By Ray Hickson
Ray Hickson’s tips and insights for Monday’s Warwick Farm public holiday meeting. Eight races on the card and a few very interesting runners.
The track will be Good and the rail is true.
|Race 1 – 1:20PM ATC OWNERS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Tricky little race to start off with and I’d like to see some confidence in betting around 2. Guipure. The reason being that she’s had a couple of very quiet trials and hasn’t been let go at all so it’s hard to get a good guide on how she’s tracking. Did enough at big odds, and on the worst part of the track, at her debut behind stablemate Gaulois back in June on a heavy track to suggest there’s some ability there.
Dangers: 3. Improvise appeared to have every chance in both starts at this track though she hasn’t been beaten far. I’d suggest if she’s going to win one in town this time in it might be this one. 1. Lucky Louie didn’t get warm until it was all over at Newcastle when resuming but did finish quite well late and could be open to improvement. Her best is good enough to win this race.
How to play it: Quinella Guipure & Improvise.
Guipure’s second trial at Warwick Farm – September 22
|Race 2 - 1:55PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
I loved the latest trial of 2. Deprive at Randwick back on Monday, he cruised home late behind the placings and I definitely wanted to be on him on debut. Granted there probably are easier maidens around than this one but I’m sticking. I like that he’s starting off at 1300m so he won’t get run off his feet and I just think if he runs up to the excellent trial he has to be right in the finish.
Dangers: 3. Gresham really worries me as he has the right form around horses like Assimilate, Dracarys and company to make him the horse to beat here. He may not be suited coming back in distance but Hugh Bowman rides him for the first time and if he runs well his spring might not be over. 1. Hong Qigong really disappointed last start but on his eye-catching first-up effort he’s entitled to another chance.
How to play it: Deprive WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Deprive’s eye-catching Randwick trial – September 25
|Race 3 - 2:30PM ATC MEMBERS MILE (1600 METRES)|
The impressive nature of 6. Lead Choreographer’s first-up win makes him very hard to go past despite a superficial rise in grade. He won over the same course in a BM73 and because this race is a BM82 he drops in weight but takes on a race of virtually equal depth. If not less. Sure to be fitter and while his second-up record isn’t flash this is his race to lose.
Danger: 5. Chapelco gave a good sight in front behind a couple of handy types in The Avenger and Regent at 1400m and is likely to be on the pace again. If he runs out a strong mile he could take some running down. 1. Black On Gold won first-up last time in and the mile definitely suits. Wouldn’t surprise to see him in the finish but I reckon the stablemate should have the jump on him here.
How to play it: Lead Choreographer WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Lead Choreographer wins first-up at Warwick Farm – September 20
|Race 4 - 3:05PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (2200 METRES)|
With the scratching of 1. Alward it does leave this race wide open. I'm left with his stablemate 5. Exoteric who has found his form in the past month and was a strong winner over this course on September 20. If he can hold that form then he's sure to be in the finish here though, as mentioned, my confidence levels aren't super high.
Danger: 6. Not A Gypsy disappointed behind Alward at Rosehill but he’s a lot better than that and may be worth another chance. Certainly his second-up effort would be good enough to see him in the finish. 4. Doukhan had to do a bit of work in the Newcastle Cup before weakening right out of it. Fitter for the two runs back and he did run on quite well when resuming behind Up 'N' Rolling. Gets a good chance.
How to play it: Exoteric & Not A Gypsy Quinella.
Exoteric wins at Warwick Farm – September 20
|Race 5 - 3:40PM 12 DAYS TO THE TAB EVEREST SPRINT (1000 METRES)|
1. Kaepernick has never really been one of my horses but I concede he sets up well for this race first-up. Took on much better company last preparation and was winless but recorded a Group 3 placing. In new stable now and he’s trialled as well as he usually does, working home nicely late behind Terravista in the latest. Not concerned about the big weight, there looks to be enough speed to allow him to run on and as I have a doubt over the second favourite off her trial I have to go with him.
Dangers: 6. Realise Potential won’t know himself with just 53kg and he’s coming off a win at Warwick Farm thanks largely to a daring ride and the fact he’s hard fit. That stands him in good stead and he can run well again. 4. Highly Geared is often overlooked but she is speedy, has a strong first-up record and is going to give a good sight in the small field.
How to play it: Kaepernick WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Kaepernick’s latest trial at Warwick Farm – September 22
|Race 6 - 4:15PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
4. Princess Posh ran up to her excellent first-up effort to win easily in a small field at Wyong. Then she was thrown into the Tibbie Stakes on her home track and ran an admirable sixth after being held up for much of the first half of the straight. Back in grade, obviously, and drawn well. I’d expect her to be very hard to beat.
Dangers: 8. I Am Serious has been off the scene for over a month and that’s the major query I have. She trialled nicely prior to a closing first-up second at the Farm where she started favourite and wasn’t disgraced. If all is in order she’s a serious danger and there’s every reason 1400m will suit. 1. Skylight Glow has drawn wide in both runs for the Lees stable, she wasn’t in it first-up at 1100m then just fair in the Tibbie. Different scenario for her here and she could be a sharp improver.
How to play it: Princess Posh E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Princess Posh’s sixth placing in the Tibbie Stakes – September 15
|Race 7 - 4:50PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Unlucky doesn’t quite do 3. Jaminzah justice for his fourth placing at Randwick behind Embley a month ago. Should have won, there’s little doubt. To me anyway. Freshened up for a slight drop in distance and worked hom as you’d expect in his trial on Monday. Assuming no traffic issues this time around he should be very hard to hold out. Small concern that he may be best at a mile but have to be with him. Punter’s Intel: Despite being held up Jaminzah ran 33.49 for his last 600m and covered more ground than the three placegetters.
Danger: Don’t be surprised if 4. Great Glen runs a very big race fresh on the back of his second trial where he was warming up late over 1200m. He ran a super race first-up last time in and while 1400m is short of his best he’ll be hitting the line strongly. 5. Peacock has disappointed me in two runs back, he’s had every chance on both occasions but if he does find his best he’s capable of going close. Hard to trust him now, though.
How to play it: Jaminzah WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds); Quinella with Great Glen.
Jaminzah’s unlucky fourth at Randwick – September 2
|Race 8 - 5:25PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB SPRINT (1000 METRES)|
Interesting race. 3. To Excess was outstanding smashing a small field first-up from a 13 month break at Kembla Grange. He was so strong to the line as he pulled away and to think he should have some upside fitness wise. Still a lightly raced galloper and drawn nicely, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t measure up to this race and hopefully the second-up syndrome doesn’t get him.
Dangers: 12. Mossman Gorge was a little plain in a Highway at Rosehill behind Suncraze but that was his second failure now at 1200m so he can be forgiven coming back in distance. Expect he’ll be right on the speed and if you’re forgiving he’s a big chance. 1. Latin Boy faces a bit of a test with the 62.5kg but he’s hard to knock with three wins from as many starts this time in.
How to play it: To Excess E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
To Excess wins impressively first-up at Kembla Grange - September 17