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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Saturday's Group 1 $1.5 million TAB Epsom Handicap (1600m) at Royal Randwick.

1. Ceolwulf (Joe Pride): Back where it all began. A year ago he carried 54kg to win this race, as favourite, coming with a booming finish down the middle. He repeated it a couple of weeks later in the King Charles III. Since then he’s held his rating at around the 115 mark and he’s the one horse in this race bringing the ‘real deal’ Group 1 form. There are no Via Sistinas, Fangirls, Lindermanns, Sir Delius’ and company here. So he’s very well placed up just 4kg. The catch is whether he needs that genuine, strong, Randwick mile pace he found in his two Group 1 wins or if he's now looking for longer. Drawn to find the outside and we’ll see where he’s at.

Percles (Pic: Steve Hart)

2. Pericles (Bjorn Baker): Perfectly ridden first-up in the Tramway to find a spot just off the speed from an awkward alley and he was there to pounce when they topped the rise. He put roughly the same margin on Private Eye as Ceolwulf did when he ran third in the 7 Stakes, perhaps that’s a tie in. Last time we saw him at the Randwick mile he ran a gallant fifth in the Doncaster after sitting up outside the leader, beaten three-quarters by Stefi Magnetica. What’s in his favour is where he’ll almost certainly land in the run, that’s right on the hammer of the leaders. And it can make him dangerous if he happens to skip away.

3. Yellow Brick (Tony & Maddysen Sears): Safe to say a lot more was expected of him going into the Bill Ritchie a couple of weeks ago but he just boxed away beaten three lengths by With Your Blessing. That horse had run third behind Pericles the start before. He does drop 4kg so he’s much better suited from a weight perspective and closer to the 53.5kg he carried into second in the Stradbroke in his career best effort. The draw isn’t terrible if they want to make use of it and come across with one of the expected leaders. He’s hard to tip on what we’ve seen of him this time around but he can produce a spike at times.

4. Autumn Glow (Chris Waller): Moment of truth, or the start of something special, for this unbeaten four-year-old. The only time she’s been tested to date was on that heavy 10 first-up over the short course and she was in cruise control as she won the Theo Marks second-up. She’s had the preparation to run the mile out and on what we’ve seen that won’t be what beats her you’d think. Doubt the barrier is a factor, she’d almost certainly have to make use of the long run down the back and look to cross over in behind the two on pacers. She’s in a bigger league now and to be fair it doesn’t look the deepest Epsom so she’s hard to go past.

5. Pier (Darryn & Briar Weatherley): Ran a course record to win over the mile at Eagle Farm in the winter and showed he’s in the game when resuming behind Autumn Glow in the Theo Marks. He spotted the mark a decent head start, and 2kg, and ran on pretty well though almost four lengths from her. Has a 3kg swing in his favour. Where they’ll go from the draw will be interesting, he’s between Magnatear and Autumn Glow and you’d imagine both will be going forward to different degrees. He’s in the game.

6. Willydoit (Ciaron Maher): Hard to miss him ducking and weaving his way through the field first-up in the Tramway running some quick sectionals to finish midfield on the line. There was no choice to be negative in that race, go back from the wide alley and look to have him running on. Completely different set up for him from barrier two where he won’t have to do any work and can land wherever he wants to in the run. Did win an NZ Derby but he arrives here fresh with a month between runs and tickover trial and you’d imagine he’ll love a Randwick mile. One of a number of horses here that wouldn’t shock if they went close.

7. Encap (Gary Portelli): Perennial backmarker who has been known to put himself right in the finish of a big race as evidenced when he ran third in the Doncaster back in April. He made ground without getting near Autumn Glow in the Theo Marks and is on the back up after dashing home in near race best sectionals when fourth in the Shannon. The fact he always gives away a start negates his handy draw to a degree and there doesn’t look to be high speed. But his Doncaster run, with only 1kg less, makes him an each-way hope if you’re game.

8. El Castello (Joe Pride): A rising star around this time last year as he won the Spring Champion Stakes and was probably beaten by the barrier in the Victoria Derby. Missed the autumn with injury and switched stables and you’d have to say his return was encouraging. He was beaten five lengths by Autumn Glow in the Theo Marks but naturally couldn’t sprint with her first-up off such a break. He’s had a tickover trial, blinkers go back on and gets to chart his own course from barrier one. Doubt he can turn the tables on the mare just yet but he can finish closer to her.

9. Depth Of Character (Annabel & Rob Archibald): A shade plain first-up in the Tramway but ran a much improved race in the Bill Ritchie two weeks ago as he ran into third placing. His best efforts last time in were in mile races, he won the Queensland Guineas and was runner-up in The Coast so there’s some case to be made that down on the 50kg he can run a competitive race.

Swiftfalcon (Pic: Steve Hart).

10. Swiftfalcon (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes): Funny horse to work out. He gets back and often leaves it all too late, whether by his own doing or circumstance, and when he was ridden forward he was outsprinted. In his two runs this time in he started in the market in the Tramway and did what Swiftfalcon does then somehow started favourite in the Cameron for the same result. Will the blinkers first time do the trick? Earlier this year he did finish under a length from Broadsiding and Aeliana in the Rosehill Guineas. Clearly has some talent, hard to be confident in though.

11. Fully Lit (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Was headed for the paddock before he scored a runaway win at Rosehill in mid-August and since then he’s held his form strongly. Gave a good sight up on speed in the Cameron at Newcastle as he held down third. This does look a throw at the stumps but what you’ll get with him is some sort of sight up on the speed and you’d imagine Gai & Adrian will be making use of the 50kg.

12. Verona Rose (Gary Portelli): Lightly raced mare who was given the chance to stay in her three-year-old autumn. Far from disgraced in the Vinery behind Treasurethe Moment but the Oaks wasn’t run to suit her. Excuses first-up at Wyong then she showed she’s hitting her form with a closing second in the Tibbie. That’s mares form but she is down 7kg and draws well for the step up to the mile. On face value she has some work to do but also still has upside.

13. Magnatear (Richard & Will Freedman): Noted on pacer drawn to take up that sort of role in what is clearly his biggest assignment to date. Started well in the market in the Cameron and boxed on well to hold fifth. Naturally finds this tougher, he’s racing quite well at present but will find a few of these particularly hard to hold off.

14. Lord Penman (Chris Waller): Most had this ex-Kiwi pegged as a coming winner based on his first-up placing at Rosehill some seven weeks ago. He then went five weeks into the Randwick mile in Benchmark 88 company, started a short priced favourite, and didn’t really get a clear crack at them though suspect he just finishes in the placings. Drops 9kg and clearly has the scope to win races, not sure it’s an Epsom right at this moment.

SPEED MAP: Magnatear from 12 should roll across and it’s a matter of whether he wants the lead or Fully Lit punches up underneath him to hold him out. They appear to be in control of the pace either way. From the inside El Castello could hold the box seat with Pericles landing outside. Where Autumn Glow fits in depends on the intent, the option looks there to use the two leaders to come over from the outside and look to slot in. Yellow Brick has the same opportunity. Pier might have to go back and imagine Ceolwulf is somewhat conservative without snagging right back.

SELECTIONS:
4 AUTUMN GLOW
1 Ceolwulf
2 Pericles
5 Pier

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Epsom meeting at Randwick