showed plenty of improvement second-up when leading and run down late at Rosehill last Wednesday. Quick back ups don’t bother him and he’ll be on the speed again here and can give them something to run down.
How to play it: Renewal WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Renewal’s last start fourth at Rosehill on September 8