Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. There are winners to be found for seven races!
The track is in the Soft range and the rail is out 5m from the 1000m to the winning post, 3m the remainder and 5m in 1400m.
|Race 1 - 12:40PM PLUCK@VINERY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Al Mah Haha was snagged back to last on debut over this same track and trip but worked really strongly to the line to run fourth behind Addictive Nature. They broke the class record that day and the winner is now being talked about as a Golden Rose player. Staying at 1100m is some query, especially being by Al Maher but in a smaller field and from barrier 1, the now three-year-old shouldn’t be too far away. There are a few spruiked debutants in the field but if Al Mah Haha can reproduce his outstanding first-up effort, he’ll take some holding out.
Danger: I’m A Legend has been trialling well for Les Bridge and shapes as the danger. Has shown early speed so might be able to scoot across and offset the wide draw. He looked to have the better of Key To Glory when they met at the trials two back.
How to play it: Al Mah Haha WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Al Mah Haha’s eye-catching debut
|Race 2 - 1:20PM THE EVEREST IS COMING HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Songlike was heavily supported at Hawkesbury first-up after trialling in outstanding fashion. Despite being rolled at $1.80, suspect the winner Marble is a very smart colt. Songlike comes straight to town but is back to her own sex and has a run under the belt, unlike any of her rivals. Bjorn Baker is astute at placing his horses so respect that he is here at the midweeks and didn’t decide to knock off a provincial maiden. This is a very hot little fillies race and will no doubt tell many trainers just where they sit in terms of the spring carnival pecking order.
Danger: Alizee trialled brilliantly at Rosehill but it’s something we’ve become accustomed to seeing with her. Is already Group Three placed and Godolphin have very high hopes for her. She needs to stand up here. Acqume was beaten by only Gunnison on debut and has trialled nicely too. She’s up to this.
How to play it: Songlike EACH WAY ($8 TAB Fixed Odds)
Alizee’s Rosehill trial – July 18
|Race 3 - 2:00PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Single And Free was disappointing first-up at Hawkesbury but she only had the one public trial and never looks completely comfortable over 1000m. She is much better suited out to 1200m albeit against city class company. She has drawn a lovely gate to stalk the speed and with a record of four wins from eight starts, has to be respected. As does the fact that Angela Davies places her here second-up. At the odds on offer she is worth another chance.
Danger: Mariquita will be closing hard it’s just whether back to 1200m and around Warwick Farm will give her enough time to reel in her rivals. Her most recent effort when a luckless fourth behind Insensata is a strong reference for this.
How to play it: Single And Free WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Mariquita ($4.20)
Single And Free’s Hawkesbury resumption
|Race 4 - 2:35PM TAB HANDICAP (2200 METRES)|
More Moet was a strong winner at Kembla Grange last start out to 2000m and gives the impression he’ll relish even further. His past shows that he only gets warm over the staying trips with both of his career wins coming over 2000m. He is in the Snowden camp so should get every chance to progress to city grade. Don’t have a great deal of confidence in this race but at least this four-year-old has some staying upside.
Danger: Queen Of Heights never figured first-up when suffering a chequered path in the straight. She was beaten a long way but Vaucluse Bay and Arbeitsam have franked the form since. Big improver. There are a lot of unknowns about Hurricane Harbour so wary of him.
How to play it: More Moet WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
More Moet’s strong Kembla win
|Race 5 - 3:10PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Trust Me gets the nod after a sound effort at Warwick Farm last start in a similar race. He has his chance there after box-seating but Akasaki was too strong from the front while I Can Rock closed hard to nab second. Prior to that he was second to Reach For Heaven. This now four-year-old took his time breaking his maiden but has gone right on with the job since, recording another two wins from six starts. He’s no star but he fits into this tricky race with the right profile to be in the finish.
Danger: Bright Future has enjoyed a very consistent campaign and was a solid winner ay Wyong last start beating What Could Be. She maps to get all the favours. Nick On The Run wasn’t too far away from Trust Me last start and is a must for multiples.
How to play it: Trust Me WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Trust Me’s last start third
|Race 6 - 3:45PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Nat King Cu was nosed out in a bob of the heads at Warwick Farm two starts back with Petrossian since running second to Boss Lane in the July Sprint. The nine-year-old then ran a luckless third again at Warwick Farm. In fact, this will be his sixth straight run on his home patch for Jason Coyle, a stable in terrific form. A case can be made for most of the runners engaged here but happy to play the old boy at double figure odds.
Danger: Metallic Crown races well at Warwick Farm and his Rosehill effort last start wasn’t too bad. He has drawn off the track but that might force Glyn Schofield’s hand to push on to take up the running. Suspect that’s the only way he’ll ever add to his three win total.
How to play it: Nat King Cu WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Nat King Ku’s second to Petrossian
|Race 7 - 4:20PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Tenorino stepped out for the growing Clare Cunningham yard for the first time at Kembla and he should’ve just about won. He was bailed up on the fence and went to the line largely untested. He should see plenty of clear air from barrier 15 here though! Jason Collett will need to be right on his game from out there but with Tivoli Street also drawn wide, there might be the opportunity to tag him into the race. The speedy Street Pursuit joins them out wide but should press on which will generate some speed.
Danger: Tivoli Street was ridden quietly last start and found the line nicely to break through. Not getting too carried away just yet though. Ella A Walking some hope if he sneaks into the field as second emergency.
How to play it: Tenorino WIN ($23 TAB Fixed Odds)
Tenorino’s luckless Kembla effort