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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Listed $200,000 Precise Air Winter Stakes (1400m) at Rosehill on Saturday.

1. Robusto (Bjorn Baker): One of the big question marks in the race. Tough to get a line on how well he’s going given he’s come out of the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap first-up where he raced handy off a wide gate and didn’t fire. He struck a real purple patch in the second half of his spring campaign chasing Private Eye home on a soft 7 at Rosehill before winning The Ingham. You could probably also say he’s not really a first-up horse so he’ll be better for the run. Drawn to give himself every chance to find his form.

Robusto (Pic: Steve Hart)

2. Welwal (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Very hit and miss but what he does like is a wet track so he finds conditions to suit. He’s not helped by a negative racing pattern but as he’s done in all his recent runs he finds the line, just a bit too late. You’d have to think the Headley Grange form is good going into this race and he unwound strongly to finish about half a length astern of the in-form galloper and that was on a soft 5 in the Civic. Good chance to fire here in a race that will be truly run in ground he likes.

3. Bases Loaded (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Wasn’t the best away in the Civic so found himself well off the pace which is unusual for his style. Potentially in need of the run too after not having raced since Everest Day. Wider draw is better for his on pace pattern so he’ll be able to come across with the speed drawn outside him and find a place closer to the lead. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to lead though. Expect him to improve on what he showed fresh.

4. Accredited (Joe Pride): If the track stays heavy come Saturday morning there’s a chance he’ll not be lining up so it’ll be an interesting call to make. His only heavy track run was a fourth behind Cool Jakey around this time last year at the end of his prep and he just boxed on. He certainly ran well in the Takeover Target on a soft 7 and was back to his best winning at Randwick two weeks ago where he had the kind of run he’d be likely to receive in this race. If he’s here it’s a vote of confidence from the stable in how he will handle the ground, but it’s still a risk factor.

5. Phearson (Brad Widdup): There’s a chance this race could pan out similarly to the Civic Stakes where he drifted back and sat wide and was never really in the contest. If he could revert to his old ways of showing some early speed he’d be a chance to follow Whinchat over and find a competitive position but on the evidence of his four runs this time in he doesn’t have it these days. More than capable on his day but things don’t seem to be going his way at present.

6. Contemporary (James Cummings): We’re closing on a year since his last win and it’s fair to say on what he produced two weeks ago behind Accredited he’ll struggle to win this. Sat right on the back of the speed and went backwards when the pressure went on, no excuses found in the stewards report either. Ran on okay on a soft 7 behind In Flight prior to that but he has to run 1400m now on a heavy. So it’s going to take a big leap of faith in him.

7. Estadio Mestalla (Joe Pride): His first-up run was a pass mark and you could make excuses for him second-up where he had a wide run in the Civic Stakes. But you can also conclude that he’s not quite going as well as his last two preps when he was a model of consistency. It’s always eye raising when Joe Pride throws the blinkers on one of these honest geldings. Drawn alongside the likely leader and it wouldn’t shock to see him improve, as much as he needs to.

8. Whinchat (David Pfieffer): Which one are we going to get this time? He was brilliant first-up off a long break at Scone then missed the start second-up as favourite and was always well back. Much more like it in the Civic but he did get into a bit of a speed battle up front with Cool Jakey. Draw suits him and his hopes would be enhanced if Cool Jakey doesn’t gain a start. Have to take him on trust but his best is more than enough.

9. Grand Impact (SCRATCHED).

10. Thunderlips (Bjorn Baker): One of the in-form horses in recent months and he’s won three of his last four to earn a shot at a stakes race for the first time since he placed in the Canberra Guineas last year. He was well ridden and produced a big burst to score at Randwick a month ago on a soft 7 then his win last week was excellent as he chased down a runaway leader in Zouatica. Loves a wet track, drops significantly in weight, draws to get the stalking run again. If this race was run on paper he’d be the likely winner.

11. Astero (Matthew Smith): One week away from his last success and he arrives at this race right at his top after four runs back and a promising third at big odds in the Civic. He found the line well from better than midfield in that event and this race could be similarly run. One of a number of horses in this race who could be a major player if the race pans out to favour him.

Whinchat (Pic: Steve Hart)

12. Diamond Diesel (Adam Duggan): It’s been a while now since he’s found his best form and it appears he’s in the wilderness for the moment. He was back and wide behind Accredited second-up and didn’t run on to any great degree which is a concern going up to 1400m now, a trip he’d normally appreciate. Hard to make a decent case for him at the moment.

13. Green Fly (Anthony & Sam Freedman): When he’s on, he could win just about anything at this level. Generally a consistent type, he’s been known to produce a big spike on occasion as we saw first-up back in April where he mowed Cool Jakey down to win on a heavy track over this course. His two subsequent runs have been okay, he’s run on but not been a threat. Six weeks since his last run could be the key and if they’re able to run on from midfield or worse he’ll be doing that strongly.

14. Ruby Flyer (Brad Widdup): Wet track credentials would make him an intriguing runner had it not been for that wide gate. We know it’ll be truly run but with an off pace pattern he’s likely to be giving away a solid head start. He did just that in his two runs in the spring that followed a big Randwick win last June on a heavy track. Two trials have been soft, he can run well fresh but will need some luck.

15E. Saltcoats (Chris Waller): Lightly raced and has a consistent record from his 13 starts. Developed into more a staying type last time in with wins at 1800m and 2000m before placing in the Australia Day Cup at 2400m. A wet track won’t worry him, he’s yet to win fresh but often runs well though this will be the first time he’s resumed off a staying preparation. He’ll improve on whatever he does.

16E. Cool Jakey (Joe Pride): Has a huge part to play in the outcome of this race if he gains a start as he’s a noted wet tracker who likes to run along out in front. Which makes him competition for Whinchat in the early stages as he was in the Civic where he came off second best. That was on a soft 5, however, and he’s much more comfortable on heavy ground. It’s likely he’ll find the fence first and then things get interesting. Not beyond him to give a big sight.

17E. Testator Silens (Joe Pride): He’s been a big disappointment in his past two starts after his first two runs back promised so much over unsuitable trips. He was never in the hunt two runs back then last week raced a lot closer to Zouatica who ran them along and strung the field out and didn’t have a lot left. Likes a wet track so that’s a plus for him but he has to find his best and he’s not won now since January last year.

18. Cigar Flick (SCRATCHED).

SPEED MAP: It's highly unlikely that this will be slowly run. Whinchat, assuming he jumps, will come across and look to lead and if Cool Jakey is in the field he'll do his best to hold him out. That'll create good speed as it did in the Civic. If Cool Jakey isn't there Whinchat will still run along. Robusto should hold a forward spot from the inside gate, Bases Loaded will be more forward this time while Accredited (if he runs) and Thunderlips can find trailing spots behind the speed. Contemporary could be handy. Anything else featuring in the early speed would be a big change of pattern.

SELECTIONS:
10 THUNDERLIPS
2 Welwal
1 Robusto
13 Green Fly

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting