By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Friday’s night meeting at Canterbury. Selections based on a soft to heavy track.
|Race 1 – 6:15PM MIRVAC HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
2. Astralis showed plenty of promise in her first prep and was unlucky not to go close on debut on a heavy track. Liked the way she trialled recently at Rosehill. Certainly if she brings her first start effort to this race she will go very close.
Dangers: 6. Deterge didn’t do a lot on a good track at Warwick Farm but go back two starts and he gave a huge sight in front at big odds on a soft 7 here. If he runs up to that he could add some value to the trifecta again. 4. Night Witches produced her best effort first-up at Warwick Farm last month with a solid third at 1400m. Should be okay in the wet on breeding and if she is then she’s a chance to be in the finish. 1. Gaelic has had a number of trials in the last year and took a bit of riding before winning the latest at Randwick. Can't underestimate the stable but place chance on what we've seen.
How to play it: Astralis WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Astralis runs fourth in a trial at Rosehill on January 28
|Race 2 – 6:45PM RADISSON BLU HOTEL HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
5. Rules Don’t Apply hasn’t been exposed to a wet track and is 50-50 on breeding but she’s working up to a win and has a bit going for her in this race. Attacked the line nicely second-up at Kembla then at Warwick Farm last time did a good job to run third beaten a length. If she handles the ground expect her to run well.
Dangers: 2. Hostage Of War was largely untroubled in the lead over 1550m here last week and again looks the leader here. Another 50-50 shot at handling a seriously wet track, if it’s not too bad he shouldn’t have any excuses. 4. Space Is Deep appears to be looking for a staying trip and has been right in the finish of both starts under a mile. Sire was a wet tracker so that’s a head start. Must be respected. 3. War Baron is one win from 15 starts so he’s hard to get too keen on but he’s been just off the placegetters in all three runs back. Has a heavy track placing so can’t leave out completely..
How to play it: Rules Don’t Apply WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Rules Don’t Apply runs third at Warwick Farm on January 27
|Race 3 – 7:15PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
7. Tochi is the up and comer in the field and the likely leader so if she gets through the conditions she’s a big chance to continue her rise. Led all the way to an easy Gosford Class 1 win last time and is right at her top with four runs back. Sire was fine in the wet, dam inconclusive.
Dangers: 2. Corncrake is probably the best horse in the race and if we’re dealing with around a soft 6 he might well be too good. Just not so sure in the wet, he’s never seen it. Super first-up effort over 1550m on a day it was hard to make ground and the distance only helps. Has to be dangerous. 5. Celtic Love probably should have run second to She’s Ideel here last time after running into some traffic early in the straight. She’s more than capable in the wet and when she’s in form she generally holds it. Each-way. 4. Newtown Bluebag has three heavy track placings to his name and has been around the mark in similar races of late. Boxed on okay on a soft 7 here three weeks ago and has a case to be a contender.
How to play it: Tochi E/W ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Tochi wins at Gosford on January 16
|Race 4 – 7:45PM CABRA-VALE DIGGERS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
6. Phemonoe started double figures on debut but it was a super win, getting out late and swamping two subsequent winners on a soft 7 at this track. There’s depth in this race but she looks promising and if that’s the case she’s a good chance to make it two from two.
Dangers: 3. Havin’ Fun was a soft 7 winner first-up last preparation and was competitive in a handy Saturday field at her next start but failed before a spell. She’s trialled up okay, drawn well and if all is in order she will be in the finish. 8. Willowheart led all the way to a nice win on debut back in October though the form out of the race has been patchy. She is a heavy track trial winner and expect she will press forward from the outside. Keep in mind. 2. Rammstein will be a likely leader and can't knock the form out of his all the way win here second-up. This is a solid field but he can give a sight if he gets through the ground.
How to play it: Phemonoe E/W ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Phemonoe wins on debut at Canterbury on January 17
|Race 5 – 8:15PM ZILVER GROUP & DYNASTY HANDICAP (1550 METRES)|
8. Seles has been racing well without winning this time in. Chased home She’s Ideel on a soft 7 here then had her chance but kept coming when fourth in a handy form race at Randwick. Good chance for her to break through.
Dangers: 2. Outback Diva is a small query on a wet track but she’s yet to run a bad race in nine starts. Far too good at Newcastle last time earning a shot at midweek company, drawn out but can’t dismiss. 4. Joigny can be forgiven for a last start failure in Saturday company, her three previous runs were sound and she has a win over Positive Peace last prep too. Not proven if we get to heavy but is in the mix. 1. Muswellbrook wasn't disgraced on a heavy track in stronger grade last time and this race looks like falling away a bit. Capable of showing up.
How to play it: Seles E/W ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Seles runs fourth at Randwick on January 25
|Race 6 – 8:45PM NEWCASTLE CITY KIA EVENING STAR (1550 METRES)|
5. Missybeel has found a nice race given she’s struck top form at her past two starts and does get through a wet track. Romped home second-up then led again and was just touched out at Randwick over the mile, the third horse winning since. Likely leader, or right on pace, here and has to be the one to beat.
Dangers: 2. Dalmatia Prince has come back in outstanding form and only just failed to make it successive wins here a few weeks ago on a soft 7. No harder here, barrier a small concern but hard to knock. 1. Ilwendo has no issues with a wet track and this trip suits him fresh. Probably better around the 2000m mark and fresh form is fair but not prepared to leave him out. 6. Nicochet probably should have won two starts back then boxed on without threatening last time. He’s usually around the mark, handles any conditions and if things go his way he can be in the finish.
How to play it: Missybeel WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Missybeel runs second at Randwick on January 25
|Race 7 – 9:15PM HORDERN PROPERTIES HANDICAP (1250 METRES)|
3. Dio D’Oro would be the best wet tracker going around all night and he gets his chance to post a long overdue win. He ran well first-up on a heavy track, possibly not in the best section, to claim third at Rosehill the back onto a good track last week wasn’t suited. On his last two heavy track runs he’s right in this.
Dangers: 9. Moana Jewel resumed in a very strong form race at Warwick Farm a month ago and wasn’t disgraced. She’s fitter, handles the wet, senior rider on and runner-up both second-up attempts. Good each-way hope. 2. Charretera has been quite costly of late but he does handle the heavy so perhaps worth one more chance. 8. Mr Grumpy has won two of his last four and has reasonable heavy track credentials. Small field now and not out of it.
How to play it: Dio D’Oro WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Dio D’Oro’s first-up third at Rosehill on January 18
|Race 8 – 9:45PM AUSTRALIAN CHINESE JOCKEY CLUB SYDNEY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
8. Prince Mayted is getting fitter with three runs from a spell and has improved with each. He’s generally very good in the wet and he’s more than capable of giving a sight at odds.
Dangers: 5. Perigord has been effective on soft tracks and was a popular second-up winner over this trip at Gosford. Drawn out and has to take the step up in class but rarely runs a bad race. 13. Tikkitala comes through the same race as Prince Mayted from Wyong and gets a nice weight drop. Unproven in heavy but has shown ability on soft ground. 9. Takookacod has put a couple of nice runs together in solid country company at Wagga of late. Wet form is patchy but has some hope in the small field.
How to play it: Prince Mayted E/W ($14 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Prince Mayted's last start run at Wyong on January 26