By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Canterbury.
The rail is out 6m and the form has been done for a heavy track.
|Race 1 - 6:00PM SCHWEPPES PLATE (1550 METRES)|
10. Lekvarte is racing like she wants the mile now third up. Have liked the way the daughter of Reliable Man has closed off late in both of her runs this time back, over 1200m at Kembla Grange and then 1400m last start at Rosehill. Hasn’t seen a track any worse than a Soft 5.
Dangers: If Rachel King can overcome the wide draw, 8. African Daisy is an obvious threat. Carted the field up to a tearaway leader at Canterbury last start and was run down by a closer. She ticked the heavy track box there too.
How to play it: Lekvarte WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Lekvarte last start at Rosehill
|Race 2 - 6:30PM THE AGENCY PROPERTY MANAGEMENT HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
Can’t find a lot of speed in this 1900m contest which should see James McDonald offset the wide draw on 1. Black Queen with a positive early ride. Has come into her own once she has got out to 2000m and won on a heavy track two starts ago.
Dangers: Imagine the tactics on battle hardened eight-year-old 8. First Courier will be to get his rivals chasing given he maps as the leader, draws barrier 1 and carries 53.5kg after the claim of Brock Ryan. Can run a race at odds.
How to play it: Black Queen WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Black Queen winning at Wyong last start
|Race 3 - 7:00PM TAB PLATE (1250 METRES)|
6. Rebel Shadow got back in a leader-dominated trace first up at Canterbury two weeks ago. He draws to settle a touch closer, strips fitter second up and we know he gets through wet tracks without an issue. Bumped into two smart horses in his first preparation too.
Dangers: Have been particularly taken by the way 5. Broken Hill has trialled ahead of his debut. The map looks a touch awkward for him, however. Monitor betting confidence. 7. Transformation found the line sweetly first up.
How to play it: Rebel Shadow WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Rebel Shadow first up in similar company
|Race 4 - 7:30PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
1.Sneaky Page has race experience on her side having had two starts in the middle of the year. Her debut was excellent, running second to Sky Command on a heavy track at Warwick Farm. That sets her up well for what lies ahead of her at Canterbury first up
Dangers: Debutant 3. Argentado has trialled particularly well for Godolphin and James Cummings. Draws barrier 1 and finds James McDonald. That does see the Lonhro filly very well found in early betting markets, however.
How to play it: Sneaky Page WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Sneaky Paige’s Warwick Farm debut on a heavy track
|Race 5 - 8:00PM XXXX HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
9. Bacchanalia found 1000m a touch sharp down the straight at Flemington last start but he closed strongly to run fourth behind Profiteer. Maps to get the run of the race here out to 1200, finds James McDonald and is already a heavy track winner at Canterbury.
Dangers: 10. Peregination profiles as the best knockout hope, having run second to Akihiro the last time he was at the races. 8. Dehorned Unicorn faces her toughest test but she put two dominant wins together now at the provincials and deserves a shot at this grade.
How to play it: Bacchanalia WIN ($1.85 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Bacchanalia two back at Kembla Grange
|Race 6 - 8:30PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
5. Cross Talk made a huge impression at his first start in Australia, romping to a five length victory at Hawkesbury on heavy ground. The former Kiwi-trained four-year-old won at Pukekura on debut by a similar margin. Looks capable of charging through the grades.
Dangers: 8. Heza Gentleman is a bulldog. He got his dues last start over this same track and trip last start and warrants plenty of respect again, albeit this race has a lot more depth. He’ll be up top with Cross Talk making his own luck.
How to play it: Cross Talk WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Cross Talk at Hawkesbury last start
|Race 7 - 9:00PM PARRAMATTA KIA EVENING STAR (1250 METRES)|
4. O’Mudgee handles all ground, comes to hand quickly and has the tactical speed to put himself in a spot. There is a lot of speed engaged in this so looking for those that can just park off that before dashing. Looks over the odds in a wide open race.
Dangers: 10. Snippy Fox also fits that profile. The mare is 3:2-1-0 on heavy ground and will be stronger than most at the business end of 1200m. The little knock is that she tends to need the run first up but she has trialled three times ahead of her return.
How to play it: O’Mudgee WIN ($19 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
O’Mudgee’s latest Warwick Farm trial
|Race 8 - 9:30PM BOWERMANS HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
Just how good is the Hawkes-trained mare 3. Jump The Broom? She comfortably beat Toomuchtobear on debut at Geelong before being tipped straight out, yet she returned with an even more dominant win at Moonee Valley, on a Soft 7 surface, two weeks ago.
Dangers: 2. Lady Of Luxury has won three of her five starts, the latest of those at Canterbury. She looked better suited prior to scratchings as the speed doesn’t look quite as frantic now but she is airborne. Can win again.
How to play it: Jump The Broom WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Lady Of Luxury winning at Canterbury last start