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Rosehill Winners - Tips For Saturday 20th February

By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.

The rail is out 6m and the form has been done for a soft/heavy track.

Race 1 - 1:00PM CHANDON HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

13. Andermatt hasn’t been sighted at the races since running Anders to less than a length over this same track and trip back in May. Sweet Reply was a further four lengths back in third and the winner of course went on to demolish his rivals in the Rosebud and San Domenico. Andermatt has had two recent trials since then, at Hawkesbury and Kembla Grange, winning the latest of those in good style. James Cummings looks to have the Snitzel colt ready to go and with 52kg on his back and drawn to park midfield in what looks to be a genuinely run affair, he’ll get his chance. This is a Group race disguised as a BM78 but at an each way price he holds plenty of appeal with so much market percentage taken up by 11. Vowmaster.

Dangers: Vowmaster went like a rocket in a recent Rosehill hit out, putting six lengths on his rivals after leading. That was after winning twice in his first racing preparation in arrogant fashion. He looks a special talent but when you’re taking $1.70. It all comes down to price in this case the risk outweighs the reward. 1. On The Lead looks better suited back to 1100m and has held his own in better races than this in the past. 5. Tommy Gold can improve second up, while 3. Fanciful Dream and 12. Only Words go into wider exotics as genuine place hopes.

How to play it: Andermatt EACH WAY ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS


Andermatt's latest barrier trial at Kembla

Race 2 - 1:35PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

7. Commando Hunt closed off strongly when running second to 3. Katgully Red a fortnight ago and out to 1400m on a wet track, he sets up well to go one better. The three-year-old showed a great turn of foot from the 400-200m, as revealed by Punters Intelligence running a race quickest 11.19s. That was back to 1200m off a four week break. His two wins prior to that were both on heavy tracks, and in good style. In the second of those wins he beat Reuben James, a gelding that subsequently beat If You Think So which ties in neatly to winning Highway form. The knock is the start he’s again going to give away from the wide draw but after the emergencies come out, it won’t look anywhere near as daunting.

Dangers: 10. Saint Ambrose was too bad to be true the last time we saw him at the races. That was in an 1800m Highway. The four-year-old has bits and pieces of form that’d measure up in this and he has trialled sweetly this time back. 14. Joey’s Chance isn’t far away from another win and his last couple of runs indicate that he wants the 1400m trip now. He is untried beyond 1300m but confident he’ll relish it. The wet track is more concerning than the distance rise. 9. Blue Missile went straight to front at the Sapphire Coast three weeks ago and ran his rivals into the ground.

How to play it: Commando Hunt EACH WAY ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS


Commando Hunt charging behind Katgully Red last start

Race 3 - 2:10PM NSW JOCKEYS ASSOCIATION HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

If 3. Ziegfeld runs up to his last start second at Longchamp in France at Group Two level over the mile, he’ll win this. He fought out the finish with The Revenant, who won a G1 at Ascot two weeks later. That was on a heavy track so the prospect of a wet surface is no concern, it’s in fact, a plus. The gamble is what this four-year-old does at his first start in Australia under a totally different training regime. The one thing that Godolphin’s best imports tend to have in common is how well they run first up. Think Avilius, Contributer, Hartnell. Hugh Bowman rode the New Approach gelding in his one trial and held him together throughout, running last, yet his work past the post was encouraging. Tactics will be interesting. Ziegfeld has in the past done all of his racing from on top of the speed yet he draws wide.

Dangers: 6. Yao Dash has residual fitness from Queensland and makes his own luck. 1. Quick Thinker, 2. Rondinella and 8. Nimalee are all helped by the wet track but are likely to find 1400m a touch sharp. Maybe Quick Thinker is the exception but 62kg is a fair leveller.

How to play it: Ziegfeld WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


Ziegfeld's quiet barrier trial at Randwick

Race 4 - 2:45PM IRRESISTIBLE POOLS & SPAS MILLIE FOX STAKES (1300 METRES)

2. Positive Peace has a lot in her favour here. Firstly is the set weights plus penalties conditions so despite being a 105 rater, she is only 2kg above the minimum. Secondly, she’ll bounce out and control this race from in front. Four of her last six wins have been when she has led. In the other two wins she settled second and third. Thirdly, she loves wet tracks so whatever Rosehill throws up come Saturday it won’t bother her. The query is how forward she’ll be first up after just one trial (she normally has two). Her second up record is much better than her first up record but it’s a little deceptive as it includes the first two runs of her career which were both shockers and the luckless 11th she ran last preparation when resuming.

Dangers: 3. Subpoenaed looks better suited this week over 1300m, having been scratched from a 1200m race last Saturday. The concern is the same though. Whether there will be enough speed up front for her to gun down the likes of Positive Peace and 4. Asiago. Interestingly, the pair all met in the BM78 a year ago and Positive Peace held off Subpoenaed after she gave away an enormous head start. 8. Le Lude is racing way out of her grade but she has the advantage of a run under her belt and she won it in good style. Had 1. Madam Rouge pegged as a mare that did her best work on top of the ground and when kept on the fresh side. She defied that the last time we saw her winning deep into a preparation on a wet track.

How to play it: Positive Peace WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


Positive Peace winning on a heavy track last preparation

Race 5 - 3:20PM IRON JACK SILVER SLIPPER STAKES (1100 METRES)

Interestingly, North Pacific made his debut in this race last year, running third to Farnan after being well backed. A year on, here is stablemate 8. Dio doing the same thing after two encouraging trials. The son of Zoustar, out of gun mare Solar Charged, which makes him a full relation to Sunlight, has been deep ended in this but Team Hawkes wouldn’t be running him if they didn’t think he was up to it. Nor would they start him if they weren’t confident that he’d handle the wet conditions. With Four Moves Ahead coming out earlier in the week, there doesn’t look to be a great deal of guts to this race. Hence being happy to roll the dice with the debutant at each way odds.

Dangers: 4. Tiger Of Malay needs to improve off his debut to give this a shake but would be surprised if he doesn’t. He trialled well alongside Shaquero and Remarque in mid February. 3. Rocket Tiger remains a tad underrated for Wagga-based trainer Scott Spackman. He doesn’t win by a space but he wins. 2. Zethus and 5. Home Affairs are easy to oppose having fought out a Canonbury Stakes where there was half a length between the top four home and the time was considerably slower than the fillies in the Widden, that said, the way this race has fallen away they’ll both now run well.

How to play it: Dio WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS


Dio's most recent barrier trial

Race 6 - 3:55PM PARRAMATTA CUP (1900 METRES)

9. Dadoozdart’s two runs back this time don’t look like much on paper but tipping Team Hawkes have him exactly where they want him third up back to Sydney and on the seven day turnaround. First up over 1400m at Caulfield his late splits were deceptively quick, despite running 6th of eight while last start the five-year-old raced in restricted room before doing his best work through the line over the mile. There’s every chance he found the Melbourne tracks a touch too firm too. All four of his wins, which came in Ireland before being imported, were on soft and heavy tracks. This will be the first time he has seen a wet track in Australia. Loved his runs at the backend of last preparation behind the likes of Probabeel and Kolding suggesting he was a horse to follow over the autumn. His two ‘hidden’ runs this time back just means we’re getting a better price.

Dangers: Front running stayer 11. Sacramento is chasing three wins on the bounce and warrants respect as he races through the grades but this is by far his hardest test to date this preparation and he has come up his shortest price yet. Kris Lees has won this race the last two years running with 1. Mustajeer back to defend his title. He didn’t come up last preparation but gets wet conditions to suit.

How to play it: Dadoozdart WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 7 - 4:35PM CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB HOBARTVILLE STAKES (1400 METRES)

4. Peltzer is unbeaten on soft and heavy tracks. That perfect record was kept intact first up in the Eskimo Prince over 1200m. He was entitled to win given he stalked a slow speed but what stands out from his sectionals is his strength through the line. Punters Intelligence reveals his last 200m of 11.99s was a length superior to anything else in the field. That sets him up perfectly out to 1400m second up, again on a wet track. The So You Think colt also has in his arsenal the ability to race on speed. 12. Easy Campese looks the leader and looking at the map, Tim Clark could have Peltzer sitting outside of him. Peltzer has been pegged as a ‘Randwick specialist’ but his three runs at Rosehill have all been on Good tracks so don’t read too much into his record on his home deck.

Dangers: 3. North Pacific raced keenly early and was found to have been galloped on in the Eskimo Prince after jumping an even money favourite. The last time he ran over 1400m at Rosehill was in the Golden Rose where he just missed to Ole Kirk. Rising Kiwi star 1. Aegon has won four from four and although he drops back in trip, the wet track negates that. 8. The Elanora shouldn’t be underestimated given the ease of his latest two wins.

How to play it: Peltzer WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 8 - 5:15PM SHARP EXTENSIVE IT HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

Godolphin have plenty of success placing horses out of their grade to take advantage of the 52kg minimum with Rachel King in the saddle. Enter 12. Emanate . The four-year-old is only a 78 rater in a 94 rating race. She was beaten by The Face, subsequently second to Pelzter, in a BM78 at Randwick four weeks ago but travelled deep throughout and her two preparation career to date suggests that she improves sharply second and third up into her campaign. By Lonhro out of Guelph, she lacks nothing breeding wise and there was plenty to like about how she strung three together at the backend of last preparation once she had a couple of runs under her belt. She could still be half a run short but the light weight on her back and clever placement could see her still get away with this.

Dangers: There’s no shortage of speed engaged which will play into the hands of 1. Handle The Truth . He was luckless first up last preparation and may have rolled Athiri if the breaks went his way. It was a similar case three preparations ago. His first up record is already 7:4-0-0 but could easily read 7:6-0-0. He handles the wet too. He’s a big price. 10. Black Magnum should have beaten 7. Spaceboy back in July last year when the pair clashed. He is another one that races well fresh, albeit his form can be a little patchy. His best has him somewhere in the finish here though. 4. Munitions has been gelded after finishing midfield on his Australian debut back in October and trialled sweetly.

How to play it: Emanate WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


Emanate running third first up

Race 9 - 5:55PM CLEANAWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

16. Wheelhouse needs a couple of scratchings to make the field but if he happens to, it’s a perfect race for him to transition from midweek maiden winner straight to Saturday benchmark level. The three-year-old profiles like a horse that’ll be better again over further this preparation on the strength of his finish on the Kensington track first up so the son of Pierro could announce himself further as an autumn sleeper. He’ll need to earn his spot in better races though, starting here. He beat The Denzel and Nearly Fine last start and they’ve franked the form since albeit in maiden company. There doesn’t look to be a stack of speed engaged which will allow Brenton Avdulla to punch up from the inside draw and hold a spot.

Dangers: It was hard to miss the eye catching trial 4. Lackeen produced at Randwick, which was our first look at the Godolphin import. The son of Shamardal is untapped with just four starts to his name. The knock is where he gets to from the draw in a race lacking tempo and whether he finds the 1400m a touch sharp. James McDonald sticking after the trial is a good push in itself though. 2. Starspangled Rodeo is close to another win having just run out of time at Canterbury last start. Swapping that tight track for Rosehill and getting out to 1400m are in his favour. Just needs to find cover to ensure he settles. 14. Global Quest is over the odds.

How to play it: Wheelhouse WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS


Wheelhouse impressed in winnng first up

All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday

 

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