By Nick Berney
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday’s Canterbury meeting. Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
|Race 1 - 12:50PM TAB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Tricky 2YO race to start with first starters engaged and minimal disclosed heavy track form. 8. Forecaster returns as a gelding and is wound right up for this after four solid hit-outs at the trials. Further, he is coming out of time/sectional merit heats and looks to have come back improved. He brings the best figure relative to the raced horses and maps to get all favours. Each-way.
Dangers: Debutant 2. Gold Revolver has trialled well enough and will be fitter after his latest effort in a 1045m Randwick heat. Expect an aggressive ride early and be hard to run down. Market watch 1. Flying Birds who was ridden out in his latest heat, albeit in an open trial at Hawkesbury. 9. Smartawi was checked/blocked at a critical stage last start at Wagga 20 days ago and should've finished closer. The Gregory Hickman trained galloper brings a race experience edge and ran on ok first-up on a heavy track.
How to play it: Forecaster E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Forecaster runs third in a trial at Gosford on May 18
|Race 2 - 1:25PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
2. Pierossa was solid on debut and hit the line hard to run second at this track 21 days ago. The two-year-old filly wasn’t suited to the slow tempo and was outpaced when the sprint went on. However, once balancing up, she got through her gears and savaged the line. Punter’s Intelligence recorded she ran one of the fastest final 600m splits of the entire meeting in 37.45. The Peter & Paul Snowden trained galloper will undoubtedly improve from that experience and expect her to run on well again with a more genuine tempo anticipated.
Dangers: 1. Lady Harlem got too far back first-up in a high rating race at Scone 11 days ago won by smart two-year-old In Secret. The filly was strong to the line running her final 200m split in 12.43 and giving every indication she would improve second-up over further distance. She can settle closer from the kinder draw, and blinkers go on for the first time. First starter 7. Vienna Princess has trialled well and looks to have style. 3. Veandechance comes out of the same race as Pierossa and was checked/blocked at a critical stage. Market watch 5. Freeways who has trialled well in a fast time/sectional heat at Hawkesbury.
How to play it: Pierossa WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Pierossa runs second at Canterbury on May 4
|Race 3 - 2:00PM FIRST JUSTIFY YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
3. Crazy Train had every chance at Newcastle 11 days ago and never shirked the task to the line. The four-year-old mare who is a consistent type, improves the deeper she gets into a preparation and is at optimal fitness for this assignment. She is rock-hard fit on a backup and revels in testing conditions. It’s worth noting that Sam Clipperton has ridden the mare four times for one win, a second and a third.
Dangers: 6. Tinnie Winnie was a strong winner at Hawkesbury last preparation and then was immediately spelled. After trialling well enough, the four-year-old mare resumes and is proven on rain-affected ground. She can sprint fresh, and James McDonald rides for the first time. 4. Tawfiq Lass got too far back in a slow pace at Scone 12 days ago and ran on strongly. She receives a significant barrier change and can settle closer in the smaller field. 5. I’m Devine was honest first-up at Warwick Farm 14 days ago, but her best figures are on drier ground.
How to play it: Crazy Train WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Crazy Train runs third last start at Newcastle on May 14
|Race 4 - 2:35PM VINERY YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
2. Wild Chap was impressive last start winning by a dominant margin of 4.8 lengths at this track/distance 14 days ago. The five-year-old gelding had every chance but accelerated away from his rivals and went through the line full of energy. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. Further, the decisive margins throughout confirm the quality. The Brett Lazzarini trained galloper gets key factors in his favour, revels in the testing conditions and although he goes up 2.5kg in weight, he has a similar race setup to his last start. In addition, he is in career-best form, and a repeat of either of his last two figures will make him hard to beat.
Dangers: 5. Holstein chased a fast tempo and had slight excuses battling on ok at Gosford 18 days ago. The three-year-old gelding has ratings to put him in the finish, and expect a positive ride with Hugh Bowman going on for the first time. 4. Kirkeby who resumes, has trialled well with an apprentice on in strong closing sectionals. He can sprint fresh, draws kindly, and James McDonald goes on for race day. 1. Mr Tipla got too far back in a slow pace last start and 6. Camaguey can improve third-up over a more suitable distance.
How to play it: Wild Chap WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Wild Chap wins at Canterbury on May 4
|Race 5 - 3:10PM VICTOR LUDORUM @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
8. Cross Talk who resumes is wound up for this event after three trials. He has been impressive, winning in his past two heats running fast time/sectionals relative to the morning. The four-year-old gelding is a proven fresh performer and produced his career peak figure first-up last preparation at Hawkesbury. The G Waterhouse & Adrian Bott galloper led at a moderate pace and sprinted away from his rivals, running one of the fastest final 600m splits of the entire meeting in 35.10. In addition, a repeat of that performance/rating will make him hard to beat. He has a strong starting price profile, proven on rain-affected ground and will roll forward.
Dangers: 9. Speed Legend who returns was not suited first-up last preparation at this track and ran on well running his final 400m/200m splits in 22.64/11.32. The five-year-old gelding has strong form lines and can sprint fresh after one quiet trial. NZ import 6. Bonita Aurelia was checked/blocked at a critical stage at Gosford 11 days ago and looked to be travelling into the race well. The four-year-old mare drops in grade and is a knockout chance. 4. Julian Rock is coming out a proven form race with two subsequent winners and ran one of the fastest final 600m sectionals of the entire meeting at Canterbury 21 days ago in 37.36. Add 5. Mr Magical to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Cross Talk WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Cross Talk wins a trial at Randwick on May 16
|Race 6 - 3:45PM CHINA HORSE CLUB'S THE CHASE HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
1. Cruel Summer returned as a gelding at Newcastle 46 days ago and went to a new level producing a clear career peak figure. He was ultra-impressive and ran very fast time. The three-year-old gelding was wide without cover in a fast tempo and was brave in a duel over the concluding stages to prevail. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and there was a big gap to third to confirm the quality. The Paul Perry trained galloper is proven on rain-affected ground, trialled well in-between runs, and all his peak figures/performances have come in high-pressure races.
Dangers: 7. Jayanthi was brave in defeat last start at Sandown Hillside after sitting outside the leader at a fast pace and battled on well to run third. In addition, the other on-pace runners faded, which further merits her performance. The three-year-old filly will need some luck from the draw but is on an upwards ratings spiral and can improve again. Forgive 8. Prasiolite who has had no luck this preparation, after being checked/blocked severely in both of her starts. She must go in all exotics and is a knockout chance. 6. Oryx raced greenly but broke through for his maiden win at Hawkesbury 20 days ago. 4. Aramis resumes and may have the last shot.
How to play it: Cruel Summer E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Cruel Summer wins at Newcastle on April 9
|Race 7 - 4:20PM PROVEN THOROUGHBREDS HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
Tricky/open race to finish. Leaning towards 8. Hokahey who was not suited last start at Scone 11 days ago after racing wide and getting too far back in a slow tempo. She ran the race’s fastest final 400m-200m split in 11.22 and maintained a strong finishing speed to the line. She is rock-hard fit and can settle closer out to 1900m for the first time.
Dangers: 5. Sprout Wings raced well first-up at Kembla 22 days ago and will undoubtedly improve. 1. Oceanography is consistent and receives blinkers for the first time. 7. Yggdrasil tried hard at this track 21 days ago and expect her to run on hard.
How to play it: Hokahey WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) & Sprout Wings WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Hokahey runs third at Scone on May 14
Best Bet: Race 4 # 2 - Wild Chap
Next Best: Race 2 # 2 - Pierossa
Best Value: Race 6 # 1 - Cruel Summer
Leg 1: 2,5
Leg 2: 8,6,4
Leg 3: 1,7,8,6,4
Leg 4: 8,5,1,7
Combinations = 120