By Ray Hickson
Ray Hickson’s tips and insights for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Another strong midweek program with eight winners to be found!
The track will be Good and the rail is in the 3m position.
|Race 1 - 12:50PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
A small concern about where she’s going to get to but Longmu had ‘back me next time’ written all over her in her fast finishing second behind stablemate Molten at Kembla Grange. The 1400m start is one of the fairest going around with that long straight run to the home turn so hopefully she doesn’t drift too far out of it early. Definitely looked a 1400m-plus horse first-up and in an open race she’s a very good chance.
Danger: A few of them! Kookabaa was competitive without winning in his first prep in the autumn and his recent trial win was impressive. Cuba hit the line strongly fresh then outclassed in the Up And Coming. Blinkers on, well drawn, up in trip – he has every chance.
How to play it: Longmu E/W ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Longmu charges into second at Kembla Grange – August 19
|Race 2 - 1:25PM CASINO PRINCE@VINERY PLATE (1200 METRES)|
Betting might sort this race out closer to start time with plenty of trial form to dissect. Settled on Fresh Start who showed improvement in his second trial this time in when runner-up at Randwick after sitting wide. He didn’t wear blinkers in either trial but they are on for this race and that’s a good sign.
Danger: Our Mantra raced on the pace in each start last time in and kept fighting but he sat off the speed and found the line well in his recent trial. Likely to be ridden that way here and he looks hard to beat. Whether he wants further is the question. Also respecting stablemates Improvise and Palmateer whose trials have been sound as well.
How to play it: Fresh Start E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds)
Fresh Start finishing second in his Randwick trial - August 21
|Race 3 - 2:00PM MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
I Am Serious lost her unbeaten record at this track a couple of weeks back but fairly confident she can go one better this time around. Wound up in no man’s land from the wide gate but her best work was at the finish and she’ll be better for the run. This time she has the inside alley in a seven horse field and if she’s above average as she looks she should put them away.
Danger: Canberra is coming through the grades nicely at the provincials and is entitled to be a little shorter in the market with Hugh Bowman on board. No reason why she won’t measure up to midweek level. and it wouldn’t surprise to see Alluvion was outclassed in the Show County but would be right in this if she could repeat her second to Mana at Randwick prior to that.
How to play it: I Am Serious WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
I Am Serious runs second at Warwick Farm - August 23
|Race 4 - 2:35PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
Realise Potential hasn’t really been one of my horses but there was plenty to like about his last start second to Nictock over the same course last month. He has blinkers back on and a soft draw and drops 2kg. I think he does need his run timed to perfection but this is his chance.
Danger: Beau Tirage is a likely big improver down sharply in class after going around in a couple of very handy Saturday races since a spell. Expecting him to go forward and could give a big sight at odds. Gadfly was a popular winner second-up and has earned another shot at this level.
How to play it: Realise Potential WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Realise Potential running second to Nictock at Warwick Farm – August 23
|Race 5 - 3:10PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
This race promises to be a very good form reference. Intrinsic should be unbeaten but for plenty of bad luck when box seating at Rosehill back in June. First trial back was basically just a gallop and she was asked for a bit more second time around at Gosford. It’s no gimme and she is short enough but she might be a smart one and is the horse to beat.
Danger: Memento was outclassed at G1 level but did place behind Tulip and Alizee back in March following a couple of city maiden placings. Liked her trial at Randwick on August 31 and she worries me a little. As does Jessamin who beat Memento at her only start and was another to catch the eye finding the line in her recent trial.
How to play it: Intrinsic WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds)
Intrinsic’s luckless second at Rosehill – June 3
|Race 6 - 3:45PM #THERACES HANDICAP (2200 METRES)|
It’s always dangerous jumping on a last start maiden winner coming to town but Social Element did a very big job in winning at Newcastle at his first start. He stepped away slowly and made a midrace move up onto the speed then forged clear late. Won’t want to make an early error here but he has more upside than any other and could measure up.
Danger: Bon Equus was also responsible for a decent effort at his last start when third over this course on August 23. He was kept quite busy in the lead and didn’t get any breathers but still stayed on until the closing stages. With a more economical run here he’s an each-way chance.
How to play it: Social Element WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds); save on Bon Equus E/W ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Social Element’s tough win at Newcastle – August 26
|Race 7 - 4:20PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Regent has only had two starts and is somewhat in the deep end here at a short price but I really couldn’t go away from him after a decent amount of trying. He won a good form race on debut then not disgraced at G3 level at his only other start. Second trial was a nice one and the Godolphin three-year-olds have enjoyed success against older horses at midweek level of late.
Danger: Red Knot might be over the odds, especially with Hugh Bowman engaged again. Resumed in a solid Highway at Rosehill and considering he’s not an 1100m horse his effort was good enough. Extra trip helps and his second-up record is much better too. Definitely an each-way chance. Onslaught also appeals at double figures, while he was only fair last time at Newcastle the start prior he was close up at Canterbury.
How to play it: Regent WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds); save on Red Knot E/W ($15 TAB Fixed Odds)
Regent’s Warwick Farm trial - August 25
|Race 8 - 4:55PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
You could do worse than have something each-way on Arigold who has hit form at his last couple of starts. No match for Up ‘N’ Rolling and Notio two starts back, both have won since, then was nailed in the last stride in a similar race here on August 23. Again has the rails and I don’t think it’s any stronger so if he can repeat the effort he should be in the finish in a race where I think the favourite is a fair bit under the odds.
Danger: Tenorino has another crack at the mile after successive handy efforts over 1400m here. He had a checkered passage early in the straight last start and from a soft draw here he should run on strongly again. Concede Royal Navy could be open to improvement on his first-up fifth in the same race as Tenorino but he did have every chance and just held his ground.
How to play it: Arigold E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Arigold’s narrow defeat at Warwick Farm - August 23