Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The new season three-year-olds who steal the spotlight at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday with the running of the $150,000 Group Three Ming Dynasty Quality (1400m) and the $150,000 Group Three San Domenico Stakes (1100m).
The rail is out 6m the entire and the track is rated a Good 3.
|Race 1 - 12:05PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Lifesaver matched motors with Another Sin in a thrilling Highway showdown a fortnight ago and with that horse now lining up in the San Domenico Stakes, Lifesaver should be able to make it three wins from four starts. He’ll strip fitter for his first up outing and from the middle draw, bounce out to settle in the first couple. The Matt Dunn yard are a force to be reckoned with in the Highway Handicaps with 11 already to their name. In second is Matt Dale, who looks to have the biggest danger to Lifesaver in the shape of Mossman Gorge.
Danger: Mossman Gorge was a very strong winner at Kembla Grange on debut and boasts a third to Gunnison and Acqume. It’s worth noting that both of his wins have come when being allowed to control the race from the front. Does he get that here from barrier 10? Hard to imagine. Nic’s Vendetta is no stranger to Highways lining up in his fourth straight and will run well again.
How to play it: Lifesaver ($2 TAB Fixed Odds)
Lifesaver fighting out the finish with Another Sin
|Race 2 - 12:45PM PRO IT HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Have been desperate so see Chatuchak get out in trip and at $4.40 with TAB Fixed Odds, she is worth the gamble out to 1500m to beat Awoke. The Lonhro mare was sent to the provincials last start and despite taking a while to warm to the task over 1200m, she proved too strong at the finish. Prior to that she wasn’t suited to sitting exposed outside the lead while first up was a complete forget given the traffic issues. If she can land one-out-one-back and get rolling at the top of the straight, she’ll take holding out.
Danger: Awoke hasn’t quite delivered on the promise that saw her beat Invincible Gem and Foxplay in her first two starts but now she has found her right grade, she has found the winners’ list again and held her form. Hard to see her not in the finish again.
How to play it: Chatuchak WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Awoke ($2.70)
Chatuchak’s confidence boosting Kembla win
|Race 3 - 1:20PM ASX THOMSON REUTERS CHARITY FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
One of the challenges of the early spring for punters is finding those horses that make a giant leap from two to three and tipping Marsupial is going to be one of them. The Street Cry colt burst onto the scene with an emphatic victory over Frolic at Canterbury before his form tapered off, despite running fourth in a Black Opal. His two trials this time in have been outstanding, the latest matching strides with proven Group One weight for age sprinter Spieth. Like how he fits into this race with 53kg against the older horses which includes Tango Rain, Improvement and Skylight Glow.
Danger: Tango Rain ran second in the San Domenico behind Star Turn at this corresponding meeting last year. He was posted wide the trip first up and wasn’t entitled to finish as close as he did. He’ll be very hard to beat as will underrated mare Improvement. Skylight Glow looks to be humming going off her trials but will spot these a big start.
How to play it: Marsupial WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Tango Rain ($3.40)
Marsupial’s latest trial – August 14
|Race 4 - 1:55PM PACIFIC BOATING HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
The last start win of Alward at Flemington was that of a stayer destined for bigger and better things. The five-year-old import really cleared out from his rivals which included the hyped Crocodile Rock. He’ll need to transfer his Melbourne form to Sydney but it doesn’t seem to worry Chris Waller’s gallopers. Waller believes that Alward could yet prove himself a lightweight Metrop contender. With Hugh Bowman steering on Saturday, he shouldn’t be left with any excuses. Has been crunched into even money with TAB Fixed Odds.
Danger: Vaucluse Bay suffered from the dreaded cardiac arrhythmia last start when $1.75 favourite. Put a pen through the run and it’s hard to ignore the fact that he beat Arbeitsam three starts back before bolting in at Rosehill. Quick Defence can figure if the race is run to suit. Waller trifecta?
How to play it: Alward WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds)
Vaucluse Bay – the last horse to beat Arbeitsam
|Race 5 - 2:30PM NEW CALEDONIA TRAVEL CONNECTION PREMIER'S CUP (1900 METRES)|
Classic Uniform looks very well placed here with a decisive fitness advantage over the current market favourite Broadside. Classic Uniform was no match at all for Arbeitsam last start but he held down second comfortably enough and it’s worth noting that in all five of his wins he has controlled the race from the front. He should get the chance to do that here punching up from the inside to hold out Broadside. Expect Tim Clark to try to pinch a break at the top of the straight.
Danger: Loyalty Man was a bit plain last start but suspect he was ripped out of his comfort zone by tearaway leader and winner Arebeitsam. He can bounce back. Destiny's Kiss not hopeless at odds while Broadside deserves respect but looks very short. Can see him drifting even further.
How to play it: Classic Uniform WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Classic Uniform’s last start second
|Race 6 - 3:05PM MONACO CUP - MING DYNASTY QUALITY (1400 METRES)|
Assimilate is learning his craft on the run and despite being far from the finished product, is still winning races. That’s the mark of a very smart horse. Last start this Sebring colt defeated Dracarys not has not only won since but also broken the Randwick track record (alright, it was wind assisted…). Drawing 9 of 10 isn’t ideal but with Runaway, Addictive Nature, and to a lesser extent Sambro engaged, master jock Hugh Bowman should be able to give Assimilate his chance to protect his unbeaten record.
Danger: Runaway only comes off a Canterbury maiden win but like the style of this colt. We saw what stablemate Gold Horizon did off a similar midweek win in the Up ‘N’ Coming last week. Only knock is the step back in trip. Respect Addictive Nature who will relish 1400m. He is creeping out to his right price now after opening too short at $3.50.
How to play it: Assimilate WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Assimilate beating Dracarys last start
|Race 7 - 3:45PM TPG TELECOM SAN DOMENICO STAKES (1100 METRES)|
Banking on class to prevail with Pariah. He made a sustained run to beat Menari on debut (who was luckless!) before running second to Property at Caulfield and then second to Catchy in the Blue Diamond. His Golden Slipper flop was put down to the heavy track. He has tuned up with two nice trials and although he has drawn widest, Perast, Another Sin, Madeenaty and Condor Heroes should ensure a genuine tempo. The Snowden camp have a massive opinion of this colt and rarely get it wrong. If he is a genuine Everest contender, he’d want to be winning this.
Danger: Hayes and Dabernig got the verdict with Formality last week and Madeenaty must be respected on the strength of her Flemington return. Crown Witness beat her (carrying 4kg less) and has since won the Quezette taking the prized scalp of Catchy. Shapes as the hardest for Pariah to chase down.
How to play it: Pariah WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Madeenaty ($7.50)
Pariah was beaten by Winx in his most recent trial – August 8
|Race 8 - 4:25PM LINDT HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Special Missile just keeps on winning. The four-year-old has won his last four on the trot and his last start win suggested he was far from done just yet. It’s no surprise to see him creep up in the weights which has seen Brenton Avdulla replaced with three kilo claimer Blaike McDougall. He’ll be asked to let Smart Missile stride forward from the wide gate to sort out the lead with fellow front-runner The Pharaoh. Special Missile won’t get it all his own way this time but he has been pretty dominant in all of his recent victories.
Danger: The Pharaoh of course is a threat as is Hogmanay after an encouraging first up run behind that very horse, The Pharoah. Can be a bit a bit hard to catch but the day you leave him out of multiples and quaddies is the day he pops up. Francesco on the back up is next best.
How to play it: Special Missile WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)
Special Missile making it four on the trot
|Race 9 - 5:05PM FIIG HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
On paper Bonny O’reilly looks to up against it lumping 59.5kg against some pretty seasoned male gallopers. However, she knows how to win, as her record of seven wins from 11 starts suggests. Sometimes it easy to overlook the obvious. She should get a lovely trailing run from the inside draw and thought her most recent Kembla Grange trial was outstanding. Bjorn Baker is very bullish about how well she has come up ahead of the spring and she’ll have some residual fitness from her Brisbane campaign too.
Danger: Supreme Effort is very dangerous fresh and is another that has trialled well. He showed last campaign he is not far off the better sprinters such as Kuro. Selita was a solid third first up and was only 1.3L off Bonny O’reilly over the winter. No Doubt the knockout.
How to play it: Bonny O’reilly WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Bonny O’reilly’s Kembla trial – August 16