Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s meeting at Warwick Farm. The track is rated Good 4.
|Race 1 – 1:25PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
2. Brilliant Choice hit a big flat spot coming to the turn (Punters Intel shows he ran the slowest 600m-400m of the race) at his debut at Canterbury but rallied strongly to hit the lead before being run down by a promising type in Maid Of Heaven. He’ll come on from that effort and note the blinkers go on to sharpen him up. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t lead, or at least be stalking the leader, and be the one they have to get past 100m out.
Dangers: 1. Adana has had two starts at the Farm for two close seconds, both in maiden company, and his two failures have come up in Saturday or Group class. Back to a maiden, blinkers on, and he’s entitled to be in the finish somewhere or I’d suggest he won’t be a colt for too much longer. 6. Vulcan is an interesting runner, making his debut on the back of a couple of recent trials. Safely held in the first then appeared to be travelling well when winning at Randwick last week. Doesn’t need to be a superstar to be competitive here and watch for any support. 5. Vega One only has one placing from five starts but he hasn’t run a bad race and has been asked to take on much better quality than what he meets here. The question mark is what distance is suitable for him as he’s consistently got back and finished off late. No surprise to see him in the finish.
How to play it: Brilliant Choice WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds).
Brilliant Choice is grabbed late by Maid Of Heaven on debut at Canterbury on August 8
|Race 2 - 2:00PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
With the scratching of Dealmaker I'm a little more confident with 3. Matowi despite jumping quickly from the 1250m on debut at Canterbury where he was clearly outsprinted in the race won by Maid Of Heaven. He ran the third fastest last 600m of 34.59 (Punters Intel) behind the first two home. Being by a Cox Plate winner out of a Stravinsky mare he’ll be looking for the extra trip. He was a big drifter first-up so if he’s solid in betting this time it’ll suggest we’ve gone the right way.
Dangers: 2. Tarka has also been off the scene for a while with about six weeks since his dominant win over this course back on July 11. He was ridden positively there and defied a huge betting drift. I expect him to be prominent here. 5. Everard sprouted wings late to arrive in time at Scone second-up at 1300m, it was actually amazing she was able to pick up the winner given where she was 100m out. Has a couple of city placings to her name over shorter trips. Her winning chances have increased a bit with the scratching and she is certainly the next best. Take your pick of the remainder.
How to play it: Matowi WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Keep an eye on Matawi sticking on along the inside on debut at Canterbury on August 8
|Race 3 – 2:35PM ATC HONG KONG TOUR SPRINT (1000 METRES)|
I’m expecting this race to be run somewhere close to frantic pace and it should allow 8. Deity the chance to slot in just off the pace from near the outside, though it’s more about getting cover than one off the fence given it’s a straight run to the turn. Plenty to like about her first campaign and she held a smart one in Demerara quite well in winning an open class trial. Interestingly, Hugh Bowman was declared on this mare at acceptances but either couldn’t ride her at 55kg or it was an error. Regardless, Tom Berry rode her in the trial and she’s a very good chance.
Dangers: 4. Excellent Design has also trialled up well for her first-up run since an all the way win over 1200m here back on Australia Day. It’ll be interesting to see where she ends up in the run from gate two as I can’t see her holding out a few of the speedsters engaged. If she gets the breaks, though, she’s a big threat. 3. Miss Liffey showed she’s back to her best with a fast finishing win at Wagga in a good quality sprint with 62kg on her back. Runner-up in a similar race to this back in February and she’s more than capable of taking a hand in the finish. 1. Once More A Lady is fitter for two runs back from a spell and she was expected to improve sharply second-up at Rosehill, according to the betting, and she battled on fairly. All three career wins have come at this track and she’s in the mix back in grade.
How to play it: Deity WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Deity scores a handy win in a Warwick Farm trial on August 10
|Race 4 – 3.10PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (2200 METRES)|
This one is anyone’s race. Going with one of the Chris Waller brigade in 6. Cormac who was very brave in defeat in a fast run race here three weeks ago then he backed up three days later and was ridden upside down and duly dropped out. Much better suited here and on his two runs at the Farm he’s the one to beat for mine but play him each-way as he’s only won the one from 13.
Dangers: 9. Chain Of Fools strikes me as an improver. Found it too short first-up then jumped 600m and was running on pretty well at Canterbury a couple of weeks ago just behind the placings. Both runs here have been good, drawn well and she could settle a bit closer so no surprise to see her in the finish of an open race. 2. More Moet finally put it together when out to a staying trip as he toughed it out to win at Kembla over 2400m. Now that he’s found his form again and the tracks are still dry there’s no reason to think he won’t hold his form. 5. Corinth is a model of consistency and he hit the front momentarily before being run down at Canterbury last start. Again drawn wide so he could get back again but on the score of honesty he’s in the mix.
How to play it: Cormac E/W ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Cormac runs a game second at Warwick Farm on August 1
|Race 5 – 3.45PM RIBCHESTER NEW TO DARLEY MILE (1600 METRES)|
The market tells you this is a wide open race. I liked the first-up run of 6. Makdanife at Canterbury a couple of weeks ago, he chased hard in the last 200m after looming up. While he’s probably looking for 2000m I think there’s enough pace here, even with the scratchings, to bring him right into it at the business end.
Dangers: 1. Amanito warmed up when the race was all over when resuming at 1400m here three weeks ago. He was $19 into $12 there so something was expected of him and he did run a nice race. Fitter and can only be improved. Beat Jolly Honour over this course on Australia Day and if he runs up to that he’ll be in the finish. 3. Love Shack Baby raced on the speed and cleared out as you like to see $1.85 shots do when scoring at Wyong in a Class 2. If he gets any control he could take running down. 7. Excelsior has battled a bit in Saturday company in two runs since an excellent second to Seahampton at Randwick. If he runs up to that performance he's capable of being competitive.
How to play it: Makdanife E/W ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Makdanife runs a closing third at Canterbury on August 8
|Race 6 - 4:20PM EVEREST CARNIVAL HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
I’ve had the eye on 7. Bull Market in his two runs back over shorter trips and he’s attacked the line like a horse closing right in on a win. He steps to 1400m now and has found a race that looks to have enough pressure to keep the leaders rolling and give him the chance to finish over the top. He won’t get too far back from a handy gate but the way I see it he only needs the speed to be enough to allow him to roll into the race and flatten out. While it’s interesting that Kerrin McEvoy has ridden him in both starts back and rides Scream Park here, James McDonald did trial him so I don’t see the change as an issue. Looks a good race for him.
Dangers: 10. Seaglass went under as favourite second-up here three weeks ago but had excuses after a wide run. Excellent effort first-up at Randwick in Saturday company and with an easier run she’s capable of atoning. 4. Impasse has found his form again after a couple of ordinary ones and he had the run of the race when scoring easily here in the race Seaglass started favourite. Will require the breaks in running from the wide gate (the 1400m races start on the course proper not in the chute for the time being) but is hard to leave out of the main chances. 11.Dancers just failed first-up at Kembla then midfield behind Bergerac at Randwick so will appreciate the class drop. Her form is a bit mixed but she’s been thrown into some good races and with just the 51.5kg she’ll have every chance to get into the finish.
How to play it: Bull Market WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Bull Market hits the line well again second-up at Canterbury last Wednesday
|Race 7 - 4:55PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
I wonder what price 4. Coruscate would be had he drawn, say, eight and not 16? He is a go-forward horse to a degree and in his favour is there’s a bit of potential speed drawn out near him. The theory goes if James McDonald can get a nice tag into the race just behind the speed I can see him finishing strongly down the outside as he did in his recent trial at Rosehill. Well placed in this field and with just a bit of good fortune he’ll take plenty of stopping.
Dangers: 1. Man Of Choice is a quality galloper on his day and is now with Brad Widdup. Contested the Provincial Championship series last time in and prior to that he was a solid Saturday class galloper. Liked his latest trial at Gosford and despite the weight he’s a serious chance, particularly if he presents in good order. 9. Under The Thumb was a bit unlucky in a Highway at the Farm back in February and his first-up run at Coffs Harbour was a sound one after getting a long way back. I’m worried he could be buried from the inside alley but he has Bowman to ride and must be given due consideration. 6. Ruthless Agent is silly odds at $31 if he can regain his best form this time in. He’s run some very good races in better company than this field and is effective when fresh. No official trials this time in so if there is some specking for him at odds he could surprise.
How to play it: Coruscate WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Coruscate finds the line well in his trial at Rosehill on August 7